DemDaily: New Jersey Gubernatorial: Crowd of Contenders
February 7, 2025
There are only two gubernatorial races up in 2025 -- New Jersey and Virginia -- both of which will be closely watched as an indicator of the new administration's approval ratings in the first year of a Trump White House.ndsc
| Status of the Governors: Democrats hold 23 gubernatorial seats to Republicans' 27 nationwide. Of the 50 state governors, 12 are female (8D/4R), one is Hispanic (Michelle Lujan Grisham, New Mexico), one is Black (Wes Moore, Maryland), and one is Native American (Kevin Stitt, Oklahoma). |
NEW JERSEY
Incumbent: Phil Murphy (D). Term-limited
Primary: Tuesday, June 10, 2025
In the Garden State, where two-term Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is term-limited, more than a dozen candidates are running to succeed him.
A Democratic stronghold, no Republican presidential candidate has won in New Jersey since George HW Bush in 1988. New Jerseyans awarded Kamala Harris a 51.97%-46.06% victory over Donald Triump in 2024.
Democrats have also controlled both chambers of the state legislature since 2004, hold both United States Senate seats with Democrats Cory Booker (elected 2012) and Andy Kim (elected 2024), and hold nine of the state's 12 congressional seats.
Despite the demographics, Republicans are looking to New Jersey as a possible pickup in unpredictable political environment that could work in their favor.
| The Numbers: As of February 1, 2025, registered Democratic voters statewide decisively outnumber registered Republicans, 37.42%-24.38% with 37.04% unaffiliated voters and 1.15% "other." |
2025 Gubernatorial Election
The landscape of the 2025 governors race presents an open field of candidates, with more than a third of the population still undecided.
Democrats
Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, elected to represent New Jersey's Morris County-based 11th Congressional District in 2018, is the early frontrunner in the Democratic primary.. A former US Navy helicopter pilot, attorney, and former federal prosecutor with an MSc from the London School of Economics, Sherrill was re-elected in 2024 with 56.5%.
Congressman Josh Gottheimer, who has represented New Jersey's Bergen County-based 5th Congressional District since 2016, is running, as is former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, President of the powerful New Jersey Education Association.
Former New Jersey Senate President Stephen Sweeney (2010-2022), Newark Mayor DeRas Baraka (2014–present), and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (2013–present) are also major contenders.
The six candidates squared off February 2 in the first debate. With little light between them on the issues, the event served as an introduction to the contenders, with few fiery moments. All cautiously praised Murphy, who leaves office with 44% approval rating, and maintained a sense of decorum throughout the evening.
| A January 22–23, 2025 Public Policy Polling (D) survey of Likely Voters showed Sherrill leading with 16%, followed by Spiller with 11%, and Baraka, Fulop, and Sweeney all at 9% and Gotthmeimer at 5%. A significant 43% were undecided (MOE: ±4.0%). |
Republicans
Former State Assemblyman (2011–2016) and 2021 Republican nominee for governor Jack Ciattarelli, which he narrowly lost to Murphy, 51.2%-48.0%.
Other major contenders include State Senator (2022–present) and former Minority Leader of the New Jersey General Assembly (2012–2022) Jon Bramnick, conservative radio talk show host Bill Spadea, and former State Senator Edward Durr (2022–2024).
Former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac (2016–2024), former Burlington City Mayor Jim Fazzone (2008–2015), real estate broker Robert Canfield, and production mechanic and perennial candidate Roger Bacon are also running for the Republican nomination.
Four of the candidates faced off in a contentious debate February 4 at Rider University in Lawrenceville, where verbal attacks flowed freely as they competed for the most "MAGA" of the field. Bramnick was the lone dissenter, arguing that to win New Jersey, a candidate has to appeal not just to Republican primary voters but to Democrats and independents as well."
| A January 18–21, 2025 Emerson College survey of Likely Voters showed Ciattarelli leading with 26%, followed by Spadea with 13%, Bramnick at 4%, and Durr at 2%. "Other" was 10% and Undecideds accounted for 47% (MOE: ± 5.3%) |
DemList will keep you informed.
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Related
DemDaily: Virginia: The Race to Watch 2/6/25
DemDaily: The 2025 Election Calendar 2/5/25
DemDaily: Where Things Stand: Governors 11/13/24
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Sources: AP, VNJ1015, Philadelphia Inquirer, NPR, Rutgers
