DemDaily: US Senate: Taking Back Texas!
September 25, 2026
The balance of power in the United States Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 GOP majority, rests on 10 vulnerable seats as we count down to one of the most consequential midterm elections of our time.
Of those, we rate six as "toss-ups," with the remaining four waiting in the wings to shift.
The Toss Ups
The GOP is defending five top targets: Alaska (Sullivan), Maine (Collins), Ohio (Husted), and the open seats in Iowa (Ernst) and Texas (Cornyn). Democrats are defending the critical presidential battleground state of Michigan, where two-term incumbent Gary Peters is retiring.
| Democrats need to flip a net four seats to take majority control of the upper chamber -- with oddsmakers giving them an average 57.5% chance of reaching that goal. Nate Silver's Bulletin rates Texas as the single most likely tipping-point state for Senate control, with a 13% chance of being the seat that decides the majority. |
TEXAS
US Senate: The high-stakes race in Texas, the country's largest Republican state and second only to California in presidential electoral votes, portends the most significant national implications of the 2026 Senate elections.
The showdown between controversial, alt-right state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative and Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico has become the national cause celebre of evil versus good -- symbolizing the worst of the Republican Party under Donald Trump versus the hope of a new generation of Democratic leaders answering the call for change.
The contentious contest provides Democrats their best opportunity in over three decades at winning statewide in Texas.
The Lone Star State
Democrats controlled Texas politics for over 100 years, until the 1960s saw small Republican gains, and eventually the defection of conservative Democrats to the GOP in the 1980s. The Bush Family Dynasty solidified the growing dominance of the Republican Party in state politics, which became complete in the national "Republican Revolution" of the mid-1990s.
The GOP controls the Governor's mansion, all statewide offices, and both chambers of the legislature -- which draws the electoral map, subject to veto by the Governor. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Texans have since voted Republican in every presidential election, delivering Trump a 56.14%-42.46% victory over Kamala Harris in 2024.
Despite the Republican stronghold, rapid population growth and shifting demographics over the last decade have put the Lone Star State in play, with a steady increase in Democratic performance on the local and statewide level.
Congressman Beto O'Rourke's (D) 2018 Senate campaign came within 215,000 votes of ousting Republican Senator Ted Cruz. GOP Governor Greg Abbott first won office in 2014 by more than 20 points, which shrank to 13 in 2018, and to just under 11 points in 2022.
The GOP enjoyed a brief resurgence in 2024, in part due to Lone Star Latino voters, who gave the Republican presidential candidate an unprecedented 55% share of their vote. They also helped deliver an 8.5-point victory for Cruz over Democratic challenger Congressman Colin Allred -- with a 17-point jump in support compared to the Senator's 2018 race. The landscape for 2026, however, has significantly changed.
| Texas' Hispanic population, which has more than doubled since 2000, and accounts for roughly 40% of the electorate and 32% of eligible voters, are now turning out in record numbers against the GOP -- alienated by Trump's mass immigrant deportation program. In the March 3 Democratic primary, Latinos cast more votes in five different rural majority-Latino counties than those cast for Harris in 2024. Significantly, Talarico won 55% of the vote across those five counties. |
The Evil: A longtime Trump ally, the embattled and abrasive Paxton first served in the State House and Senate before being elected state Attorney General in 2014. He was reelected twice with the support of the MAGA wing of the party -- despite significant legal and ethical controversies throughout his tenure.
That included a 2015 criminal indictment on securities fraud, a 2020 FBI investigation after aides reported him for bribery and abuse of office, and a 2020 whistleblower lawsuit by former staffers who were awarded $6.6 million -- which was billed to the state.
The Texas State Bar Association filed a professional misconduct suit against Paxton for his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, and in 2023, he was impeached by the Texas House on 20 articles of bribery, abuse of public trust, obstruction, and the securities-fraud case -- but was acquitted by the GOP State Senate.
Paxton challenged four-term Senator John Cornyn, a stalwart conservative who served in Senate Republican leadership and had the support of the national establishment, for the GOP nomination in the most expensive Senate primary in US history, with over $110 million spent on advertising alone.
Cornyn, 74, and Paxton, 63, emerged from the March 3 primary in a 42%-41% dead heat and advanced to the May 26 runoff, where, after a May 18 endorsement push by Trump, Paxton prevailed by 27 points. Trump begrudged Cornyn for his late endorsement of the president's 2024 campaign, accusing the Senator of disloyalty.
The Good: In a stunning upset, Talarico, 37, who represents Austin, defeated two-term Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett 52.4%-46.2% in the March 3 Democratic primary.
An eighth-generation Texan, former middle school teacher and champion of public education, Talarico flipped a historically Republican swing district in a 2018 special election to become the youngest member of the Texas House. Over four terms, he would become the lead sponsor of nearly 200 bills.
A "faith-driven populist," Talarico drew early attention as "a soft-spoken seminarian with a choir boy's face," whose direct engagement of issues and compelling scripture-laced floor speeches, observed TIME, authentically and "nimbly mixed the Gospels with an avowed progressivism." Texas Monthly named him one of the Top 10 Best Legislators of 2021, and, in 2023, Politico profiled him as possibly "the next big thing in Texas politics."
A staunch defender of the separation of church and state, he has drawn on his faith and political pulpit to speak against Christian nationalism and was a leading opponent of state-mandated displays of the Ten Commandments in public schools. His viral speeches confronting Republican colleagues over the issue fueled a national social media following.
In July 2025, after a three-hour appearance and discussion on faith and politics on conservative radio host Joe Rogan's podcast, the charmed host, who endorsed Trump in 2024, told Talarico he should run for president because the country needs a good person. Rogan's YouTube subscribers alone count 20 million.
During Texas' highly publicized 2025 mid-decade redistricting battle, Talarico was one of 51 House Democrats who fled the state for 15 days to block the Republican-controlled legislature's new gerrymandered congressional map. Among the walkout's most visible faces and voices, Talarico was introduced to millions of TV viewers.
In February of 2026, Stephen Colbert made Talarico a household name after CBS pulled his Late Show interview with the Senate candidate under FCC pressure over the equal-time rule. A public censorship dispute between Colbert and CBS ensued -- just as early voting was beginning in the Texas primary. Colbert posted the interview to YouTube, drawing 7.3 million views and a $2.5 million fundraising boom for Talarico -- along with 4000 new volunteers.
Fundraising: Talarico's campaign, which brought in $3 million in the 24 hours following Paxton's runoff victory, reported a total of $68.6 million or $72 million including joint fundraising committees, as of the June 30 second-quarter FEC reports. Cash on hand was $21.5 million.
Paxton's campaign reported $9.2 million raised for a total of $16.8 million with joint fundraising committees, and $1.8 million on hand as of the end of the second quarter. Third quarter reports are not due until October 15.
Outside groups are rapidly closing the gap, with national GOP leadership and pro-Paxton super PACs committing more than $140 million to the general election, including $100 million from the Senate Leadership Fund. National Democratic groups have committed nothing as yet, given Talarico's historic fundraising war chest.
According to AdImpact, Talarico outspent Republicans on TV ad buys roughly seven to one from June through August, about $31.5 million to $4.7 million. In September, the tables turned: Republicans spent about $103 million to Talarico's $22 million. As of September 15, Republican groups had reserved $47.2 million in ads through Election Day, versus $6.4 million for Democrats. Third-quarter reports are due Oct. 15.
| Polling: A September 17-20 Marist University poll of registered voters showed Talarico leading Paxton 50%-44% (MOE +/- 4.4%). Undecided voters accounted for 4%, and 2% preferred someone else. RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polling, shows ten polls between August 24-September 20, averaging Talarico up by 2.8%. |
Related
DemDaily: Senate Top Tier: Can Democrats Reclaim Ohio? 9/22/26
DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Maine, Michigan 9/18/26
DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Alaska, Iowa 9/17/26
DemDaily: Update on the Senate Landscape 9/14/26
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