DemDaily: Status of The Senate. Race Ratings!

April 15, 2021

The US Senate currently stands at 50 Democrats to 50 Republicans. As Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the President of the Senate and has the tiebreaking vote, Democrats officially have control of the Senate.

There are 34 of the 100 US Senate seats up for election November 8, 2022. Democrats are defending 14 seats, while the Republican Party is defending 20, including four open seats.

With just a handful of competitive Senate seats up next November, Democrats are expected to invest heavily in hopes of increasing their razor-thin majority.

Top Targets

Senator Mark Kelly (D). GOP still recruiting his opponent (Mike Christy/Arizona Daily Star

ARIZONA: Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly (D) was elected in the November 3, 2020 special election to fill the remaining term of the late Senator John McCain (R). Kelly unseated interim Senator Martha McSally (R) 51.17% to 48.82%, and is now up for reelection to a full term.

The state Republican Party has yet to secure a strong frontrunner in the battleground state, which Biden won by less than half a percentage point. Software engineer Robert Paveza is the only declared candidate, but others who have expressed interest include Arizona Republican Party Chair and former US Senate candidate Kelly Ward, Congressman Andy Biggs (5th CD), Congressman Paul Gosar (4th CD) and former Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard Michael McGuire. Governor Doug Ducey has officially declined to run, but is under pressure to reconsider.

A February 25-March 26, 2021 Morning Consult poll showed Kelly with a 48% job approval rating to Ducey's 43%. More significantly, Kelly has a 24% strong approval/24% strong disapproval rating vs. Ducey, with a mere 10% strong approval/24% strong disapproval rating. Primary: August 02, 2022.

Senator Raphael Warnock has raised $5.7 million toward his 2022 reelection bid (AJC)

GEORGIA: Incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock was elected in the January 5, 2021 special election runoff to fill the remaining term of retiring Senator Johnny Isakson (R). Warnock defeated interim US Senator Kelly Loeffler 51.04% to 48.96%, and is now up for reelection to a full term.

Loeffler is among the Republicans who have expressed interest in running, along with former Congressman and 2020 US Senate candidate Doug Collins (9th CD), former Congressman Drew Ferguson (3rd CD) and former pro football player Herschel Walker. Airforce veteran and Osprey Management founder Kelvin King, and former Navy Seal and Trump administration official Latham Saddler have announced. Primary: May 24, 2022.

NORTH CAROLINA: Three-term Senator Richard Burr (R) is not seeking reelection in the newly classified swing state, which Trump won by just over 1% in 2020.

Democratic candidates include State Senator Jeff Jackson and former State Senator and 2020 US Senate candidate Erica Smith, along with Beaufort Mayor Rett Newton and former 2018 Congressional candidate (4th CD) Richard Watkins. Former NC Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is also expected to announce.

Announced Republicans include former Governor Pat McCrory and former Congressman Mark Walker (6th CD). "Senior Trump Campaign Advisor" Lara Trump, Congressman Ted Budd (13th CD), and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson have also publicly expressed interest. Primary: March 8, 2022.


OHIO: Two-term moderate Republican Senator Rob Portman (R), citing "partisan gridlock," is not seeking reelection in 2022. The traditional battleground state, which was long regarded as a bellwether for the presidential, went for Trump by eight points in 2020, breaking the state's record of voting with the winning presidential candidate since 1960.

Ryan announcement expected late April (Rachel Mummey/NYT)

Congressman Tim Ryan, Franklin County Commissioner and former Ohio State Treasurer Kevin Boyce and Minority Leader of the Ohio House of Representatives Emilia Sykes are among the Democrats who have expressed public interest.

Former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel and former Ohio Republican Party Chair Jane Timken are the top two Republican contenders, with at least eight others considering a bid. Primary: May 3, 2022.

PENNSYLVANIA: In one of the country's most politically divided states, which Biden won by 1.26%, two-term Republican Senator Pat Toomey is not seeking reelection.

The Democratic field includes Lt. Governor John Fetterman, State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, State Senator Sharif Street and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh, with others eyeing the race.

Republicans who have declared or filed include businessman and 2018 Lieutenant Governor nominee Jeff Bartos, 2016 US Senate candidate Everett Stern, Army veteran and 2020 Congressional nominee (17 CD) Sean Parnell. Political commentator Kathy Barnette, who was the GOP nominee for the 4th CD in 2016 and 2020, and Senate candidate Everett Stern have also joined the race. Primary: May 17, 2022.

Wisconsin State Treasurer Sarah Godlweski entered Senate race yesterday, April 14th

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson is running for a third term - for now. Johnson, the only Senator running for reelection in a state carried by the opposite party's 2020 presidential candidate (Biden won by .06%), is rumored to be contemplating retirement.

Johnson, considered the GOP's most vulnerable incumbent, is facing stiff competition from a growing field of Democratic hopefuls. Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry has declared, as have Wisconsin State Treasurer Sarah Godlweski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, former Wisconsin Senate Minority Leader Chris Larson, and radiologist Gillian Battino. Still others are waiting in the wings. Primary: August 9, 2022.

DemList will keep you informed.

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Kimberly Scott

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Sources: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Ballotpedia, CNN, PBS, GreenPapers, Salemnews

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