DemDaily: US House: Update On The Landscape!

June 10, 2024

At 148 days out from the 2024 elections, the battleground lines are clear in the high-stakes fight for control of the US House of Representatives.

The partisan breakdown of the 118th Congress of the US House of Representatives stands at 214 Democrats to 221 Republicans. That includes one Democratic vacancy (NJ-10) and three Republican vacancies (CO4, OH-6, WI-8), which will be decided by special elections in advance of November. There are an additional six non-voting members of Congress from DC and the Territories.

The Political Landscape
While Republicans control the US House, Democrats need to flip just four seats in November to take back the lower chamber.

Based on DemList's analysis, Democrats are defending roughly 25 vulnerable seats with 11 in the "toss-up" category. Comparatively, the GOP is defending 19 vulnerable seats, 10 of which are considered toss-up.

Among the races to watch: Four GOP California members make the list, including freshman John Duarte (CA-13), six-term Congressman David Valadao (CA-22), and Mike Garcia (CA-27), first elected in a 2020 special election following the resignation of Congresswoman Katie Hill (D).

In California's 47th CD, which three-term incumbent Katie Porter vacated to run, unsuccessfully, in the Democratic primary for US Senate, the seat is open.

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In battleground Michigan, three-term Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic nominee for US Senate to succeed retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow (D), leaves open the Republican-leaning 7th CD.

Four of the New York congressional seats that the GOP overturned in 2022 to gain control of the US House are among the top targets. Those include Anthony D'Esposito (NY-4), Mike Lawler (NY-17) and Marcus Molinaro (NY-19). The most vulnerable of those is Brandon Williams (NY-22), whose reelection campaign leans to the Democrat.

Oregon 5th CD Congresswoman Chavez-DeRemer (R), elected in 2023, is closely watched.

In Pennsylvania, also a top presidential battleground, Democratic incumbents Matt Cartwright (PA-8) and Susan Wild (PA-7) are both in the toss-up category.

Perhaps most vulnerable is Alabama's 2nd Congressional District, being vacated by retiring two-term GOP Congressman Barry Moore, which is universally rated as likely to flip to Republicans.

A June 3-6, 2024 YouGov/Yahoo News poll of registered voters showed the parties in a dead heat on the generic congressional ballot, with 45% of voters preferring Democrats to control Congress to 43% who want Republicans in charge (MOE:±2.8%).

DemList will keep you informed.

DemList
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Kimberly Scott
Publisher

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Sources: Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Sabato, Politico, Inside Elections, Washington Post, State News, US House

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