DemDaily: Senate Landscape: Polling Update!
October 1, 2026
As the US Senate races continue to shift at a historically rapid pace -- toward Democrats -- control of the upper chamber after the midterms still hangs in the balance.
To keep you updated, the latest polls on our top seven toss-up contests -- in Alaska (Sullivan/R), Kansas (Marshall/R), Maine (Collins/R), and Ohio (Husted/R), and the open seats in Iowa (Ernst/R), Michigan (Peters/D) and Texas (Cornyn/R).
| 35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats (including four open seats) and Republicans defending 22 seats (including eight open seats). With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate. |
POLLING UPDATE: The Toss-Ups
ALASKA: Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D)
September 22-24: Trafalgar Group (R) Poll, 1079 Likely Voters, Final Round Ranked-Choice, MOE: ±3.5%
Sullivan 47% - Peltola 46%, Daniel J. Sullivan (R) 3%, Gerald Heikes (R) 1%, and 4% Undecided
September 14–17: co/efficient Poll (R) 799 Likely Voters, Final Round Ranked-Choice Voting, MOE: ±3.45%
Sullivan 49% – Peltola 46%, and 5% Undecided.
DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Alaska, Iowa 9/17/26
IOWA (Open Seat/Ernst/R): Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)
September 28–29: Quantus Insights Poll (R-leaning), 714 Likely Voters, MOE: ±3.8%
Hinson 47.1% – Turek 45.8%, Thomas Laehn (Libertarian) 1.7%, and 5.4% Undecided.
September 17–20: NPR/Marist Poll, 1,050 Registered Voters, MOE: ±4.4%
Turek 50% – Hinson 42%, with 8% Other/Undecided.
DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Alaska, Iowa 9/17/26
KANSAS: Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)
September 15–16: Emerson College Poll, 750 Likely Voters, MOE: ±3.6%
Hamilton 45% – Marshall 43%, David Graham (Libertarian) 4%, and 8% Undecided.
September 8–10: co/efficient Poll (R-leaning), 915 Likely Voters, MOE: ±3.22%
Marshall 49% – Hamilton 44%, with minor candidate David Graham (Libertarian) 2%, and 5% Undecided.
DemDaily: Converting Kansas 9/30/26
MAINE: Incumbent Susan Collins (R) vs. Troy Jackson (D)
September 17–21: University of New Hampshire Survey Center Poll, 1,301 Likely Voters, MOE: ±2.7%
Jackson 51% – Collins 47%, with 1% to another candidate, and 1% Undecided.
September 15–22: New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena Poll, 619 Registered Voters, MOE: ±4.9%
Collins 49% – Jackson 46%, with 5% Undecided.
DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Maine, Michigan 9/18/26
MICHIGAN (Open Seat/Peters/D): Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
September 22–24: Wolverine State Poll/BIG Data Poll, 678 Likely Voters, MOE: ±4.0%
El-Sayed 45.9% – Rogers 40.5%, with 13.6% Undecided/Other.
September 12–14: Emerson College Poll, 1,000 Likely Voters, MOE: ±3.0%
El-Sayed 48% – Rogers 46%, with 4% Undecided.
DemDaily: US Senate Top Tier: Update on Maine, Michigan 9/18/26
OHIO (Special Election): Incumbent Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
September 26–27: Big Data Poll/Public Polling Project, 680 Likely Voters, MOE: ±4.0%
Brown 45.5% – Husted 41.6%. With leaners: Brown 46.3% – Husted 42.6%
September 24–27: Marist Poll, 1,298 Registered Voters, MOE: ±3.8%
Brown 51% – Husted 43%
DemDaily: Senate Top Tier: Can Democrats Reclaim Ohio? 9/26/26
TEXAS (Open Seat/Cornyn/R): Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)
September 22–24: Conservative Majority/Stratus Intelligence Poll (Republican), 865 Likely Voters, MOE: ±3.5%
Paxton 48% – Talarico 48%, with 4% Undecided.
September 24–26: Big Data/Public Polling Project Polling survey, 698 Likely Voters, MOE: ±4.0%
Talarico 44.6% – Paxton 41.6%. With leaners: Talarico 46.8% – Paxton 44.9%.)
September 17–20: NPR/Marist Poll, 1,139 Registered Voters, MOE: ±4.4%
Talarico 50% – Paxton 44%, Ted Brown (Libertarian ) 2%, and 4% Undecided.
DemDaily: US Senate: Taking Back Texas! 9/25/26
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