DemDaily: The State of the Electoral College and Presidential Ratings

August 31, 2020

Now just 64 days out from the 2020 presidential election, the Electoral College map has seen an increased shift in favor of Democrats.

Based on our review of state ratings by the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, Democrats have moved closer in their quest for the White House, with potential electoral gains in at least 11 states.

The Electoral College is a body of electors established by the United States Constitution, which forms every four years following the November election for the sole purpose of officially electing the president and vice president of the United States

The number of electoral votes per state is determined by the number of their delegation to the US Congress, for a total of 538 "electors," or voters, among 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Ballotpedia's Ratings Map

Each state's electors meet in their respective state capitals on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December to cast their votes, which are then sent to Congress for counting and certification the first week of January.  The elected president and vice president are inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

An absolute majority of at least 270 electoral votes is required to win the election. In forty-eight states and D.C., the winner of the statewide vote in November receives all of that state's electors.

Maine and Nebraska each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner in each congressional district.

Wisconsin is a battleground on several fronts

The Status of the States
Democrats stand at 308 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories, putting them 38 past the 270 to win the election.

Republicans, comparatively, have 187 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories. The remaining 43 electoral votes fall in the "toss up" category.

Among the toss up states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Biden is leading Trump by a margin of 1-2 points.

Trump is visiting the critical battleground state of Wisconsin tomorrow, which is embroiled in political unrest following the shooting of Jacob Blake, and where Biden is favored, on average, by 3.5%.

The presidential contest, however, is far from over as national polling shows the race tightening following the conventions. An August 29th Morning Consult poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump 50% to 44% among likely voters following the Republican National Convention vs. a lead of 52% to 42% before it began.

The 2020 DemList Election Calendar will launch September 8th with all Biden fundraising events through the election.

DemList will keep you informed.

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Kimberly Scott

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Sources: Ballotpedia, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, RealClearPolitics

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