DemDaily: Update on the Senate Landscape!
September 14, 2026
50 days. With the Trump train wreck in full steam, and the wind solidly behind their backs, Democrats' chance of flipping the US Senate is realistically within sight.
Based on our analysis, 11 US Senate contests have shifted toward Democrats over the last four months, with little or any Republican gains.
With all but two primaries and a handful of potential runoffs remaining on the 2026 Election Calendar, the landscape of one of the most critical election cycles in decades is clearly defined.
| 35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats (including four open seats) and Republicans defending 22 seats (including eight open seats). With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate. |
The Top Targets
The GOP holds five of the six toss-up races, including Alaska (Sullivan), Maine (Collins), Ohio (Husted), and the open seats in Iowa (Ernst) and Texas -- where four-term incumbent Republican John Cornyn lost his primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The high-stakes race in Texas, where the controversial, alt-right Paxton is facing State Representative and
Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico, has become the national cause-celeb of 2026. The contentious contest provides Democrats with the best opportunity in over three decades to win the seat -- which is now solidly in the toss-up category.
Democrats are fighting to hold on to critical battleground Michigan, where incumbent Gary Peters is retiring.
In Georgia, incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff has comfortably moved out of the toss-up category, and we have moved historically red Nebraska and Kansas, where the caliber of the Democratic challengers is closing the gap, into the "Lean" category.
The open seat in New Hampshire, however, where incumbent Jean Shaheen (D) is retiring, is in danger of moving toward a toss-up. In the moderate blue swing state, the most recent poll -- taken prior to the September 10 primaries -- shows Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas (CD-1) and former US Senator John Sununu in a tight contest.
This Week: The rundown on the top-tier Senate races!
DemList will keep you informed.
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