DemDaily: Senate Top Tier: Can Democrats Reclaim Ohio?
September 22, 2026
Of the 35 US Senate seats up for election in 2026, the ultimate balance of power in the upper chamber, where Republicans hold a 53-47 GOP majority, will depend on the outcome of 10 vulnerable seats -- with Republicans defending seven and Democrats three.
Of the 10, six are considered "toss-ups," with three of the remaining four closing going into the last six weeks.
Democrats need to flip a net of four Senate seats to take control -- with oddsmakers giving them an average of 57.5% of reaching that goal.
The Toss Ups
Democrats are defending the critical presidential battleground state of Michigan, where incumbent Gary Peters is retiring. The GOP holds the other five: Alaska (Sullivan), Maine (Collins), Ohio (Husted), and the open seats in Iowa (Ernst) and Texas (Cornyn).
| See: DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Alaska, Iowa 9/17/26
DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Maine, Michigan 9/18/26 |
OHIO
US Senate: One of the most consequential and contentious US Senate races of 2026 is between former three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and interim GOP Senator Jon Husted.
The Buckeye State
Once the bellwether of the country, the former Midwest battleground state broke its 52-year record of voting with the winning presidential candidate when it awarded Donald Trump an eight-point victory over Joe Biden in 2020. By 2024, Ohio earned its red-state wings, voting for Trump 55.14%-43.93% over Kamala Harris.
The GOP holds a trifecta, with the governor's office and veto-proof supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, and a triplex, with the governor, attorney general and secretary of state all Republican.
While the Buckeye State hasn't elected a Democrat to any statewide executive office since 2006, all five, including the GOP-held treasurer and auditor, are open this year due to term limits.
The Incumbent Challenger: A populist champion of the working class, Brown served in Congress for seven terms before being elected to the US Senate in 2006 -- unseating two-term Republican incumbent (and now Governor) Mike DeWine, 56.16%-43.82%. He was reelected in 2012 by 14 points, and in 2018 with a 7-point margin by an increasingly Republican
In the most expensive contest of the 2024 cycle (in total $450 million), Brown lost his reelection bid to wealthy GOP businessman Bernie Moreno by 3.5%. Consistently ranked as one of the most popular swing-state senators while in office, Brown, 73, outperformed Harris by 7.6% points, but was unable to overcome Trump's pull at the top of the ticket.
The Interim Senator: A former speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives, Husted, 58, was elected Secretary of State in 2010 and reelected in 2014 before running for Lieutenant Governor as DeWine's running mate in 2018. Both were reelected in 2022, with Husted, a pro-life fiscal conservative, receiving 62.4% of the vote against five challengers.
He was tapped by DeWine in January 2025 to serve as interim Senator after JD Vance's resignation to become Vice President. His appointment ends with the November 2026 election.
The winner will serve the remainder of Vance’s unexpired six-year term, which runs through 2028. As this is a Senate Special Election, the victor will be sworn in as soon as the results are certified.
Fundraising: As of the second-quarter FEC filing ending June 30, Brown had raised a total of $38.6 million, with $16.2 million cash on hand, compared with Husted's $14.3 million raised with over $11 million on hand. Brown outraised Husted in the second quarter, $17.1 million to $7.7 million.
According to AdImpact, the race has already drawn $298 million in ad spending -- primarily by outside groups -- as of mid September.
| Polling: A September 14-16, 2026 Trafalgar Group (Republican) poll of likely voters had Brown leading Husted 45.4%-41.5%, 7% undecided, and 6% other (MOE: ±2.9%) A September 1-10, 2026 BGSU/YouGov poll of likely voters showed Brown at 48%, Husted at 45%, and 7% other (MOE: ±3.96%). |
Also on the Ballot: The same BGSU/YouGov poll shows parallel numbers in the highly competitive gubernatorial contest to succeed DeWine. Among likely voters, former Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton (D) leads billionaire tech entrepreneur and former 2024 GOP Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 48%-45%, with 7% preferring someone else.
All four of the other open statewide executive offices are considered highly competitive.
Two of the state's seven Supreme Court justices are up for reelection, including the lone Democrat, Jennifer Brunner.
The US House delegation has 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats, with all 15 incumbents running for re-election. Three -- CD-7 (R/Miller), CD-9 (D/Kaptur) and CD-1 (D/Landsman) -- are top targets.
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