DemDaily: State of The Senate

October 16, 2018

There are 35 of the 100 US Senate seats up for election November 6, 2018.  With every Trump drama, speculation on which party will ultimately control the Senate has shifted.

The Republican Party holds a 51 to 49 seat majority over the Democrats (including two independents) in the US Senate. Democrats will need to pick up a net gain of two seats to take the majority in 2018.

Now just 21 days away from the election, however, the outcome will be determined by the results of essentially the same key races, with some changes to their ratings.

Image: John Lund/Corbis/Getty

Although most of the Democrats are favored to win re-election, and have the mid-term advantage favoring the party outside the White House, the odds are skewed in Republicans' favor, with Democrats defending 26 seats to Republican's nine.

Democratic incumbents in "red" states, where Trump won in 2016, are most vulnerable.  Those  include Florida, Indiana, MontanaMissouri, North Dakota and West Virginia.

For the GOP, their greatest challenge is defending the open seats in Arizona and Tennessee, as well as incumbent re-election battles in Nevada and Texas.

As always, the end result will come down to which party gets the vote out!

2018 US Senate Elections Update
Ratings based on a review of The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Rothenberg and DemList's final call.

Blue/Red=Held by Democrat/Republican. If Independent, grouped with alligned Party.
Toss Up (5): Most Competitive. Lean (6): Competitive with advantage to one party. Likely (8): Somewhat competitive, favored to one party. Safe (16): Not Competitive
Incumbent Status
OPEN (Jeff Flake/Retiring Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally Toss Up
On Ballot
Diane Feinstein (Incumbent) 
v. Kevin de Leon
No Candidate
Safe D
On Ballot
Chris Murphy
Matthew Corey
Safe D
On Ballot
Tom Carper
Robert Arlett
Safe D
On Ballot
Bill Nelson
Rick Scott Toss Up
On Ballot
Mazine Hirona
Ron Curtis
Safe D
On Ballot
Joe Donnelly
Toss Up
On Ballot
Angus King (Ind)
Likely (I)
On Ballot
Ben Cardin
Tony Campbell
Safe D
On Ballot
Elizabeth Warren
Safe D
On Ballot
Debbie Stabenow
John James
Likely D
Minnesota (1)
On Ballot
Amy Klobuchar 
Jeff Newberger
Safe D
Minnesota (2)
On Ballot
Tina Smith
Karin Housley Likely D
Mississippi (1)
On Ballot David Baria
Roger Wicker
Safe R
Mississippi (2)
On Ballot Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy Likely R
On Ballot
Claire McCaskill
Josh Hawley
Toss Up
On Ballot
Jon Tester
Lean D
On Ballot
Jane Raybould
Deb Fischer
Safe R
On Ballot Jacky Rosen
Dean Heller
Toss Up
New Jersey
On Ballot
Bob Menendez
Bob Hugin
Lean D
New Mexico
On Ballot
Martin Heinrich
Mick Rich
Safe D
New York
On Ballot
Kirstin Gillibrand
Chele Chiavacci Farley
Safe D
North Dakota
On Ballot
Heidi Heitkamp
Kevin Cramer Lean R
On Ballot Sherrod Brown
Jim Renacci
Likely D
On Ballot
Bob Casey, Jr
Lou Barletta
Likely D
Rhode Island
On Ballot
Sheldon Whitehouse
Robert Flanders
Safe D
OPEN (Bob Corker/Retiring) Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn Lean R
On Ballot
Beto O'Rourke
Ted Cruz
Lean R
OPEN (Orrin Hatch/Retiring)
Jenny Wilson Mitt Romney Safe R
On Ballot
Bernie Sanders (Ind)
Lawrence Zupan
Safe (I)
On Ballot
Tim Kaine
Corey Steward Likely D
On Ballot
Maria Cantwell
Susan Hutchison
Safe D
West Virginia
On Ballot
Joe Manchin
Patrick Morrisey Lean D
On Ballot
Tammy Baldwin
Leah Vukmir Likely D
On Ballot Gary Trauner
John Barrasso
Safe R

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Kimberly Scott

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