DemDaily: The Challengers: Florida!

September 27, 2024

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), on Thursday, announced it will be making a “multi-million dollar TV investment” to defeat Senators Rick Scott (FL) and Ted Cruz (TX).

The seats, along with Nebraska, which were not considered in play at the outset of the cycle, are now among the most competitive in the country going into the final five weeks of the election.

National Democrats, who have invested little in the challengers to date, are now looking for a victory in at least one of the three to compensate for potential losses in their quest to hold onto their narrow 51-49 majority in the US Senate.

Of the 34 US Senate seats up for election in 2024, Republicans are defending 11 seats, while Democrats are defending 23 -- including top-targeted incumbents in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

FLORIDA SENATE
Once the country's largest battleground state, The Sunshine State has trended more Republican over the last two decades -- now considered a moderately red state at the federal level.

Florida delivered its 29 electoral votes to the winning presidential candidate, regardless of party, for six elections -- until 2020. Previously thought to be a necessity on the road to victory, Biden broke the record by winning the White House but losing Florida to Donald Trump by 3.36%.

In 2022, Floridians reelected Senator Marco Rubio (R) to a third term by 16 points, and conservative Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection with 59.4%.

Senator Rick Scott, however -- a former governor who unseated incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by 0.1% in 2018 -- is considered the most vulnerable GOP Senator up in 2024.

An attorney by trade, Scott amassed a fortune as CEO and Chair of Columbia/Hospital Corporation of America before resigning in 1997 amid the largest healthcare fraud investigation in US history. He founded a venture capitalist firm and partnered with George W. Bush as co-owner of the Texas Rangers. Among the wealthiest members of Congress, the 71-year-old's current net worth is estimated at $260 million.

Scott's first foray into politics was his 2010 run for Governor, in which he invested $75 million of his own money to beat former banking executive and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink by 1.2%.

In his 2014 re-election campaign, he faced Charlie Christ, whom he had succeeded as Governor of Florida. Christ had served as a Republican Governor but switched to the Democratic Party to run against Scott -- losing by 1%.

Elected to the Senate in 2018, Scott chaired a pro-Trump super PAC in 2020 and chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) from 2021 to 2023.

In addition to his razor-thin victories in all three of his statewide elections, this is the first time Scott will run in a presidential year when turnout is considerably higher.

If elected, he plans to run for GOP leader to succeed Senator Mitch McConnell (KY), who is stepping down as Senate Minority Leader. Scott unsuccessfully challenged McConnell for the post after the 2022 elections.

A September 20-23 Bullfinch Group/Independent Center survey of registered voters showed Florida Senator Rick Scott (R) in a statistical tie with Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell at 46%-44%, with 10% undecided (MOE: ± 4%).

Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who was heavily recruited by national party leaders, entered the race in September 2023. A native of Ecuador, she would be the second Latina elected to the Senate if she wins in November.

Mucarsel-Powell, 53, immigrated to Miami, Florida with her mother and three sisters at the age of 14. She worked her way through college, earning a BA in political science from Pitzer College in 1992 and a Masters in international political economy from Claremont University in 1996.

She worked for several non-profits and as a development and academic administrator at Florida International University’s Colleges of Health and Medicine before becoming an associate dean at the FIU Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine.

In 2018, Mucarsel-Powell became the first Ecuadorian American to be elected to the US Congress, unseating two-term Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo, 50.9% to 49.1% in Florida's 26th congressional district -- then based in Monroe County and the southwestern suburbs of Miami.

She was defeated for re-election in 2020, falling to Republican Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Giménez by 3.4% of the vote.

The Issues: Both candidates came out of last month's primary swinging, with Scott slamming Mucarsel-Powell as an “open-border socialist” on immigration, and Mucarsel-Powell painting Scott as an "extremist" who would eliminate Medicare and Social Security.

While the two have also sparred over inflation, the cost of living and healthcare, Scott has so far refused to debate the former Congresswoman.

Mucarsel-Powell assailed Scott's past support of a federal abortion ban, highlighting his approval of Florida’s six-week ban on abortion and criticized him for voting against a bill to protect in vitro fertilization procedures.

Scott said he would have signed the six-week ban but prefers the state’s previous 15-week ban. He is opposed to Amendment 4, which would overturn the six-week ban and enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.

As of the June 30 quarterly finance report, Scott had raised $29.35 million, including $12.56 million which he self-funded, and had $4.34 million cash on hand. Mucarsel-Powell had raised $12.13 million with $4.3 on hand. Both had nominal opposition in the August 20 primary.

According to AdImpact, between Labor Day and Election Day Democrats have so far spent or reserved some $5.6 million in advertising in Florida to Republicans $4.4 million over the same period.

A September 20-23 Bullfinch Group/Independent Center survey of registered voters showed former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a statistical dead heat at 48% to 47,% respectively (MOE: ± 4%).

Also on the Ballot: US House, State Senate, State House, Supreme Court, Appellate Courts, State Ballot Measures, Municipal and School Boards.

Six statewide were certified for the ballot, including four legislatively referred constitutional amendments, and two citizen initiatives -- which require a 60% supermajority vote for passage.

• Amendment 3: would legalize recreational or personal use of marijuana for adults 21 years old and older, and allow individuals to possess up to three ounces of marijuana.

• Amendment 4: would provide a constitutional right to abortion before viability or when "necessary to protect the patient's health, as determined by the patient's healthcare provider."

Floridians Protecting Freedom Amendment 4 proponents have raised more than $56 million and spent nearly $38 million. Opponents Florida Voters Against Extremism has raised about $2.6 million since last year and spent about $644,000.

Related
DemDaily: The Challengers: Nebraska! 9/25/24
DemDaily: The Challengers: Missouri 9/24/24
Monday: Texas

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Sources: Ballotpedia, Tallahassee Democrat, Politico, Washington Post