DemDaily: Tuesday’s Election Results. Breaking Down Texas
May 28, 2026
In the most-watched US Senate primary runoff of 2026, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn by 27 points to secure the Republican nomination in a resounding affirmation of Trump's influence over his party.
The victory of the alt-right, highly controversial Paxton, who consistently polled as the more vulnerable Republican to a Democratic challenger in the general election, provides Democrats with the best opportunity in over three decades to win the seat.
| Texas is the country's largest Republican state and is second only to California in presidential electoral votes. The race has significant national implications. |
TEXAS
US Senate
Cornyn and Paxton came out of the GOP March 3 primary in a dead heat -- respectively securing 42% and 41% of the vote in what was already the most expensive Senate primary in US history.
Over $100 million in advertising alone was spent by the campaigns, PACs and "dark money" outside groups, with Cornyn and allies accounting for $70 million of that total -- also a record for a Senate incumbent in a primary. Another $25 million to $28 million was spent on ads in the 12-week head-to-head runoff election, with Cornyn and allies again out-raising Paxton's campaign, by roughly four to one.
Cornyn, 74, a stalwart conservative who served in Senate Republican leadership until 2024 and had the support of the GOP establishment and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), voted with the president 99% of the time.
The Senator, however, was critical of Trump after the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol, and did not endorse his re-election bid until January 2024, well over a year after the president entered the race.
Paxton has been the subject of significant legal and ethical controversies over the last decade, including indictments on securities fraud, impeachment by the Texas House on articles of bribery and abuse of public trust (but acquitted by the State Senate), and an investigation by the Texas State Bar for his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.
A longtime Trump ally, the embattled and abrasive Paxton has remained popular among the MAGA wing of the party, which helped elect him to three terms as state AG. The president's May 19 endorsement of Paxton came only after polling showed he was comfortably ahead of Cornyn.
National Republicans expect to have to spend three times as much to defend Paxton's record in the general election, diverting as much as $100 million that would otherwise go to critical Senate races that could preserve their majority in the upper chamber.
| "Ken Paxton is morally unfit for office. He will lie to you with a straight face. He has failed the character test. He is the most corrupt Attorney General of our lifetime, and he puts the interests of himself over the laws of Texas. Those aren't my words, those are words of his fellow Republicans." - James Talarico, Democratic nominee, US Senate |
Paxton will face State Representative James Talarico (Austin), who, in a stunning upset, defeated progressive firebrand and two-term Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (Dallas) by six points in the March 3 Democratic primary.
Talarico, 37, an eighth-generation Texan, former middle school teacher, and Presbyterian seminarian, flipped a historically Republican swing district in a 2018 special election to become the youngest member of the Texas House.
A prominent progressive voice with a national social media following, Talarico, named one of Texas Monthly's "Top 10 Best Legislators," initially positioned himself as a populist underdog fighting against billionaire mega-donors.
A prodigious fundraiser, his campaign has raised over $40 million since entering the race last September and brought in a record-breaking $3 million in the 24 hours immediately following Paxton's primary runoff victory.
Lone Star State
Democrats controlled Texas politics for over 100 years, until the 1960s saw small Republican gains, and eventually the defection of conservative Democrats to the GOP in the 1980s. The Bush Family Dynasty solidified the growing dominance of the Republican Party in state politics, which became complete in the national "Republican Revolution" of the mid-1990s.
The GOP controls the Governor's mansion, all statewide offices, and both chambers of the legislature -- which draws the electoral map, subject to veto by the Governor. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Texans have since voted Republican in every presidential election, delivering Trump a 56.14%-42.46% victory over Kamala Harris in 2024.
Shifting Electorate
Despite the Republican stronghold, rapid population growth and shifting demographics over the last decade have put the Lone Star State in play, with a steady increase in Democratic performance on the local and statewide level.
Congressman Beto O'Rourke's (D) 2018 Senate campaign came within 215,000 votes of ousting Republican Senator Ted Cruz, with more than eight million ballots cast. GOP Governor Greg Abbott first won office in 2014 by more than 20 points, which shrank to 13 in 2018, and to just under 11 points in 2022.
Democrats have been further emboldened by blue victories in legislative and federal special elections since Trump came into office, including the high-profile flip of a ruby red GOP state Senate seat in Fort Worth by 14 points -- a 31-point swing from Trump’s 2024 margin.
In another notable victory, Quentin Wiltz won the May 2 Pearland, Texas mayoral election to become the city's first Black mayor and the first Democrat since the 1970s. The traditionally red suburb of Houston is in Brazoria County, which Trump carried in 2024 with 57%, compared with 58% in 2020 and 60% in 2016.
Lone Star Latino voters, however, who in 2024 voted Republican in the presidential election for the first time in decades, may offer the greatest hope for Democratic wins in 2026.
The demographic turned out in dramatic numbers in the March 3 Democratic primary, casting more votes in five different rural majority-Latino counties than those cast for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Significantly, Talarico won 55% of the vote across those five counties.
| Polling shows anger with Trump's mass immigrant deportation program, combined with frustrations over inflation and tariffs, are key factors driving Latino engagement and eroding support for the president. A March 10-20, 2026 Equis poll, showed Trump’s net job approval at -25 (35% approve, 60% disapprove) among registered Hispanic voters nationwide (MOE: +/- 2%). |
US House
Texas currently has 38 US House districts: 13 are held by Democrats and 25 by Republicans.
Texas was ground zero for Trump's national redistricting war -- initiated last summer -- to force mid-term gerrymandering of congressional districts in Republican states where the map can be manipulated to increase GOP seats. The new Republican map upended five Democratic-held minority districts, including two where redistricting pitted Democratic lawmakers against each other. Candidates in 15 seats went to primary runoffs.
18th District Primary Runoff (D)
The newly drawn 18th CD pitted two Black Democratic incumbents against each other in the heavily blue (PVI D+21) downtown Houston district held by the late Democratic Congressman Sylvester Turner. Christian Menefee, who won the January 2026 special election to succeed Turner, defeated 11-term Representative Al Green, 69.4%-30.6%.
33rd District Primary Runoff (D)
Former Congressman Colin Allred won the Democratic primary runoff in the new 33rd CD with 53.9% of the vote, ousting incumbent Congresswoman Julie Johnson, who replaced him in Congress when he ran for Senate two years ago. Allred is heavily favored to win the Dallas-based district (PVI: D+18).
35th District Primary Runoff (D/R)
Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia, who defeated sex therapist Maureen Galindo 64%-36% to win the Democratic nomination, will face Air Force veteran and businessman Carlos De La Cruz, who had President Trump's backing.
The brother of two-term Congresswoman Mónica de la Cruz (R-CD15), De La Cruz won the Republican nomination 57.6%-42.4% over moderate State Representative John Lujan, who was endorsed by Governor Greg Abbott. The open seat is being vacated by Greg Casar (D), who chose to run in the 37th CD after redistricting shifted the new 35th to a GOP-leaning (PVI R+4) seat around San Antonio.
Other Runoffs
Lieutenant Governor Primary Runoff (D): State Representative Vikki Goodwin defeated labor leader Marcos Vélez (USW) 67.8%-22.2% to win the Democratic nomination to run against incumbent GOP Lt. Governor Dan Patrick, who is running for a fourth term. An April 22-May 5, 2026 Texas Southern University/YouGov poll put Goodwin just seven points behind Patrick, at 47%-40%.
Attorney General Primary Runoff (D/R): In the contest to succeed Ken Paxton, State Senator Nathan Johnson, who prevailed over former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, 60.5%-39.5% in the Democratic primary runoff, will face State Senator Mayes Middleton in the general election. Middleton, who is an oil company president, won the Republican nomination over hard-line Congressman Chip Roy (CD-21), 55.2 %-44.8%.
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Sources: The Guardian, Texas Tribune, The Hill, Politico, NPR, New York Times, AdImpact, BBC, Houston Chronicle
