DemDaily: The 2024 Senate Race Ratings

February 7, 2024

While Democrats prevailed against political headwinds in 2022, expanding their razor-thin majority in the Senate to 51-49, the landscape of 2024 will see them defending twice as many seats as the GOP.

Now one month into the official campaign cycle, the 2024 US Senate races are taking shape with what is likely to be nine vulnerable seats among the nearly three dozen up in the critical presidential year.

34 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 seats, including three Independents that caucus with the Democrats. Republicans will be defending 11 seats, including one special election held concurrent with the regularly scheduled November 5, 2024 elections.

While Democrats are defending the larger share of seats, 15 are considered "safe," including two potential retirements in California and Maryland.

Their remaining eight, however, comprise the top battleground contests of 2024. To maintain control of the US Senate, Democrats must hang on to vulnerable seats in Arizona, Ohio, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring.

Comparatively, Republicans are defending ten safe seats, including the open seat in Indiana, vacated by Senator Mike Braun who is running for Governor, and the Nebraska special election where interim Senator Pete Ricketts is running for a full term.

The remaining GOP seat is Florida, where former Governor Rick Scott, who unseated incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson by less than 1% in 2018, is considered vulnerable.

Democrats are hoping to see Texas move into that category as well, where a host of potential contenders are considering a challenge to Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

There is still plenty of time for the battle lines to be drawn -- in both primary and general election contests. Watch for our rundown of individual races!

As always, DemList will keep you informed.

See DemDaily: The 2024 Senate Landscape 1/17/23

As always, DemList will keep you informed.

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Kimberly Scott


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