DemDaily: New Jersey Gubernatorial Narrowing
September 29, 2025
In the high-stakes New Jersey gubernatorial election, the gap has narrowed between Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill and former Republican State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, with the latest polling showing them in a dead heat.
A September 22-23 Emerson College poll of somewhat/very likely voters showed a major shift in the numbers, with Sherrill and Ciattarelli now at 43%-43%, with 11% undecided going into the final five weeks of the election (MOE: +/- 3.1).
New Jersey and Virginia are holding the only two gubernatorial races in 2025. Both are closely watched as bellwethers for the mood of the electorate as the political parties navigate the first year of Donald Trump's second term in the White House.
The winner of the New Jersey general election will succeed Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is term-limited.
| According to the Emerson poll, New Jersey voters’ concerns: 51% think the economy is the top issue facing the state, followed by threats to democracy (13%), housing affordability (11%), health care (6%), immigration policy (5%) and crime (5%). |
The Garden State, historically a Democratic stronghold, hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George HW Bush in 1988, and the GOP has not won a statewide election since Chris Christie’s 2013 gubernatorial victory.
Democrats have controlled both state legislative chambers since 2004, hold nine of the state's 12 congressional seats, and both US Senate seats with Cory Booker (since 2013) and Andy Kim (elected 2024).
Republicans, however, have seen more competitive numbers in recent statewide elections. In 2024, Kamala Harris's 5.9-point win -- the narrowest presidential margin in over three decades -- was ten points down from Joe Biden's 2020 statewide margin. In 2021, Murphy was reelected by just 3.2 points -- down from his 14.1-point victory in 2017.
Sherrill, a former US Navy helicopter pilot, attorney, and federal prosecutor, was elected to Congress in 2018 after flipping the long-held GOP 11th Congressional district in northern New Jersey.
She won the June 10 Democratic nomination with 34% of the vote, ten points over the closest of her five primary competitors.
Ciattarelli, who was endorsed by Trump May 12, easily won the GOP nomination with 67.9% of the vote against four other contenders. A wealthy businessman and founder of several publishing and marketing companies, Ciattarelli ran unsuccessfully in the 2017 GOP gubernatorial primary, but was his party's nominee in the 2021 governor's race -- which he narrowly lost 48.0%- 51.2% to Murphy.
The most expensive gubernatorial primary race in New Jersey history, $145 million total was spent by 11 candidates and independent committees. The outside SuperPACs can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, but technically are not allowed to coordinate with the candidates.
The first general election finance report, covering June 28 - October 3, 2025. won’t be available until October 6, but the cost of the general election is expected to exceed $60 million.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has pledged $3 million -- the largest investment it has ever made in the state during an off-year election cycle, and the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) and associated superPAC, Greater Garden State PAC, have promised $20 million.
Similarly, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) is investing heavily in the election through its associated superPAC, Restore New Jersey, as are other GOP-aligned committees. More than 50 groups have registered with New Jersey's Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) to operate as independent expenditure committees this year.
| New Jersey sits between two of the most expensive broadcast media markets in the nation -- New York (#1) and Philadelphia (#4) -- with limited state-centered television options. In the primary election, 78% of all spending, or more than $113 million, was spent on television, direct mail, digital and radio ads, billboards, and other methods of trying to capture voters' attention. |
Both parties blame the other for energy prices, property taxes and the state's current economic environment, while tying the other candidate to their less popular party leaders. In fact, both Trump and Murphy are underwater, with the Emerson poll showing that Trump enjoys a higher approval rating, 41%, compared to Murphy at 35%. At the same time, Trump has a higher disapproval rating of 51% compared to Murphy’s 44%.
The gloves are off on the personal attacks as well. In a preview of what to expect over the next five weeks, CBS reported last week that the National Archives, in violation of the Privacy Act of 1974, had released a mostly unredacted version of Sherrill's military records, which contained personal information such as her Social Security number. While blamed on a technician error, the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request came from Ciattarelli ally Nicholas De Gregorio, at the behest of GOP consultant Chris Russell.
Ciattarelli has been trying to tie Sherrill, who graduated from the Naval Academy in 1994, to a cheating scandal that year involving more than 130 Midshipmen. No evidence had been produced to implicate Sherrill, but because she did not report her classmates at the time, she was not permitted to walk at graduation. Her military records revealed an exemplary career, including a 1991 medal for saving the life of a classmate.
Sherrill has called for an investigation, saying the release was no mistake but an extension of President Donald Trump's effort to weaponize the federal government against his political opponents. Ciattarelli has called on the Congresswoman to admit she was punished for "her involvement in the largest cheating and honor code scandal in the history of the United States Navy."
DemList will keep you informed.
Related
The Second New Jersey Gubernatorial Debate will take place Wednesday, October 8 @7:00pm on ABC
New Jersey: Voter Resources!
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Sources: CNN, New York Times, New Jersey.com, New Jersey Spotlight, NBC, New Jersey Monitor, New Jersey Globe, Politico, New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission, Emerson College
