DemDaily: The House Casualty Count!

November 25, 2025

While Democrats continue to revel in their sweet blue sweep of the November gubernatorial, mayoral, legislative and special elections of 2025, the full focus now turns to control of the US House and Senate.

Although congressional elections only take place in even years, there are more than a dozen House special elections that occur throughout a two-year cycle.

Each is a crucial opportunity to flip a seat and shift the balance of power in the lower chamber, particularly one as historically narrow as the GOP's current 220-215 majority. Those numbers include two open Democratic seats in Texas and New Jersey, and two open Republican seats in Tennessee and Georgia. Of the five special elections that have taken place to date in the 119th Congress, none has resulted in a change in party.

At one year out from the 2026 midterm elections, 40 incumbent House members --17 Democrats and 23 Republicans -- have made this term's casualty list.

Retirements (14)
In a figure still likely to swell, just nine Democratic and five Republican incumbents are retiring from public office outright, and not seeking reelection or another elected position.

The most recent is Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG), a high-profile, controversial Trump acolyte and MAGA loyalist who stunned the political world on Friday by announcing she would be exiting the House in January.

Greene became a target of the president's ire after she broke with him on the release of the Epstein files and support for the sexual predator's victims -- with Trump declaring her a “traitor” and promising to back a primary challenge against her as retribution.

Higher Office (26)
Twenty-six House incumbents -- eight Democrats and 18 Republicans -- are not seeking re-election in 2026 in order to run for another office.

US Senate (12): Six Democratic and six Republican House members are running for the US Senate. Of the 33 regularly scheduled general elections and two special elections in 2026, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina are among the top targets.

The Illinois Democratic primary for the election to succeed retiring Senator Dick Durbin (D), where House members Raja Krishnamoorthi (CD-8) and Robin Kelly (CD-2) are running, will be among the most competitive.

Governor (13): Thirteen incumbents -- two Democrats and 11 Republicans -- have or are leaving the House to run for governor in their respective states. That includes Mike Sherrill (NJ-11), who won the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election in a landslide.

In the only other gubernatorial election of 2025, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (VA-7) rocked the November Virginia gubernatorial race by a 15-point margin, but she resigned from Congress in November 2023 to run statewide in 2025, so she is not listed on this year's exits.

Of the 36 gubernatorial seats on the ballot in 2026, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin are the top battlegrounds.

On Friday, California Congressman Eric Swalwell (CD-14) became the first House Democrat to announce a run for Governor. In the highly competitive Golden State Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gavin Newsom (D), over a dozen candidates have filed.

Texas Congressman Chop Roy (CD-21), a Republican, is running for State Attorney General in 2026.

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Kimberly Scott
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Sources: Ballotpedia, US House, Politico, CNN, Cook, Wash Post, Newsweek, Campaigns, WikiDemDaily is publishing on a modified schedule while our Publisher recovers from hand surgery.