Posted September 26, 2024 | by KimS | in 2024 Presidential Election, Abortion, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Independent, Senate

DemDaily: The Challengers: Nebraska!

September 25, 2024

With Democrats are defending twice as many seats as the GOP in their quest to hold onto their narrow 51-49 majority in the US Senate, some of the party's most promising challengers have been lost in the shadows of battleground states.

Those include four seats -- in Missouri, Nebraska, Florida and Texas -- all races worthy of watching as we move into the last five weeks of the 2024 election.

Of the 34 US Senate seats up for election in 2024, Republicans are defending 11 seats, while Democrats are defending 23 -- including top-targeted races in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

NEBRASKA SENATE
One of the sleeper elections of 2024, The Cornhusker State's regularly scheduled US Senate race is just coming into focus for many as polling released this week shows two-term Senator Deb Fischer (R) in a dead heat with challenger Dan Osborn, a veteran and labor leader running as an Independent.

That includes Republicans, who have largely dismissed the race in the reliable red state Donald Trump won with 58% in 2020. The last time Nebraska voted for a Democrat for president was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

US Senator Ben Nelson, who was reelected to a second term in 2006, and retired in 2012, was the last Democrat to hold or win any statewide elected office in Nebraska.

However, Osborn, who entered the race in September 2023, is running as an Independent.

The state Democratic Party did not run a candidate in the May 2024 primary in anticipation of supporting Osborn in the general. Party insiders were said to have been blindsided by his "change in course" the day after the primary in deciding not to accept the endorsement of either party -- saying he would "be a champion for all working people in Nebraska."

A Navy and National Guard veteran, Osborn, a mechanic, entered the race in September 2023, campaigning on his working-class background,

As President of the Bakery Confectionary Tobacco and Grain Millers Union (BCTGM), Local 50G, Osborn drew national attention for leading the successful 2021 Kellogg’s strike in Omaha -- securing benefits and a new contract for some 1,400 workers.

A September 20-23 poll of likely voters by Independent, non-partisan group SurveyUSA for the Osborne campaign, showed Osborne in a statistical tie with Senator Deb Fischer, 45%-44% (MOE:+/- 4.8%).

Although the Osborn campaign sponsored the new poll, it tracks with an August 23-27 poll conducted by SurveyUSA for nonpartisan election analyst organization Split Ticket. That poll of registered voters showed Fischer at 39% to Osborn's 38%, with 23% undecided (MOE: +/-3.6%).

With multiple polls showing a tight contest, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has upped the ante, sounding the alarm with a $172,000 ad buy Thursday, coordinated with Fischer’s campaign.

Last week, conservative Super PAC Heartland Resurgence started running $479,000 in ads opposing Osborn -- the first outside spending on behalf of Fischer.

Fischer, a cattle rancher and former state legislator (2005-2013), was elected in 2012 with 58% and reelected in 2018 with 76%. She touts her seats on the US Senate Committee on Armed Services, and the Committee on Agriculture -- as critical to the state's economy.

As of the June 30 quarterly finance report, Fisher had raised a total of $6.26 million, with $3 million cash on hand. Osborn reported raising $1.65 million, with $650,000 on hand.

The primary outside group backing Osborn, Retire Career Politicians, has spent $1.5 million.

Osborn's candidacy appears to have found an audience in Nebraska voters, who savor their individuality. As of September 2024, 49% of Nebraskans are registered as Republicans, 27% Democrat, 22% as non-partisan and less than 1% as third-party.

Also on the Ballot: US Senate Special Election, US House, State Executive Offices, State Senate, Supreme Court, State and local ballot measures, Municipal and School Boards.

US Senate Special Election: In Nebraska's US Senate Special Election, former Governor and interim US Senator Pete Ricketts (R) is facing Democratic author and activist Preston Love in November to see who will complete the remaining two years of former Senator Ben Sasse's (R) term -- who resigned in January 2023 to become the president of the University of Florida.

Initiatives: Five initiatives and one veto referendum were certified for the ballot that are expected to drive voter turnout. Two relate to the legalization and regulation of marijuana for medical use, and two related to reproductive rights. Two weeks ago the Nebraska Supreme Court rejected last-minute legal challenges, ruling both placed on the November ballot.

Nebraska currently has a 12-week ban and one of the measures would amend the state constitution to recognize a right to abortion up to viability. The other measure would amend the constitution to ban abortion starting in the second trimester (14 weeks). If both measures pass, the measure that receives more votes will be enacted.

Presidential: Nebraska is one of two states that allocates its electoral votes by the winner of each congressional district, instead of winner-take-all. Two of Nebraska’s congressional districts are safely Republican, but the 2nd district, which includes Omaha and its suburbs, is a Democratic-leaning seat.

In a blow to the Trump campaign this week, the Republican legislature failed to overturn the 30-year electoral law that in an attempt to move the state to a winner-take-all system.

The September 20-23 SurveyUSA poll of likely voters found former President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 56% to 40% on the 2024 presidential ballot, with 5% choosing Other or Undecided (MOE:+/- 4.8%).

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