DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Alaska, Iowa
September 17, 2026
At less than seven weeks out from the midterms, and the primary season officially over, Democrats' chance of flipping the US Senate is within reach -- with the Silver Bulletin upgrading the likelihood to 59% today.
The Top Targets
The GOP holds five of the six toss-up races, including Alaska (Sullivan), Maine (Collins), Ohio (Husted), and the open seats in Iowa (Ernst) and Texas (Cornyn).
Democrats are fighting to hold on to critical battleground Michigan, where incumbent Gary Peters is retiring.
Significantly, all are also holding competitive gubernatorial elections, with only Maine considered a safely Democratic seat (see DemDaily Governors Ratings).
| 35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats (including four open seats) and Republicans defending 22 seats (including eight open seats). With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate. |
Up First: Alaska and Iowa
ALASKA
Senate: While still reliably red in presidential elections, awarding Trump a 13-point victory in 2024, Democrats have secured a minimum of 40% in statewide races since 2004.
The Frontier State is proudly the country’s most independent by registration, with 47% of voters identifying as undeclared; 14.2% nonpartisan; 24.28% Republican; 12.2% Democrat; and other minor parties (Libertarian, Alaskan Party, Constitution, etc.) 1.8%.
In Alaska's August 18 nonpartisan blanket primary, where the top four candidates advance to a ranked-choice general election in November, former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola comfortably secured the top slot with 49.5% to incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan's 41.4%. Former teacher Daniel J. Sullivan (R), who ran in part to sow confusion with the name, garnered 2.5% and minister Gerald Heikes (R) 1.1%.
Senator Sullivan, 61, unseated incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich in 2014 by just over 6,000 votes and was reelected in 2020 by 12.7%. He is a reliable Trump conservative who votes to the right of most Alaskans.
A former Orutsararmiut Native Council tribal judge and state legislator, Peltola, 53, won the August 2022 Congressional District Special Election to succeed the late Republican Congressman Don Young, who held the seat for 49 years. She defeated Trump-endorsed former Governor Sarah Palin (R) and was easily elected to a full term in November 2022, fending off another challenge by Palin and Nick Begich (R) by more than 20 points. She was the first Alaska Native politician elected to Congress.
While Peltola was narrowly defeated in 2024 by Begich, 48.4% to 46.3%, she still ranks as the Frontier States' most popular figure, with a 49% public favorability rating.
Fundraising: According to FEC filings, Peltola had raised a record $18.5 million through the end of July, with $4.6 million cash on hand -- 96% of which came from individual donors. Sullivan, who started with $2.1 million from his previous campaign, had raised $11.23 million total, with approximately $7.3 million cash on hand.
Polling: A September 8-11, 2026 Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research/AARP survey of likely voters released today showed Peltola leading Sullivan 46%-41%, with 7% undecided. A separate 4% supported the other Sullivan and 3% supported Heikes (MOE: ±3.5%).
Also on the Ballot: The open gubernatorial race, vacated by term-limited Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy, where two of the final four candidates coming out of the August 18 primary have since dropped out or been disqualified. Following the chaotic reshuffle, former democratic State Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has a significant lead.
IOWA
US Senate: In the open seat to succeed two-term Republican Senator Joni Ernst, State Representative Joshua Turek, who had the supportive Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and three-term GOP Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, who was endorsed by Trump, both easily won their June 2 primaries.
Turek, who represents Council Bluffs, is a former two-time Paralympic gold medalist (Men's National Wheelchair Basketball Team) and represents the best chance Democrats have had of taking back the former Midwest Battleground state since Barack Obama won twice.
Although Iowa has since trended Republican, with Hawkeye State voters awarding Trump a 13-point victory in 2024, its agricultural economy is suffering under Trump's tariff policies and the war in Iran.
Fundraising: Hinson, whose Second Congressional District is based in Cedar Rapids, had a notable fundraising lead as of the June 30 second-quarter finance report, with a total of $10.2 million raised and $6.75 million cash on hand.
Turek, who entered the race just three weeks prior to Hinson, on August 12, 2025, had raised $6.3 million and had $2.36 million on hand as of June 30.
Polling: A September 3-8, 2026 YouGov poll of registered voters shows Turek leading Hinson 44%-43% (MOE: ±3.5%).
Also on the Ballot: The open gubernatorial race, vacated by the retirement of Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, where State Auditor Rob Sand (D) is consistently leading businessman Zach Lahn (R) by an average of 4-7%.
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