DemDaily: Your Guide to Tuesday’s Primaries
May 16, 2022
Five states, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon will hold their primaries tomorrow, May 17.
Two of those states are important to Democrats' hopes of retaining control of the US Senate, while also testing Trump’s influence over GOP voters in the primaries.
|See: DemDaily: The 2022 Election Calendar|
2020 Presidential Vote: Biden 50%, Trump 48.8%
Incumbent: Republican Senator Pat Toomey (retiring)
General Election Rating: Toss Up
Democratic primary: Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, Congressman Conor Lamb (D-17), State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta and Jenkintown Borough Council member Alexandria Khalil.
Polling: A March 20-April 1, 2022 Franklin & Marshall College poll of registered voters, Fetterman was far ahead of the field with 53%, followed by Lamb at 14%, Kenyatta at 4%, Other at 6% and 22% undecided (MOE: ± 6.6%).
Fetterman, who suffered a mild stroke over the weekend, is "recovering quickly," and published a video of himself speaking normally, saying “our campaign isn’t slowing down.” The last-minute development is not expected to change the trajectory of the outcome.
Republican primary: Trump-endorsed celebrity doctor and television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, political commentator Kathy Barnette, 2018 Lieutenant Governor nominee Jeff Bartos, US Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, George Bochetto and Sean Gale.
Polling: According to an Emerson College poll conducted May 14-15 of likely voters, Oz led with 32% to Barnette's 27%, McCormick at 26%, Sands at 7% and Bartos at 6% (MOE: ± 3.0%).
Incumbent: Democratic Governor Tom Wolf (retiring/term-limited)
General Election Rating: Toss Up
Democratic primary: Attorney General Josh Shapiro, is unchallenged in the primary.
Republican primary: State Senator Doug Mastriano, former Congressman Lou Barletta, former US Attorney William McSwain, former Delaware County Councilmember Dave White, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, American Conservative Union Vice Chair Charlie Gerow, and cardiothoracic surgeon Nche Zama. State Senate President Jake Corman and former Congresswoman Melissa Hart both dropped out of the race last week and endorsed Barletta. Trump endorsed Mastriano May 14.
Polling: According to an Emerson College poll conducted May 14-15 of likely voters, Mastriano led with 42%, followed by Barletta 24%, Bill McSwain 13%, Dave White 10%, other candidates at 2% or less (MOE: ± 3.0%).
On the ballot: US Senate, US House (17, lost one due to redistricting), Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Senate and State House.
2020 Presidential Vote: Biden 48.7% v. Trump 50.1%
Incumbent: Republican Senator Richard Burr (retiring).
General Election Rating: Lean Republican
Democratic primary: Former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is the presumed nominee.
Republican primary: Trump-backed Congressman Ted Budd (13th CD), former Governor Pat McCrory, who has Burr's endorsement, former Congressman Mark Walker (6th CD), and eleven other contenders.
Polling: A May 7-9, 2022 The Hill/Emerson College poll of registered voters, showed Budd at 43%, McCrory at 16%, and Walker at 12%. The remaining candidates were at 2% or less (MOE: ± 4.5%)
|If no one candidate wins the May 17th primary by at least 30% of the vote plus one, then the top two will go to a primary runoff election, scheduled for July 26.|
In the Eleventh CD, Trump-endorsed and scandal-plagued freshman Republican Madison Cawthorn is facing seven Republican primary opponents, including State Senator Chuck Edwards, who has the support of US Senator Tim Tillis.
A field of six Democratic primary contenders is being led by Buncombe County Commissioner and pastor Jasmine Beach-Ferrara.
Other Congressional races to watch: the First CD, being vacated by retiring Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield, the Fourth CD, being vacated by retiring Democratic Congressman David Price, and the newly created 13th CD in the exurbs of Raleigh.
On the ballot: US Senate, US House (14, added one due to redistricting), State Senate, State House, State Supreme Court, Appellate Courts, Municipal, Schools Boards, Ballot Measures.
2020 Presidential Vote: Biden 33.1% v. Trump 63.8%
Race to watch: The Republican gubernatorial primary which features a matchup between incumbent Governor Brad Little who is being challenged by his Lieutenant Governor, Janice McGeachin, who has been endorsed by Trump.
On the ballot: US Senate, US House (2), Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Senate, State House, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Controller, Superintendent of Public Instruction, State Supreme Court, Appellate Courts, Municipal, Schools Boards, Ballot Measures.
2020 Presidential Vote: Biden 36.15% v. Trump 62.09%
On the ballot: US Senate, US House (6), Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Senate, State House, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Controller, Superintendent of Public Instruction, State Supreme Court, Appellate Courts, Municipal, Schools Boards, Ballot Measures.
2020 Presidential Vote: Biden 56.45% v. Trump 40.37%
Race to watch: The open gubernatorial contest, vacated by Democratic Governor Kate Brown, who is term-limited. Both parties are fielding primaries of 15 or more candidates.
On the ballot: US Senate, US House (6, gained one under redistricting), Governor, State Senate, State House, Labor Commissioner, State Supreme Court, Appellate Courts, Municipal, Ballot Measures, Recalls
Find Voter information in Your State: iwillvote.com
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Sources: Ballotpedia, NPR, CBS, FiveThirtyEight, New York Times