DemDaily: Virginia: The Race to Watch
February 6, 2025
There are only two gubernatorial races up in 2025, New Jersey and Virginia, in what will be the first statewide test of voters since Donald Trump reclaimed the White House.
The moderately blue Virginia, in particular, has long been considered a bellwether for the following year's elections.
| Status of the Governors: Democrats hold 23 gubernatorial seats to Republicans' 27 nationwide. Of the 50 state governors, 12 are female (8D/4R), one is Hispanic (Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico), one is Black (Wes Moore of Maryland), and one is Native American (Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma). |
VIRGINIA
Incumbent: Glenn Youngkin (R) Term Limited
Primary: Tuesday, June 17, 2025
The Old Dominion
In 2019, under Democratic Governor Ralph Northam, voters in the Old Dominion sealed the state's transformation to blue by flipping both legislative chambers to Democrats, giving them their first trifecta since 1994.
Shifting demographics and rapid population growth over the last decade thrust the state into the battleground category, with Virginia voting Democrat in the last four presidential elections.
Barack Obama broke the GOP's 52-year streak with wins in 2008 and 2012, followed by Hillary Clinton with 5.4% over Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden with 54.11% to Trump's 44% in 2020. Kamala Harris carried Virginia in 2024, defeating Trump 51.83%-46.05%.
Democrats experienced a devasting blow; however, when, amid low White House approval ratings, Republicans narrowly swept the state's top three offices in 2021 -- putting the Trump-endorsed former hedge fund CEO Glenn Youngkin, who defeated former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) 50.58% to 48.64%, in the governor's mansion.
In the same election, Republicans regained control of the Statehouse, only to have Democrats flip the chamber back to a 51-seat majority on November 7, 2024. Virginia's current US Senators are Democrats Mark Warner (elected 2008) and Tim Kaine (elected 2012), and six of its 11 congressional districts are held by Democrats.
| New Hampshire and Vermont are also the only two states where Governors serve two-year terms, as opposed to the standard four. Neither state imposes term limits. Virginia is the only state to limit the office to one term or non-consecutive terms. |
2025 Gubernatorial Election
The landscape of the 2025 governors race appears to be established early with clear frontrunners in each party, with little or no opposition expected in the June 17, 2025 primary.
Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, who announced her bid for the Democratic nomination in November 2023, has the endorsements of Kaine, all six Virginia Democratic members of Congress, and former Governor Ralph Northam, among others
.A former CIA intelligence office, Spanberger was elected to represent the expansive Frederickburg-based 7th Congressional District in 2018, unseating incumbent Congressman Dave Brat (R) 50.3%-48.4% and breaking the Republican party's 38-year hold on the seat. She won reelection in 2020 and 2022 by 4.6% before entering the gubernatorial race.
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, who formally entered the race in September 2024, has the endorsement of Younkin, had served in the Statehouse from 2002-2004 before running unsuccessfully against Democratic Congressman Bobby Scott (CD-3) in 2004. She served on the Virginia Board of Education and was a write-in candidate for US Senate in 2018.
A former US Marine, small businesswoman, and an "unapologetic" conservative, in 2020 Earle-Sears served as National Chairwoman of the pro-Trump PAC "Black Americans to Re-elect the President."
In 2021, she prevailed over State Delegate Hala Ayala (D), who is of Afro-Latina, Lebanese and Irish descent, 50.7% to 49.3%, to become not only the first woman but the first woman of color to hold the position of Lt. Governor in the state's history.
Either of them would be Virginia's first female governor, while Earle-Sears would also be the first Black woman governor in US history.
| .A January 18–20, 2025 poll of likely voters by Republican firm co/efficient showed Spanberger and Earle-Sears in a dead heat at 40% – 40% with 20% undecided (MOE: ± 3.3%). A January 6–13, 2025 Christopher Newport University poll of registered voters showed Spanberger leading Earl-Sears 44% – 39%, with 18% undecided (MOE: ± 3.6%). |
As of the last public fundraising report ending December 31, 2024, Spanberger had raised a total of $9,596,543, including $1,343,901 transferred from her US House Committee, with a reported $6,551,836 cash on hand.
Earle-Sears, who entered the race almost a year after Spanberger, reported raising a total of $2,563,085, with $2,111,516 on hand.
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Kimberly Scott
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Related
DemDaily: The 2025 Election Calendar 2/5/25
DemDaily: Where Things Stand: Governors 11/13/24
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Sources: CNN, AP, VPAP, NPR, VA SOS
