DemDaily: The Turning Point

May 4, 2016

Indiana has no notable footmarks in the history of presidential elections, but that changed yesterday.
The State of the Republican Race
Trump's sweep of the state's 51 delegates brought him to 1,047, just 190 short of the 1,237 needed to secure the nomination. More significantly, it made victory mathematically impossible for Ted Cruz, who reluctantly suspending his campaign last night, acknowledging "We gave it everything we've got but the voters chose another path."
John Kasich followed suit today, leaving Trump the last man-standing and forcing the painful reality on a severely fractured Republican party that he will be their nominee.
It's not over until it's over
... and it is. Delegates are required to vote as pledged on the first ballot at the convention, which means there is no possibility of a brokered convention or final recourse for an alternate nominee.
While the numbers assure Trump's ascension to the GOP throne, the presidential primary process will still continue through the nine remaining Republican primaries, culminating in the final round of 5 states June 7th - when The Donald is expected to officially reach the magic 1,237.
What next?
While the Dems fight a two-front war for another month, the Republicans can turn to the internal mending and VP selection process.
While it is hard to imagine a smiling Marco Rubio next to Trump, he may still be as a consideration, along with Kasich and Chris Christie. Trump supporter and swing-state Florida Governor Rick Scott is a top contender on most lists, as is New Mexico Governor Susanna Martinez (see DemList's Veepstakes).
There may also be implications for the remaining congressional and gubernatorial primaries in the nine states where republicans have yet to vote -- where the lack of competition in the presidential could play a role in voter turnout, or lack thereof.
Of those, eight will hold their congressional, and three their gubernatorial primaries, on the same day.
Republican challengers who are placing their hopes on the new class of anti-establishment voters that Trump has brought to the polls, could lose out if enough of those same voters stay home having already won their battle.
Month Day Presidential Primary /Caucus Republican
Same Day Congressional and
/or Gubernatorial Primary
Contested Republican Primaries
10 Tuesday Nebraska Republican Primary 36 Congressional none
West Virginia Primary 34 Congressional & Gubernatorial 2nd CD: Rep. Alex Mooney v. challenged Marc Savitt
17 Tuesday Oregon Primary 28 Congressional & Gubernatorial 2nd CD: Rep. Greg Walden v. challenger Paul Romero
24 Tuesday Washington Republican Primary 44 None n/a
7 Tuesday California Primary 172 Congressional Six Incumbents have contested primaries:
1st: Doug LaMalfa
10th:Jeff Denham
22nd: Devin Nunes
25th: Stephen Knight
45th: Mimi Walters
50th: Duncan Hunter
Montana Primary 27 Congressional & Gubernatorial none
New Jersey Primary
Congressional 2nd: Frank LoBiondo
4th: Chris Smith
5th: Scott Garrett
7th: Leonard Lance
New Mexico Primary
Congressional none
South Dakota Primary 29 Congressional none

In a year like this, anything could still happen. Tomorrow -

the state of the Democratic race!
Connecting you to The Party
Connecting you to Each Other
Kimberly Scott
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