Posted May 1, 2025 | by KimS | in 2026 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Senate

DemDaily: The Race to Replace Durbin

May 1, 2025

lllinois US Senator and Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin's long-awaited retirement announcement has set off a scramble of potential contenders for the safely blue seat.

Durbin is the fourth incumbent Democrat to announce he will not seek reelection, along with Gary Peters (MI), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), and Tina Smith (MN).

As the number two Democrat in the Senate and the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, the five-term incumbent's departure opens up two other significant positions of power that will be closely watched.

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats to Democrats' 47 (including two Independents).

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats to Democrats' 47 (including two Independents).

Once a marginally Republican-leaning swing state, Illinois has voted with the Democrats in the last nine presidential contests, awarding Kamala Harris a 54.19%-43.33% victory over Donald Trump in 2024.

Since the 2018 elections, in which J.B. Pritzker (D) handily unseated incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner (R), all six statewide elected offices have been held by Democrats. The Prairie State's junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D), was elected in 2016, and Democrats hold 14 of the 17 US House seats as well as both state legislative chambers.

The highly respected Durbin (IL), 80. served seven House terms before being elected to the Senate in 1996, succeeding two-term Senator Paul Simon (D). He has served as Senate Democratic Whip since 2005 -- making him the longest-serving whip in Senate history. He chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee from 2021 to 2025 and led the 2022 Ketanji Brown Jackson Supreme Court nomination hearings.

The Contenders
The Democratic primary is expected to be among the most competitive of 2026, with a crowded field of serious contenders competing for a senatorial seat that hasn't been vacant in nearly 30 years.

Less than 24 hours after Durbin's April 23 announcement, Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton became the first prominent Democrat to launch a bid for the seat.

Stratton, a former State Representative, was tapped by billionaire businessman J.B. Pritzker as his running mate in his successful bid for governor in 2017 -- becoming the first Black woman to hold the position of Lt. Governor in the state.

Stratton was endorsed by Pritzker April 25, who pledging his full political and financial support -- immediately positioning her as an early front-runner. In anticipation of a run, she launched the Level Up PAC in January, which has already benefited from Pritzker's fundraising prowess. Senator Duckworth followed April 28 with her own endorsement of Statton.

Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has represented the 8th Congressional District's western and northwestern Chicago suburbs since 2017, is expected to announce soon. A formidable candidate, he has amassed a war chest of $19.4 million as of the first quarter of 2025.

14th District Congresswoman Lauren Underwood, who has represented Chicago's outer western suburbs since 2019, is also expected to launch a bid.

Underwood, at 29, became the youngest black woman elected to Congress, and in 2022, she was elected a co-chair of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC) -- making her the first black woman to have an elected Democratic leadership position since Shirley Chisholm in the 1970s. Her 2025 first quarter fundraising shows she has $1.1 million banked.

Six-term Congresswoman and Illinois Democratic Party Chair Robin Kelly, who represents the Second District's south suburbs of Chicago, has indicated she will announce in the next week. Kelly reported $2 million on hand in the first quarter.

Former Illinois State Senator and three-term State Treasurer Michael Frerichs is also a potential serious contender.

Former US Ambassador to Japan and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has teased a run, but is believed to be eyeing the governor’s mansion should Pritzker decide not to run for reelection.

A March 24-27, 2026, 314 Action Fund survey of likely Democratic primary voters, commissioned by Underwood's campaign, showed the Congresswoman and Krishnamoorthi statistically tied with 33% and 30% in an initial four-way ballot. Stratton followed with 16% and Kelly with 10%. The remaining 10% are undecided (MOE: ±3.53%)

A March 24-27, 2026, 314 Action Fund survey of likely Democratic primary voters, commissioned by Underwood's campaign, showed the Congresswoman and Krishnamoorthi statistically tied with 33% and 30% in an initial four-way ballot. Stratton followed with 16% and Kelly with 10%. The remaining 10% are undecided (MOE: ±3.53%)

The GOP establishment is pushing downstate Republican Congressman Darin LaHood to run for the Republican nomination. LaHood, who said he is "taking a hard look at it," represents parts of the rural northern and central parts of the state and has served in the House since 2015.

A dozen other minor candidates from both parties are expected to file.

In the interim, candidates are lining up to run for the potentially three open Congressional seats, as well as the Ninth Congressional District held by 13-term Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, who is expected to announce her retirement May 5.

DemList will keep you informed.

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