DemDaily: State of the Senate: Polling Numbers
November 2, 2018
At four days away from Election Day, control of the US Senate will come down to a handful of races, and be the ultimate test of whether President Trump is an advantage or liability to his own party.
|
The Republican Party holds a 51 to 49 seat majority over the Democrats (including two independents) in the US Senate. Democrats will need to pick up a net gain of two seats to take the majority in 2018.
|
Image: Vox
Democratic incumbents in "red" states, where Trump won in 2016, are most vulnerable. Those include Florida, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia. New Jersey, traditionally a blue state, is now on the list.
For the GOP, its greatest challenge is defending the open seats in Arizona and Tennessee, as well as incumbent re-election battles in Nevada and Texas.
As always, the winners will depend on which party gets the vote out!
2018 US Senate: Polling Updates
Four Days Out
Blue/Red=Held by Democrat/Republican. If Independent, grouped with aligned Party. MOE=Margin of Error
|
State
|
Poll |
Democrat
|
Republican |
Rating
|
|
Arizona
|
RCP Average (10/15-10/29) | Kyrsten Sinema 47.5% | Open(*Flake/Retiring) Martha McSally 46.8% |
Toss Up |
|
California
|
Berkeley IGS (10/19-10/26, MOE:4)
|
*Diane Feinstein 45%
v. Kevin de Leon 36%
|
No Candidate
|
Safe D |
|
Connecticut
|
Gravis (10/30-11/1, MOE:3.8) |
*Chris Murphy 58%
|
Matthew Corey 35%
|
Safe D |
|
Delaware
|
Univ of Delaware (9/26, MOE:3.7) |
*Tom Carper 61%
|
Robert Arlett 24%
|
Safe D
|
|
Florida
|
St. Pete Polls (10/30-10/31, MOE:2) |
*Bill Nelson 49%
|
Rick Scott 47% | Toss Up |
|
Hawaii
|
No Polling Available |
*Mazine Hirona
|
Ron Curtis
|
Safe D
|
|
Indiana
|
NBC/Marist (10/24-10/28, MOE:5.5) |
*Joe Donnelly 45%
|
Toss Up | |
|
Maine
|
Emerson (10/27-10/29, MOE:3.5) |
*Angus King (Ind) 50%
|
Safe (I) | |
|
Maryland
|
Gonzales (10/1-10/6, MOE:3.5) |
*Ben Cardin 49%
|
Tony Campbell 22%
|
Safe D |
|
Massachusetts
|
Boston Globe/Suffolk (10/24-10/28, MOE:4.4) |
*Elizabeth Warren 56%
|
Geoff Diehl 34%
|
Safe D
|
|
Michigan
|
Gravis (10/29-10/30, MOE:3.6) |
*Debbie Stabenow 54%
|
John James 41% |
Likely D
|
|
Minnesota (1)
|
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon (10/15-10/17, MOE:3.5) |
*Amy Klobuchar 56%
|
Jeff Newberger 33% |
Safe D
|
|
Minnesota (2)
|
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon (10/15-10/17, MOE:3.5) |
*Tina Smith 47%
|
Karin Housley 41% | Lean D |
|
Mississippi (1)
|
NBC/Marist (10/13-10/18, MOE:6.1) | David Baria 32% |
*Roger Wicker 60%
|
Safe R |
|
Mississippi (2)
|
NBC/Marist (10/13-10/18, MOE:6.1) | Mike Espy 29% | *Cindy Hyde-Smith 38% | Lean R |
|
Missouri
|
Missouri Scout (10/24-10/25, MOE:2.6) |
*Claire McCaskill 45%
|
Josh Hawley 49% |
Toss Up
|
|
Montana
|
Gravis (10/24-10/26, MOE:3.5) |
*Jon Tester 48%
|
Lean D | |
|
Nebraska
|
DFM Research (10/30, MOE:3.8) |
Jane Raybould
|
*Deb Fischer
|
Safe R |
|
Nevada
|
CNN (10/24-10/29, MOE:4.8) | Jacky Rosen 48% |
*Dean Heller 45%
|
Toss Up
|
|
New Jersey
|
Emerson (10/24-10/26, MOE:4) |
*Bob Menendez 47%
|
Bob Hugin 42% |
Lean D
|
|
New Mexico
|
KOB-TV (10/29, MOE:2.8) |
*Martin Heinrich 52%
|
Mick Rich 37% |
Safe D
|
|
New York
|
Quinnipiac (10/10-10/16, MOE:4.4) |
*Kirstin Gillibrand 58%
|
Chele Chiavacci Farley 33%
|
Safe D
|
|
North Dakota
|
Trafalgar (10/23-10/24, MOE:2.1) |
*Heidi Heitkamp 45%
|
Kevin Cramer 54% | Lean R |
|
Ohio
|
Gravis (10/29-10/30, MOE:3.5) | *Sherrod Brown 46% |
Jim Renacci 37%
|
Likely D
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
RCP Average (8.12-10/28) |
*Bob Casey, Jr. 52%
|
Lou Barletta 36.5%
|
Safe D |
|
Rhode Island
|
WPRI/Williams (10/20-10/24, MOE:4.8) |
*Sheldon Whitehouse 55%
|
Robert Flanders 36% |
Safe D
|
|
Tennessee
|
Emerson (10/28-10/30, MOE:4) | Phil Bredesen 44% | Open(*Corker/Retiring) Marsha Blackburn 52% |
Lean R |
|
Texas
|
Emerson (10/28-10/30, MOE:37) | Beto O'Rourke 47% |
Ted Cruz 50%
|
Toss Up |
|
Utah
|
Salt Lake Tribune (10/3-10/9, MOE:4) | Jenny Wilson 23% | Open(*Hatch/Retiring) Mitt Romney 59% |
Safe R |
|
Vermont
|
Gravis (10/30-11/1, MOE:3.3) |
*Bernie Sanders (Ind) 66%
|
Lawrence Zupan 30% |
Safe (I)
|
|
Virginia
|
Univ of Mary Washington (9/4-9/9, MOE:5.8) |
*Tim Kaine 52%
|
Corey Stewart 36% | Safe D |
|
Washington
|
Elway (10/4-10/9, MOE:5) |
*Maria Cantwell 53%
|
Susan Hutchison 39% |
Safe D
|
|
West Virginia
|
Emerson (10/28-10/31, MOE:3.2) |
*Joe Manchin 47%
|
Patrick Morrisey 42% | Lean D |
|
Wisconsin
|
Emerson (10/29-10/31, MOE:4.1) |
*Tammy Baldwin 53%
|
Leah Vukmir 43% | Likely D |
|
Wyoming
|
No Polling Available | Gary Trauner |
*John Barrasso
|
Safe R |
DemList will keep you informed.
DemList
Connecting you to The Party
Connecting you to Each Other
Kimberly Scott
Publisher
