DemDaily: US House: The Political Landscape
June 9, 2025
The fight for control of the US House of Representatives is in full swing, with many of the battle lines now drawn.
| The partisan breakdown of the 119th Congress of the US House of Representatives stands at 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats. That number includes three open Democratic seats that will be filled in upcoming special elections. There are also six non-voting members of Congress from DC and the Territories. |
The Political Landscape
With Republicans holding a mere five-seat majority -- the smallest margin of control in modern history -- Democrats need only a net gain of four to reach the 218 seats need for a majority.
Democrats hold 174 "safe" seats which are not considered competitive, and are defending 41 vulnerable districts. Those include 18 rated as "Likely Democratic" and 14 in the "Lean" category -- leaving nine "toss-up" districts.
Comparatively, Republicans are credited with 191 safe districts and 29 vulnerable seats. Of those,11 are considered "Likely Republican," eight "Lean Republican" and 10 are targeted "toss-ups."
As the party outside of the White House, Democrats have an advantage in the midterm elections.
Historically, the House mid-term elections are considered a referenda on the performance of the president’s party, which has lost an average of 26 seats since World War II.
In this environment -- with an unstable President whose approval rating, at an average of 43%, has been underwater since he took office -- many are predicting a democratic sweep in 2026.
The public, however, is no less pleased with Congress, awarding their performance a 26% approval-65% disapproval rating in Gallup's May 1-18 tracking poll.
However, slightly more Americans say they would vote for a Democratic candidate than a Republican candidate if congressional elections were held today.
In a May 30-June 2, 2025 Economist/YouGov poll of US adults, 39% say they would vote for the Democrat and 36% for the Republican; 26% say that they are either not sure, would vote for another candidate, or would not vote.
Among registered voters, 44% would pick the Democrat and 42% the Republican.
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Sources: Cook Political Report, Sabato, Politico, Inside Elections, Washington Post, US House, YouGov, The Hill, state publications
