DemDaily: Shaking Up the Texas Senate Election!

December 16, 2025

As we turn to the 2026 midterm elections, the battle for control of the US Senate is well underway, with Democrats defending 13 of the 35 seats up in 2026, and the GOP defending 22.

While Republicans are guarding a larger share of seats, the balance of power in the US Senate will depend on just three to five vulnerable contests among both parties.

One of the outliers is TEXAS -- where the surprise entrance of Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (CD-30) into the race came just hours before the 6:00pm filing deadline last Monday, December 8.

Crockett's bid for the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent Republican John Cornyn, who is seeking a fifth term, shakes up the dynamics of the already hotly contested seat where the Senator will first have to survive a tough primary battle.

The new scenario offers Democrats, who are also coming off a blue sweep in the 2025 elections, a glimmer of hope of winning a federal race in the country's largest red state.

Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to overtake Republicans' razor-thin 53-47 majority in the upper Chamber. See: DemDaily: Update on the Senate Landscape! 12/5/25

Democratic Primary
A progressive firebrand, former public defender, and outspoken advocate for civil and voting rights, whose district is anchored by the City of Dallas, Crockett is a rising national star in the Democratic Party with an internet following of over four million.

She served one term in the Texas House of Representatives before winning the seat held by retiring Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson with 75% of the vote in 2022, and was reelected in 2024 with 84%.

A strident critic of President Donald Trump, the Congresswoman is known for her confrontational and sharp rhetorical style, often on display in challenging Republican colleagues during high-profile hearings before the House Judiciary Committee -- on which she serves. She spoke at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago and was a Co-Chair of the 2024 Harris-Walz campaign.

Crockett's decision may also have been influenced by the Supreme Court's December 4 ruling, which gave a green light to the mid-decade redistricting map drawn by Texas Republicans in response to Trump's order to gerrymander the lines to pick up five additional GOP seats for the US House -- which set off a national partisan redistricting war.

Crockett's 30th Congressional District was significantly altered in the redistricting process to add a portion of Tarrant County and Republican strongholds, though it remains a Democratic-majority seat.

The Monday morning before Crockett's declaration, initial Democratic frontrunner former Congressman Colin Allred announced he was withdrawing from the Senate race, opting to run instead in the newly redrawn 33rd Congressional District against Democratic incumbent Julie Johnson.

Allred, who was the 2024 Senate Democratic nominee, garnering 44.6% to GOP Senator Ted Cruz's 53.1%, made his decision after speaking with Crockett, saying he wished to avoid "a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff [that] could prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified."

Crockett, however, still faces a formidable primary opponent in State Representative James Talarico (Austin), who flipped a historically Republican swing district in a 2018 special election to become the youngest member of the Texas House at age 29.

An eighth-generation Texan, former middle school teacher, Presbyterian seminarian and prominent progressive voice, he has been named one of Texas Monthly's "Top 10 Best Legislators."

Talarico, who does not accept corporate PAC money, has positioned himself as a populist underdog fighting against "billionaire mega-donors and their puppet politicians." Both he and Crockett are national social media sensations who have raised millions online for their own campaigns and others.

A December 9–11, 2025 poll conducted of likely voters by the Barbara Jordan Center at Texas Southern University found Crockett leading Talarico 51%-43%, with 6% undecided (MOE: +/-2.45%) in the March 3, 2026 Democratic primary.

The Lone Star State
Democratic politics dominated Texas for over 100 years, until 1980, when the Republican ticket of Ronald Reagan and his vice president, former Texas Congressman, UN Ambassador, and CIA Director George H.W. Bush, won the White House.

The Bush family dynasty then dominated Texas politics for over three decades, producing two Governors, a Vice President and two US presidents between 1980 and 2008.

The southern border state has voted Republican in every subsequent presidential election, delivering Trump a 56.14%-42.46% victory over Kamala Harris in 2024. The GOP controls the Governor's mansion, all statewide offices, and both houses of the legislature -- which draws the electoral map, subject to veto by the Governor.

Despite its status as a Republican stronghold, rapid population growth and shifting demographics have put the Lone Star State in play, with increased Democratic performance on the local and statewide level over the last decade: Governor Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis by over 20 points in the 2014 Texas gubernatorial, a margin that was virtually halved in his most recent 2022 campaign.

For the first time in modern Texas history for either party, the Texas Democrats have fielded candidates in every single federal, state legislative, judicial, and State Board of Education elections for the 2026 cycle.

Republican Primary
While Democrats are likely to avoid a runoff, the Republican primary -- where controversial State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt (CD-38) are both challenging US Senator John Cornyn -- is almost assuredly going to a May 26 runoff.

Paxton, who first served in the Texas State House for 10 years and the State Senate for one term, was elected Texas Attorney General in 2014 and reelected twice, despite an embattled tenure marked by legal battles and personal scandal.

A hardline conservative and Trump ally, Paxton was sued by the Texas State Bar for professional misconduct regarding his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and was impeached by the Texas House in May 2023 on 20 articles, including bribery and abuse of public trust, before being acquitted by the Texas Senate.

At the outset, Paxton publicly predicted he would need over $20 million to defeat Cornyn in the primary.

Hunt, a former US Army combat veteran and two-term Congressman from Houston who was reelected in 2024 with 63% of the vote, is campaigning as Trump's "staunchest ally," although no endorsement has been made. Hunt -- who previously served as a key surrogate for the president's 2024 campaign, particularly in outreach to Black male voters -- is backed by a number of Trump's top donors.

Hunt preceded his October announcement with a two-month promotional blitz, including $6 million in ads paid by outside super PACs presenting the 44-year-old as a younger, compromise candidate who is more appealing to the MAGA-dominated primary base.

The Texas Senate race is already on track to be the most expensive US Senate race of the 2026 cycle, with a total price tag of $750+ million when counting all candidate, super PAC and third-party group expenditures across the primary, runoff, and general elections.

National Republican leadership and the state's establishment wing are investing heavily in Cornyn's reelection -- particularly as hypothetical polling matchups show Paxton to be more vulnerable to a Democratic challenger in the general election.

Paxton entered the race in April with a double-digit lead over Cornyn, which closed to within the margin of error (MOE) in most polls by mid-September. Five other lesser-known contenders have also filed.

Democrats are hoping to face a bruised and battered GOP and candidate -- drained by a multi-million dollar primary runoff for the Republican nomination.

DemList will keep you informed.

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Kimberly Scott
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Sources: Texas Tribune, Politico, KXLA, NYT, The Hill, NBC, RCP, Austin-American Statesman

DemList is publishing on a modified schedule while our publisher recovers from hand surgeries.