Posted September 12, 2025 | by KimS | in Uncategorized

DemDaily: The House Casualty Count! and Special Election Update

September 12, 2025

Republicans hold a 220-215 majority over Democrats in the 119th Congress -- the smallest margin in modern history. That number includes two open Democratic seats and one Republican seat.

The already contentious contest for control of the US House will come down to a handful of races, and the growing number of retirements, resignations and special elections will play a key part in that outcome.

The Casualty Count: Over the last decade, an average of 51 members of the US House retired, resigned, or otherwise departed their congressional seats early, including deaths. For seats vacated short of the two-year term, a special mid-term election is held to ensure the constituents of the district do not go long without representation. There are, on average, 13 special elections per cycle.

The Casualty Count: Over the last decade, an average of 51 members of the US House retired, resigned, or otherwise departed their congressional seats early, including deaths. For seats vacated short of the two-year term, a special mid-term election is held to ensure the constituents of the district do not go long without representation. There are, on average, 13 special elections per cycle.

At this point, 14 House Democrats and 18 House Republicans have made this term's casualty list.

Retirements (6)
In a figure still likely to swell, just six House incumbents are retiring outright from public office and not seeking another elected position.

The Democratic ranks include Danny Davis (IL-7), Jan Schakowsky (IL-9), Jerry Nadler (NY-12), Dwight Evans (PA-3) and Lloyd Doggett (TX-37). Nebraska Republican Don Bacon (CD-3) is the first and only of his party so far to announce his retirement.

US Senate (10)
Five Democratic and five Republican House members are running for the US Senate in 2026.

Democrats include Robin Kelly (CD-2) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (CD-8) in Illinois, Haley Stevens (CD-11) in Michigan, Angie Craig (CD-2) in Minnesota, and Chris Pappas (CD-1) in New Hampshire.

Republican candidates include Congressmen Buddy Carter (CD-1) and Mike Collins (CD-10), who are vying for the nomination to challenge incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) in Georgia. Barry Moore (CD-1) in Alabama, Ashley Hinson (CD-2) in Iowa, and Andy Barr in Kentucky (CD-6) are also seeking membership in the Upper Chamber.

Governor (9)
Eight House members -- all Republicans -- are pursuing the governor's mansion in 2026 -- Andy Biggs in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, Byron Donalds (CD-19) in Florida, Randy Feenstra (CD-8) in Iowa, and John James (CD-10) in Michigan. Dusty Johnson (SD-AtLarge), Ralph Norman (SC-CD5) and John Rose (TN-CD6) are also running for Governor.

There are only two gubernatorial elections up in 2025: New Jersey and Virginia. Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (CD-11), who won the June 10 Democratic primary in New Jersey, is facing former Republican State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli in November.

In the June 17 Virginia gubernatorial primaries, both former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears ran unopposed for their respective nominations. Spanberger resigned from Congress in November 2023 to run statewide in 2025, so she is not listed on this year's exits.

Texas Congressman Chop Roy (Cd-21) is running for state Attorney General in 2026.

Special Elections (6)
Three of the six Congressional Special General Elections on the 2025 calendar have occurred.

In Tuesday's Virginia 11th Congressional District Special Election, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw easily won the seat held by his former boss, eight-term Democratic Congressman Gerry Connolly, who passed away May 21, 2025.

Walkinshaw defeated Republican Stewart Whitson by a 50-point margin, 74.78%-25.03%, in the Fairfax County-based district -- significantly "overperforming" expectations and previous Democratic election results.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district by a 34-point margin in the 2024 presidential election, and Connolly won his 2022 and 2024 re-elections by approximately 33 and 34 points, respectively.

The results in Virginia 11 are consistent with a broader pattern of Democrats overperforming in special elections throughout 2025, due in no small part to the DNC's hyper-focus on the ground game. With Tuesday's victory, Democrats have won or overperformed in 42 out of 43 key elections this year, including other red and purple states across the country.

The results in Virginia 11 are consistent with a broader pattern of Democrats overperforming in special elections throughout 2025, due in no small part to the DNC's hyper-focus on the ground game. With Tuesday's victory, Democrats have won or overperformed in 42 out of 43 key elections this year, including other red and purple states across the country.

Three special elections remain: Arizona 7 (Raul Grijalva/D) on September 23, Texas 18 (Sylvester Turner/D) on November. 4, and Tennessee's 7th Congressional District (Mark Green/R), where the primary will be held on October 7, and the general election on December 2, 2025.