DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Maine, Michigan
September 18, 2026
46 Days Out. Democrats need to flip a net of four Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber and those odds are increasing daily -- with the Nate Silver's Bulletin upgrading the likelihood to 59% this week.
The Top Targets
Of the six top toss-up races, Democrats are defending one -- critical presidential battleground state Michigan, where incumbent Gary Peters is retiring.
The GOP holds the remaining five, including Alaska (Sullivan), Maine (Collins), Ohio (Husted), and the open seats in Iowa (Ernst) and Texas (Cornyn).
Significantly, all are also holding competitive gubernatorial elections, with only Maine considered a safely
| 35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats (including four open seats) and Republicans defending 22 seats (including eight open seats). The GOP holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate. |
Today: Maine and Michigan
MAINE
US Senate: Incumbent Senator Susan Collins, 78, who is the only GOP senator facing re-election in a state that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won in 2024, is the Senate's most vulnerable Republican.
A centrist conservative who has often cast the swing vote on key legislation, she has been elected five times in the moderate blue state that otherwise has voted for a Democrat statewide in every presidential election since 1988.
In the fight of her career, Collins is facing former three-term State Senate President Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from Allagash, running as a working-class populist. Jackson, 58, ran unsuccessfully for the 2026 gubernatorial nomination, losing the June 9 primary to Hannah Pingree.
He was elected in an emergency July 25 meeting of the Maine Democratic Party following the very high-profile June 10 withdrawal from the race of original Democratic nominee Graham Platner -- following public allegations of sexual assault by former girlfriends.
Fundraising: Although Jackson began with an extreme fundraising disadvantage -- starting from zero after the compressed nomination process and unable to transfer funds from his earlier gubernatorial run -- he pulled in $1.2 million on ActBlue the first day of his nomination, a single-day record on the platform that month.
His campaign claimed raising more than $7 million in the first month of his candidacy, but more current figures will not be available until the third-quarter finance report, due October 15. Collins reported total receipts of $16.2 million as of the June 30 second-quarter finance report, with $11 million cash on hand.
Outside groups and super PACs have poured funds into the high-stakes contest, with Republican-aligned groups, including the Senate Leadership Fund, Pine Tree Results PAC, and One Nation, among others.
According to AdImpact, as of August 14, media ad buys totaling $46.6 million against Jackson and/or for Collins had been reserved from September 1-November 3.
Democratic-aligned groups, including the Senate Majority PAC, Government That Works, and Majority Forward, have reserved roughly $26.4 million as of August 14 for the same period. Total ad reservations, however, for the entire race are projected to reach nearly $193 million.
Polling: A September 2-8 YouGov poll of 1,335 likely voters showed Jackson leading Collins 48% to 44%, with 6% undecided and 1% voting for someone else (MOE: ±4.9%).
Also on the Ballot: The open Maine gubernatorial race to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Janet Mills, where former State House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D), daughter of Congresswoman Chellie Pingree, has a double-digit lead over veteran and former US Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles (R).
| See: DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Alaska, Iowa 9/17/26 |
MICHIGAN
US Senate: The open seat in critical presidential battleground state Michigan, where two-term Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring, is the GOP's top target for flipping -- and essential to both parties in the battle for control of the upper chamber.
Despite close contests, Republicans have not won a US Senate race in Michigan since 1994. In the 2024 race to succeed four-term Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) defeated former GOP Congressman Mike Rogers 48.64%-48.30%. In the same year, Trump reclaimed the Wolverine State, defeating Kamala Harris by 1.4%.
Mike Rogers, who retired in 2015 after seven terms and served as a CNN commentator and producer until his 2024 Senate bid, is back as the Republican nominee in the 2026 race. He entered the race in April 2025 with the support of national Republican leadership and, three months later, after he cleared the field, Trump's endorsement.
While Rogers was uncontested in the August 4 primary, Democrats underwent one of the most contentious primaries of 2026, with former Wayne County Department of Health Director and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeating four-term Congresswoman Haley Stevens 48.48%-47.51%. The victory for El-Sayed, who is also a Rhodes Scholar, was considered a major win for the party's left wing.
Fundraising: Despite his opponent's significant head start on the general election, El-Sayed significantly outraised Rogers in the Q2 June 30 fundraising report, $4.5 million to Rogers' $3.2 million. In total receipts, El-Sayed reported raising $14.5 million, with $2.5 million cash on hand, compared with Rogers' $10.8 million raised, with $4.47 million cash on hand.
As with all the top-tier races, outside groups are playing a significant role, with the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund and Republican-aligned super PACs having spent or committed $80 million to the race. That does not include the recent endorsement and undisclosed support pledged by Elon Musk.
Democratic leadership's Senate Majority PAC is investing $30 million, but because El-Sayed had publicly said he didn't want super PAC help, those efforts -- while independently ongoing -- are not widely publicized.
Polling: In a just-released September 16-17 InsiderAdvantage poll of likely voters, El-Sayed leads Rogers 47%-45%, with 5% undecided and 3% voting for someone else (MOE: ±2.83%).
Also on the Ballot: In the gubernatorial election to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, two-term Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has expanded her lead to double digits in most recent polling over Republican State Representative John James.
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