DemDaily: Who Governs? The 2018 Governors Races
October 1, 2018
Nationwide, Republicans control two-thirds of the Governors' seats. The midterm elections, however, present an opportunity for Democrats to not only reverse that trend, but make a critical impact on the 2020 elections and the future makeup of Congress.
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Republicans currently hold 33 Governors' seats to Democrats' 16. There are 36 Governors races are up in 2018, with Republicans defending 26 seats compared to Democrats' nine.
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As a state's highest-ranking elected official, Governors are administrators of their state, responsible for dictating policy, overseeing the budget, agencies, military forces and its executive branch. The power of each Governor varies with each state constitution, depending on his or her veto power over legislation and the official body that draws the state's electoral map in redistricting.
As chief executive of his or her state, a Governor is more similar to a US President, but on a smaller state scale (and why serving as Governor is considered the best training ground for the White House).
Current Gubernatorial Map
In midterm elections, gubernatorial elections usually follow the political environment, which is good news for Democrats.
In 2018, Democrats are favored to pick up as many as nine seats, with top pick targets in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin.
By contrast, Republicans, at present, are favored to pickup only one independently-held seat, in Alaska.
But the long term outcome of 2018 will be particularly criticial to the 2021 redistricting process where, in some states, taking the Governor's mansion means taking control of the redistricting process and the state's next Congressional map.
| According to National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC), the Governor's races most important to shifting or retaining the balance of power in the redistricting process, include: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. |
Top Targeted Governor's Races
Red/Blue=Held by Republican/Democrat. Incumbents bolded. If Independent, grouped with alligned Party.
Ratings based on review of major publications, with final call by DemList
|
State
|
Incumbent Status |
Republican Nominee
|
Democratic Nominee | Rating |
|
Alabama
|
On Ballot | Kate Ivey | Walt Maddox | Safe Rep |
|
Alaska
|
On Ballot | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Bill Walker (Ind), Mark Begich (D) |
Lean Rep |
|
Arizona
|
On Ballot | Doug Ducey | David Garcia | Lean Rep |
|
Arkansas
|
On Ballot | Asa Hutchinson | Jared Henderson | Safe Rep |
|
California
|
OPEN (Jerry Brown /Term-Limited) |
John Cox | Gavin Newsom | Safe Dem |
|
Colorado
|
OPEN (John Hickenlooper
/Term-Limited)
|
Walker Stapleton | Jared Polis | Lean Dem |
|
Connecticut
|
OPEN (Dan Malloy /Retiring) |
Bob Stefanowski | Ned Lamont | Lean Dem |
|
Florida
|
OPEN (Rick Scott/
Running for Senate)
|
Ron DeSantis
|
Andrew Gillum | Toss Up |
|
Georgia
|
OPEN (Nathan Deal
/Retiring)
|
Brian Kemp | Stacy Abrams | Toss Up |
|
Hawaii
|
On Ballot | Andria Tupola | David Ige | Safe Dem |
|
Idaho
|
OPEN (Butch Otter /Retiring) |
Brad Little | Paulette Jordan | Safe Rep |
|
Illinois
|
On Ballot |
Bruce Rauner
|
J.B. Pritzker | Likely Dem |
|
Iowa
|
On Ballot | Kim Reynolds | Fred Hubbell | Toss Up |
|
Kansas
|
OPEN (Jeff Coyler /Lost Nomination) |
Kris Kobach | Laura Kelly | Toss Up |
|
Maine
|
OPEN (Paul LePage /Term Limited) |
Shawn Moody | Janet Mills | Lean Dem |
|
Maryland
|
On Ballot | Larry Hogan | Ben Jealous | Likely Rep |
|
Massachusetts
|
On Ballot | Charlie Baker | Jay Gonzalez | Safe Rep |
|
Minnesota
|
OPEN (Mark Dayton /Retiring) |
Jeff Johnson | Tim Walz (DFL/DemFarmLabor) | Likely Dem |
|
Michigan
|
OPEN (Rick Snyder
/Term Limited)
|
Bill Schuette |
Gretchen Whitmer
|
Likely Dem |
|
Nebraska
|
On Ballot | Pete Ricketts | Bob Krist | Safe Rep |
|
Nevada
|
OPEN (Brian Sandoval /Term Limited) |
Adam Laxalt |
Steve Sisolak
|
Lean Dem |
|
New Hampshire
|
On Ballot | Chris Sununu | Molly Kelly | Lean Rep |
|
New Mexico
|
OPEN (Susana Martinez
/Term Limited)
|
Steve Pearce
|
Michelle Lujan Grisham | Likely Dem |
|
New York
|
On Ballot | Marcus Molinaro | Andrew Cuomo | Safe Dem |
|
Ohio
|
OPEN (John Kasich
/Term Limited)
|
Mark Dewine |
Richard Cordrey
|
Toss Up |
|
Oklahoma
|
OPEN (Mary Fallin /Term Limited |
Kevin Stitt | Drew Edmondson | Lean Rep |
|
Oregon
|
On Ballot | Knute Buehler | Kate Brown | Likely Dem |
|
Pennsylvania
|
On Ballot | Scott Wagner | Tom Wolf | Likely Dem |
|
Rhode Island
|
On Ballot | Allan Fung | Gina Raimondo | Lean Dem |
|
South Carolina
|
On Ballot | Henry McMaster | James Smith, Jr. | Likely Rep |
|
South Dakota
|
OPEN (Dennis Daugaard
/Term Limited) |
Kristi Noem | Billie Sutton | Likely Rep |
|
Tennessee
|
OPEN (Bill Haslam /Term Limited) |
Bill Lee | Karl Dean | Likely Rep |
|
Texas
|
On Ballot | Greg Abbott | Lupe Valdez | Safe Rep |
|
Vermont
|
On Ballot |
Phil Scott
|
Christine Hallquist | Safe Rep |
|
Wisconsin
|
On Ballot |
Scott Walker
|
Tony Evers | Toss Up |
|
Wyoming
|
OPEN (Matt Mead /Term Limited) |
Mark Gordon | Mary Throne | Safe Rep |
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