DemDaily: Presidential Race Ratings! and the Electoral College

July 14, 2020

Now 112 days away from the 2020 presidential election, the electoral college map is looking good for Democratic hopes of retaking the White House.

According to an analysis by Ballotpedia of the status of the electorate in each state, Democrats have 269 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories.

Republicans, comparatively have 204 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories, which means the GOP would need to win all four battleground states in the "Toss Up" category to go head-to-head with Democrats.

Biden is leading Trump in each of those states -- Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin -- by 3% to 6.5%.

The Electoral College is a body of electors established by the United States Constitution, which forms every four years following the November election for the sole purpose of officially electing the president and vice president of the United States

The number of electoral votes per state is determined by the number of their delegation to the US Congress, for a total of 538 "electors," or voters, among 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Each state's electors meet in their respective state capitals on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December to cast their votes, which are then sent to Congress for counting and certification the first week of January.  The elected president and vice president are inaugurated on January 20, 2020.

An absolute majority of at least 270 electoral votes is required to win the election. In forty-eight states and D.C., the winner of the statewide vote in November receives all of that state's electors. Maine and Nebraska each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner in each congressional district.

2020 Presidential Race Ratings
Solid Democratic
188 Electoral Votes
Likely/Leans Democratic
81 Electoral Votes 
Toss Up
65 Electoral Votes


Likely/Leans Republican
82 Electoral Votes
Solid Republican
122 Electoral Votes


California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of
Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maine 1st CD (1)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12)
Colorado (9)
Maine (2)
Virginia (13) Leans
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Nebraska 2nd CD (1)
New Hampshire (4)
Arizona (11)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Wisconsin (10)
Alaska (3)Lean
Georgia (16)
Iowa (6)
Maine 2nd CD (1)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)
Alabama (9)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (2)
Nebraska 1st CD (1)
Nebraska 3rd CD (1)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
14 States
(+ME 01 & DC) 
8 States (+NE 02) 4 States
5 States (+ ME-02) 19 States
(+NE 01 & NE 03)

DemList will keep you informed.

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Kimberly Scott

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Sources: Ballotpedia, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, PRI

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