DemDaily: The Special Election Scoop

April 10, 2017

The first of five "special elections" took place last week in California's 34th Congressional District to replace Congressman Xavier Becerra, who vacated his seat to serve as California Attorney General.

A "Special Election" is one called to fill the unexpected vacancy of an elected office mid-term.

Robert Ahn and Jimmy Gomez will face off June 6th for the CA 34th CD

In the solidly Democratic Congressional seat, which voted 83% for Clinton in the 2016 presidential, Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez (26.54%) and LA City Planning Commissioner Robert Ahn (18.70%) were the top two vote-getters, and will advance to the run-off election June 6th.

The remaining four 2017 special elections are traditionally Republican seats that have been vacated by Members of Congress to serve in the Trump Administration.

Despite the odds, Democrats are hoping the negatives of the Trump presidency - at only 40% approval (Gallup 4/7-4/9) - and the historic edge of mid-term gains favoring the Party outside the White House, will play in their favor.

Republicans are expecting a solid win in tomorrow's April 11th special in Kansas 4, which pits State Treasurer Ron Estes (R) against civil rights attorney and Army veteran James Thompson (D). Now-CIA Director Mike Pompeo (R) won the the 4th CD in 2016 with 60.7% of the vote. Any improvement on that number could be a good sign for Democrats.

Of the remaining three specials, Georgia's 6th District contest to fill HHS Secretary Tom Price's seat, is considered the most likely to flip to Democrats.

Democratic Candidate Jon Ossoff

The sixth CD, which was held by Price since 2004, and not represented by a Democrat since 1979, would be a huge pickup for Democrats in the increasingly purple state. Other major contenders in the April 18th jungle primary include former Republican elected officials - Secretary of State Karen Handel, and State Senators Dan Moody and Judson Hill.

In South Carolina, three Democrats, including two military veterans, are running in the May 2nd primary for the opportunity to face the winner of an equally crowded Republican primary field which includes State House Speaker Pro Tem Tommy Pope. The District, which delivered Trump a 57% victory in the presidential, is expected to stay Republican.

In Montana's May 25 election, musician Rob Quist (D) will face former Gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte (R), both of whom were nominated at their parties' respective conventions March 3rd and 5th.