Posted May 11, 2026 | by KimS | in 2026 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Senate, Special Elections

DemDaily: Update on the Senate Landscape! Ohio and Michigan

May 11, 2026

Now halfway through the primary season, the landscape of the 2026 US Senate elections has come into sharp focus for one of the most critical election cycles in decades -- amid Republicans' razor-thin control of the upper chamber.

Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the occupant of the White House and the party in power, and the 2026 races are no exception. With President Donald Trump's approval ratings at a historic low, the opportunity is ripe for Democrats to reverse their 2024 misfortunes.

Elections last week in Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana -- where Trump successfully primaried a group of GOP state senators who voted against his midterm redistricting plan -- reaffirmed Trump's stranglehold on the GOP while underscoring the broader appetite for electing Democrats ahead of November.

Trump is willing to sacrifice any GOP elected official, and possibly control of both chambers of Congress, to wield his ongoing dominance of the Republican Party.

Also undeniable is the growing momentum of Democrats, who swept the November 4 off-year elections, and have won or overperformed in every major state or federal special election since Trump took office.

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats (including four open seats) and Republicans defending 22 seats (including seven open seats). With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate.

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats (including four open seats) and Republicans defending 22 seats (including seven open seats). With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate.

While Republicans are defending a larger share of the 2026 seats, just three of their incumbents -- in Maine (Susan Collins), Ohio (John Husted) and Alaska (Dan Sullivan) are considered among the most vulnerable, along with the open seat in North Carolina being vacated by retiring Senator Thom Tillis.\

Among Democrats, the open seats in Michigan (Gary Peters) and New Hampshire (Jean Shaheen), and incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia are the most vulnerable to flipping red.

THE TOP TARGETS
While the Senate landscape is shifting in favor of the Democrats, analysts still give them just a 47%-53% chance of taking back the upper chamber.

OHIO
US Senate: The May 5 Ohio primary officially kicked off the general election contest for one of 2026's most closely watched US Senate races -- between former three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and interim GOP Senator Jon Husted.

Brown, who lost his November 2024 bid for a fourth term to wealthy GOP businessman Bernie Moreno, is considered the only Democrat who could win in the former top battleground state -- which trended increasingly Republican during his 18-year tenure. While Trump carried the Buckeye State by 11 points in 2024, Brown lost his seat by just 3.5%.

Husted, who was elected to his second term as Lieutenant Governor in 2022, was tapped by GOP Governor Mike DeWine in January 2025 to serve as interim Senator after JD Vance's resignation to become Vice President. A pro-life fiscal conservative, his appointment lasts through 2026, when the Senate Special Election will be held, in conjunction with the nationwide November 3 elections. The winner will serve the remainder of Vance’s unexpired six-year term, which runs through 2028.

Brown outraised Husted more than 3:1 in the first quarter of 2026, reporting $12.5 million, including $10.1 million through his principal campaign committee and $2.44 million through affiliated committees. In total, since entering the race in August 2025, he has raised 26 million, with $16.5 million on hand.

Comparatively, Husted raised $3.7 million in 2026 Q1 across affiliated committees, for a total of $10.5 million, with $8.24 million cash on hand.

Brown also has stronger grassroots support, with nearly 49% of his itemized donors being from in-state. While he leads in direct fundraising, the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund has pledged $79 million to aid Husted. The Democratic Senate Majority PAC has reserved $40 million to support Brown's campaign.

Democrats must flip Ohio in order to retake control of the US Senate.

The latest polling confirms a statistical dead heat. In an April 7–14, 2026 Bowling Green State University/YouGov survey, Husted narrowly led Brown 50%-47% among registered voters (MOE: ± 3.88%).

The latest polling confirms a statistical dead heat. In an April 7–14, 2026 Bowling Green State University/YouGov survey, Husted narrowly led Brown 50%-47% among registered voters (MOE: ± 3.88%).

MICHIGAN
US Senate: In one of the nation's most critical battleground states, two-term Democratic Senator Gary Peters is not seeking reelection.

Despite close contests, Republicans have not won a US Senate race in Michigan since 1994. In the 2024 race to succeed four-term Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) defeated former GOP Congressman Mike Rogers 48.64%-48.30%. In the same year, Trump reclaimed the Wolverine State, defeating Kamala Harris by 1.4%.

Democratic candidates for the highly competitive August 4, 2026 primary include Congresswoman Haley Stevens (CD-11), State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Department of Health Director and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed.

According to an April 11–13, 2026 Emerson College primary survey of likely voters, El-Sayed and McMorrow were tied at 24% of the vote to Stevens' 13%, with 3% voting Other and 36% undecided (MOE: ± 4.3%).

Stevens, however, leads the fundraising race, with nearly $8.9 million and $3.4 million cash on hand as of March 31 Q1 report, with McMorrow following closely on her heels with $8.6 million raised and $3.7 million on hand. El-Sayed had raised $7.65 million, with over $2.5 million on hand.

While El-Sayed has the support of Senator Bernie Sanders and a number of progressive US House leaders, McMorrow is backed by Senators Elizabeth Warren (MA) and Chris Murphy (CT), and former Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks. Stevens is endorsed by former Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Michigan Congresspersons Hillary Shelton (CD-03) and Shri Thanedar (CD--13), and the lion's share of labor unions.

Among Republicans, Rogers, who retired from Congress in 2015 after seven terms and served as a CNN commentator and producer until his 2024 Senate bid, has the endorsement of national Republican leadership and Trump. He holds a significant lead over minor opposition in both polling and fundraising.

Rogers, who entered the race last April, raised $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, beginning Q2 with $4.2 million cash on hand. This was bolstered by the GOP-affiliated Senate Freedom Fund this April, pledging $45 million in outside spending on Rogers' campaign -- the most the Super PAC has ever committed to a race in the state.

State Senate Special Election: In a crucial election that keeps Democrats 20-18 control of the State Senate chamber through the end of 2026, Democrat Chedrick Greene defeated Republican Jason Tunney in a May 5 special election, 58.9%-39.4%, to fill the 35th State Senate District.

The 35th, which Kamala Harris won by one point over Donald Trump in 2024. includes parts of Bay, Midland and Saginaw counties, and was closely watched as a high-stakes bellwether for this fall’s mid-term elections. The nearly 20-point difference more than reaffirms voter enthusiasm among Democrats, who have won or overperformed in every special election since Donald Trump took office.