DemDaily: The State of the Democratic Race

May 5, 2016

While the Republicans are grappling with rebuilding their fractured party and uniting around their controversial nominee, the Democratic primary contest continues.
The State of the Democratic Race
In contrast to the hybrid of winner-take-all and Congressional District allocation method employed by the republicans, democratic delegates are awarded proportionate to the results of state primaries and caucuses.
So in the case of Indiana, where Sanders won the popular vote 52.7% to 47.3%, he was awarded a proportionate 44 delegates to Clinton's 38. However, Hillary picked up 7 of Indiana's "superdelegates," bringing her total count for the state to 45 over Bernie's 44.
"Superdelegates," which are unique to the Democratic process, are distinguished party leaders and elected officials, including Members of Congress and Governors, who are free to vote for the candidate of their choosing.

While superdelegates may publicly announce or pledge their support for a candidate prior to the convention, they are not bound to vote that way at the convention.

Accordingly, superdelegates could potentially swing the results of the nomination in a close contest where one candidate did not receive the majority of votes during the primaries.

Based on state primary and pledged superdelegates, the count stands at:
The Count
Democrats Delegates Super Delegates Total Delegates
Total Needed to
 Win Nomination
Hillary Clinton 1,701 522 2,205 2,383
Bernie Sanders 1,362 39 1,401
Remaining Delegates 933 151
Source: Associated Press
So the question remains, with 13 Democratic primary states to go, is it still possible for Sanders to overcome Clinton, who - with the support of pledged superdelegates - is now just 178 delegates shy of clinching the nomination?
Can Bernie still win?
Based on the primary delegates alone, it is not mathematically possible for him to secure the nomination outright. However, given the fact that the 712 superdelegates are free to vote for whomever they which at the convention, it is still technically possible.
To do so, the two-term Senator from Vermont would have to win the war with Secretary Clinton on two fronts: 1) win a majority of the remaining 13 primaries and 2) persuade pledged HRC superdelegates to flip to his candidacy.
Is this likely? While the Senator does not have the odds in his favor, he has a dedicated following and more than enough funds to keep his campaign alive through the convention.
Month Day Primary/ Caucus Democratic Delegates
7 Saturday Guam Democratic Caucus 12
West Virginia Primary 37
17 Tuesday Kentucky Democratic Primary 60
Oregon Primary
4 Saturday Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus 12
5 Sunday Puerto Rico Democratic Caucus 67
7 Tuesday California Primary
Montana Primary 27
New Jersey Primary 142
New Mexico Primary 43
North Dakota Democratic Caucus 23
South Dakota Primary 25
14 Tuesday District of Columbia Democratic Primary 46
The daily shift in numbers will tell all. DemList will keep you informed!
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Kimberly Scott
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