DemDaily: Weathering The Storm
July 10, 2024
As if following the path of Tropical Storm Beryl, the 2024 presidential election is weathering its own turbulence in the wake of the Thursday, June 27 CNN presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The performance of the two rivals, who faced off on a national stage for the first time in nearly four years, further upended the already historical contest.
While an unchecked Trump spewed more than 30 brazen lies, it was a weary Biden, just back from four days overseas, and sick with a cold and raspy voice, that generated widespread concerns.
The fallout was immediate, setting off a firestorm of reaction that has yet to reach a public conclusion.
| Despite the alarm, post-debate polls show only minor movement in Trump's direction. In Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker, Trump led Biden by 3.3 points -- a 1.8-point swing in Trump’s favor since the debate, and in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker. Trump was up by 1.6 points. |
June 28, Friday: The New York Times Editorial Board calls on Biden to drop his reelection campaign.
The day after the debate, at a campaign event in North Carolina, a reinvigorated and defiant Biden tried to assuage alarmed supporters, “I know I’m not a young man. I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know what I do know … when you get knocked down, you get back up!”
June 29, Saturday: Other publications and public figures follow, issuing panicked calls for Biden to step aside. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) holds a call to update its more than 450 members on the positive progress of the campaign.
June 30, Sunday: Biden meets at Camp David with his family, who tell him to stay the course, with his wife Jill and son Hunter reportedly the most vocal.
July 1, Monday: The US Supreme Court rules that Trump, and future presidents, have broad immunity from prosecution for their actions in office -- making it unlikely that the Special Counsel's Election Interference case against Trump will go to trial before the election. The decision amplifies the stakes of a "king" Trump winning back the White House.
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July 2, Tuesday: Congressman Roy Doggett (TX) became the first sitting Democratic representative to break ranks publicly and tell the president to end his candidacy. Nine others would follow.
July 3, Wednesday: Biden meets at the White House with Democratic state governors who emerge from the meeting reasserting their support for Biden.
July 5, Friday: Biden sits for an interview with ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos, to mixed reviews. “Look, I mean, if the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I’ll get out of the race,” he said. “The Lord Almighty’s not coming down.”
| The Count: The Biden Campaign announced that June was their best fundraising month of the campaign, with a haul of $127 million. Most significantly, $38 million was raised in the four days following the June 27 debate. The campaign also announces a $50 million ad buy in July in battleground states. |
July 6, Saturday: Senator Mark Warner (VA) reportedly organizes, then cancels, a small group of Democratic Senators to discuss the best path forward for Biden.
July 7, Sunday: House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY) convenes a call of members where a number of lawmakers stopped short of calling for a new nominee. Among them: Jamie Raskin (MD), Don Beyer (VA) and Jim Himes (CT). Members of the Black Caucus were vociferous in their defense of the president.
July 8, Monday: Congress returns from recess. Biden sends a letter to Democratic lawmakers saying he is "firmly committed to staying in this race, to running this race to the end, and to beating Donald Trump."
President Biden holds a virtual meeting Monday night with the roughly 60-member Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), which includes James Clyburn (SC) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY), who committed their unwavering support.
Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Nanette Barragán (CA) and Deputy Chair Adriano Espaillat (NY) released a statement saying they “stand with President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.”
July 9, Tuesday: Both House and Senate Democrats meet in separate closed-door meetings described as "constructive," but still largely inconclusive.
Following the Senate meeting, Majority Whip Dick Durbin says “it remains to be seen” if Biden should still be the party’s presidential nominee. Battleground state Senators Jon Tester (MT) and Sherrod Brown (OH), as well as Colorado’s Michael Bennet, reportedly expressed concerns about Biden's ability to beat Trump in November. In contrast, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer left the meeting reaffirming, “I’m with Joe,” and Senator Alex Padilla (CA) declared, "To me it’s a no-brainer. I continue to be all in” for Biden.
| Swing States: A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll published July 7 showed Biden leading Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, the President is now within the margin of error. Overall, the poll found that Trump is leading Biden by only 2% across the seven states -- 47% to 45%. This is the closest Biden has been to overtaking Trump since Bloomberg started tracking the seven states last October. |
July 10, Wednesday: Biden speaks at the Executive Council meeting of the AFL-CIO which is composed of more than 50 officials from unions representing 12.5 million union members. AFL President Liz Shuler assures Biden, “You’ve always had our back — we have your back.”
Speaker Emeritus Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (CA) says in an interview on MSNBC. "It is up to the President to decide if he is going to run. We are all encouraging him to make that decisions because time is running short."
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Kimberly Scott
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Sources: New York Times, CNN, Forbes, Axios, AP, NBC, CBS, Washington Post, Vox, CNN, Politico, The Hill
