Posted December 5, 2025 | by KimS | in 2026 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Senate, Special Elections

DemDaily: Update on the Senate Landscape!

December 5, 2025

Now 11 months out from the 2026 elections, the outlook of the 2026 US Senate elections is in clearer focus, with frontrunners emerging in one of the most critical election cycles in decades -- amid Republicans' razor-thin control of the upper chamber.

Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the occupant of the White House and the party in power, and the 2026 races are no exception. Coming off a blue sweep in the November 4 off-year elections and with President Donald Trump's approval ratings at a historic low, Democrats have reason to be optimistic, despite a challenging landscape.

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate.

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate.

While Republicans are defending a larger share of the 2026 seats, just four GOP seats at present are considered truly vulnerable -- the open seat in North Carolina and the seats occupied by incumbents Susan Collins (Maine), Jon Husted (Ohio) and Joni Ernst (Iowa).

Among Democrats, Jon Ossoff in Georgia is considered the most endangered incumbent, and the open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire the most vulnerable to flipping red.

The Toss Ups
GEORGIA: Senator Jon Ossoff, 38, who unseated Republican Senator David Perdue 50.2%-49.8% in a January 2021 runoff election, is the Senate's first millennial and 2026's top GOP target. Ossoff raised over $100 million for his 2020 campaign -- making him the most well-funded Senate candidate in US history.

Georgia came into play as a battleground in 2020 when Joe Biden won the Peach State by 0.3%. It is one of two Democratic-held Senate seats, along with Michigan, up in a state that Trump won in 2024.

The already chaotic and grueling Republican primary includes Congressmen Buddy Carter (CD-1) and Mike Collins (CD-10), and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who entered the race in August with the high-profile support of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. Six other candidates have filed paperwork to run in the May 19, 2026 primary, which will go to a June 16 runoff if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote.

In the last public poll, conducted October 15-23, 2025 by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia, among likely Republican primary voters, Collins led with 30%, followed by Carter with 20%, Dooley at 12%, and 38% of participants were Undecided (±3.1%).

As of the September 30 third-quarter fundraising reports, Collins had raised $2.5 million with $2.3 million cash on hand. Carter's campaign declared a $4.5 million haul with $3.9 million cash on hand, and Dooley $1.9 million with $1.7 million cash on hand.

MICHIGAN: In one of the nation's most critical battleground states, two-term Democratic Senator Gary Peters is not seeking reelection.

Despite close contests, Republicans have not won a US Senate race in Michigan since 1994. In the 2024 race to succeed four-term Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) defeated former GOP Congressman Mike Rogers 48.64%-48.30%. In the same year, Trump reclaimed the Wolverine State, defeating Kamala Harris by 1.4%.

Democratic candidates for the highly competitive August 4, 2026 primary include Congresswoman Haley Stevens (CD-11), State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Department of Health Director and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed.

As of the September 30 third-quarter fundraising report, Stevens had raised $4.7 million ($2.6 million cash on hand). McMorrow announced a $3.9 million haul ($1.5 million cash on hand), and El-Sayed had raised $3.6 million ($1.8 million in the bank).

The most recent public poll, conducted November 18-21 by Mitchell Research & Communications (R), showed Stevens leading among likely voters with 27%, followed by McMorrow at 24%, El-Sayed at 16%, and 33% undecided (MOE: ± 6.1%).

Among Republicans, Rogers, who retired from Congress in 2015 after seven terms and served as a CNN commentator and producer until his 2024 Senate bid, entered the race in April with the endorsement of national Republican leadership, followed by Trump's endorsement in July.

NORTH CAROLINA: The open seat being vacated by two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis has heated up considerably with clear frontrunners for each party's nomination.

Former Governor Roy Cooper, who was term-limited from seeking a third stint in the governor's mansion in 2024, announced his candidacy July 28, clearing any major opposition for the March 3, 2026 primary

RNC Chairman Michael Whatley jumped into the race in July with the endorsements of Trump and daughter-in-law and former RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump. Attorney and former congressional candidate Don Brown is also a GOP contender.

As of the September 30 third-quarter fundraising reports, Whatley had raised $1.4 million with $1.1 million cash on hand, while Brown announced a comparatively modest $114,000 haul with $45,000 cash on hand.

A November 9-10 poll of likely voters conducted by The Carolina Journal/Harper showed 47% of respondents favoring Cooper and 39% preferring Whatley in a head-to-head matchup (MOE: ±4%).

OHIO Special Election: The August 18 announcement of former Senator Sherrod Brown's challenge to interim Ohio Senator Jon Husted (R) put this race back on the map.

Brown, who lost his November 2024 bid for a fourth term to wealthy GOP businessman Bernie Moreno by 3.5%, is considered the only Democrat who could win in the former top battleground state -- which trended increasingly Republican during his 18-year tenure. He has minor opposition in the May 5, 2026 primary.

Husted, who was elected to his second term as Lieutenant Governor in 2022, was tapped by GOP Governor Mike DeWine in January to serve as interim Senator after JD Vance's resignation to become Vice President. His appointment lasts through 2026, when the Senate Special Election will be held, in conjunction with the nationwide November 3 elections. The winner will serve the remainder of Vance’s unexpired six-year term, which runs through 2028.

A pro-life fiscal conservative who was endorsed by Trump in April, Husted has raised more than $5.8 million from the start of 2025 to the end of September with $5 million on hand.

An October 2-14 Bowling Green University/YouGov survey of likely voters showed Brown narrowly leading Husted 49%-48% in a head-to-head matchup (MOE: ± 4.5%).

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Kimberly Scott
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