Posted January 21, 2026 | by KimS | in 2026 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, House, Senate

DemDaily: Peltola Puts Alaska in Play

January 21, 2026

As we jump headlong into this election year, the United States Senate map continues to shift -- in a midterm environment increasingly favorable to Democrats.

Thirty-five of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 and the GOP defending 22.

While Republicans are guarding a larger share of seats, the balance of power will come down to the top six to eight most vulnerable contests -- currently evenly divided among both parties.

In a boost to Democrats' increasingly plausible quest for the majority, former Alaska Congresswoman Mary Peltola announced January 12 that she will challenge Senator Dan Sullivan (R) -- immediately putting the boreal seat into play.

Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to overtake Republicans' razor-thin 53-47 majority in the United States Senate. To do so, they must, at a minimum. defend seats in Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire and flip Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska.

Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to overtake Republicans' razor-thin 53-47 majority in the United States Senate. To do so, they must, at a minimum. defend seats in Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire and flip Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska.

The Last Frontier State
Alaska, which awarded Donald Trump a 14-point victory in 2024, has supported Republicans in every presidential election since its inception as the 49th state in 1957 -- with the notable exception of Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide victory over Barry Goldwater.

While still reliably "red" -- the GOP dominates state politics -- Alaska's independent-minded voters have supported Democrats statewide in the past, and recent cycles have seen Democrats consistently securing over 40% of the vote for the first time since the 1960s.

Alaska is represented in the US Senate by Republicans Sullivan and four-term incumbent Lisa Murkowski, one of the Senate's most moderate Republicans and often a crucial swing vote for Democrats.

The Last Frontier state's sole, At-Large Congressional seat is held by software company entrepreneur and former alt-right Club for Growth fellow Nick Begich, Jr., who bucked his family's legendary history in Alaska Democratic politics to run as a conservative. He ran unsuccessfully for the congressional seat in the 2022 special and regular elections before unseating Peltola in 2024 by 2.4% points.

The House district was previously held from 1973 to 2022 by moderate Republican Don Young, who first won a 1973 special election to replace two-term Democratic Congressman Nick Begich, Sr., following his disappearance and presumed death in a plane crash in October 1972.

The highly respected Young, the longest-serving Republican member of Congress, was reelected to his 25th consecutive term in 2020 with 54.4% of the vote.

Young's death in October 2022, at age 88, set the stage for a high-stakes Special Election and an exciting, but tumultuous period of vacillation in Alaska's political history -- implemented under the state's new ranked-choice voting RCV) system.

Under Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV), voters rank their preference of candidates on their ballots. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The votes are then recalculated according to the second choice of the last-place finisher's voters. The process is repeated until one candidate has a majority and is declared the winner.

Under Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV), voters rank their preference of candidates on their ballots. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The votes are then recalculated according to the second choice of the last-place finisher's voters. The process is repeated until one candidate has a majority and is declared the winner.

The Challenger
A former Orutsararmiut Native Council tribal judge, state legislator, fisheries expert and advocate, Peltola won the 2022 Congressional District Special Election to succeed Young, becoming the first Alaska Native politician elected to Congress.

Some 48 candidates ran in the August blanket primary, where the top-four finishers advanced to the general election, conducted under the ranked-choice voting system.

Peltola defeated Trump-endorsed former Governor Sarah Palin (R) in the final round, 51.5% to 48.5% -- flipping the seat held for 49 years by the Republican Party. Peltola was elected to a full term in November 2022, earning 48.8% of the vote and fending off another challenge by Palin and Belgich, who received 25.7% and 23.3%, respectively.

Peltola, however, was narrowly defeated in 2024 by Begich, 48.4% to 46.3% -- in a year Trump won the state with 54.5% of the vote. She remains a popular figure, launching her bid for the 2026 US Senate seat with a 48% public favorability rating among Alaskans, compared to just 42% who view Sullivan positively.

Sullivan, Alaska's junior Senator, is a reliable conservative who voted in line with Trump 91.5% of the time in the president's first administration -- far to the right of Alaska's fiercely independent electorate.

He is perceived as a "partisan voice" for Trump by some, while a smaller right-wing base feels he hasn't supported the president enough. With or without Trump's overt presence in the state, the president's popularity -- or lack thereof -- will play a decisive role in the outcome of this race.

An attorney and Marine Corps veteran, Sullivan previously served as commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, state Attorney General, and as US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs in the George W. Bush administration.

In 2014, Sullivan unseated incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich by just over 6,000 votes, and was reelected in 2020, dispensing with Democratic challenger, entrepreneur and orthopedic surgeon All Gross by 12.7%.

A March 2025 Alaska Survey Research (ASR) poll reported that Trump was both the "most popular and most strongly disliked" politician in Alaska, with 31.4% holding a "very positive" view and 42.7% holding a "very negative" view. ASR's January 2026 poll showed those numbers at 27.5% "very positive" and 43.1% holding a "very negative" view.

A March 2025 Alaska Survey Research (ASR) poll reported that Trump was both the "most popular and most strongly disliked" politician in Alaska, with 31.4% holding a "very positive" view and 42.7% holding a "very negative" view. ASR's January 2026 poll showed those numbers at 27.5% "very positive" and 43.1% holding a "very negative" view.

The Contest
According to polling released last week, Peltola enters the contest in a statistical dead heat with Sullivan.

A January 8–11, 2026 poll of likely voters conducted by Alaska Survey Research just prior to her announcement showed Peltola with a narrow 48%-46.4% lead over Sullivan, with 5.6% undecided (MOE:±2.2%).

Within the first 24 hours of launching her campaign to unseat Sullivan, Peltola raised $1.5 million -- fueled by small-dollar donors from across Alaska, with 96% of contributions $100 or less. The one-day haul exceeds the roughly $1.2 million Sullivan raised over the entire third quarter of 2025, when he reported taking in a total of $6 million for his reelection, with nearly $4.8 million in cash on hand.

Peltola's spectacular haul reflects the immediate national focus on the race -- as a feasible opportunity to bring Democrats one step closer to overtaking the GOP in the Senate. Peltola won statewide in 2022 by positioning herself as a moderate focused on "fish, family, and freedom" rather than national Democratic partisanship.

Alaska is the country’s most independent state by registration, with, as of January 2026, 57.47% identifying as unaffiliated, 24.25% Republican, 13.17% Democrat, 3.19% Alaskan Independence Party and 1.92% other political groups.

Alaska is the country’s most independent state by registration, with, as of January 2026, 57.47% identifying as unaffiliated, 24.25% Republican, 13.17% Democrat, 3.19% Alaskan Independence Party and 1.92% other political groups.

DemList will keep you informed.