DemDaily: New Jersey Gubernatorial: Narrowing The Gap
April 24, 2025
New Jersey is holding one of only two gubernatorial races in 2025, along with Virginia, and with less than two months before the June 10 primary, the gap is narrowing among the crowded field of contenders.
| Status of the Governors: Democrats hold 23 gubernatorial seats to Republicans' 27 nationwide. Of the 50 state governors, 12 are female (8D/4R), one is Hispanic (Michelle Lujan Grisham, D-New Mexico), one is Black (Wes Moore, D-Maryland), and one is Native American (Kevin Stitt, R-Oklahoma). |
In the Garden State, 11 candidates are running to succeed Governor Phil Murphy (D), who is term-limited. A Democratic stronghold, New Jersey hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George HW Bush in 1988.
Democrats have controlled both state legislative chambers since 2004, hold nine of the state's 12 congressional seats, and both US Senate seats with Cory Booker (since 2013) and Andy Kim (elected 2024). Kim succeeded longtime Senator Bob Menendez (D), who was convicted on corruption charges in July 2024 and sentenced to 11 years in prison.
Although Republicans have not won a statewide election since Chris Christie’s 2013 landslide gubernatorial victory, the GOP is looking to New Jersey as a possible pickup -- buoyed by more competitive numbers in recent statewide elections. Murphy was re-elected in 2021 by 3.2 points, down from his 14.1-point victory in 2017, and Kamala Harris's 2024 5.9-point win was ten points down from Joe Biden's 2020 statewide margin.
| New Ballot Design: While most US jurisdictions group candidates by office on the ballot ("office block"), New Jersey historically used a "county line" design -- where candidates endorsed by the county political parties appear together. The 2025 primaries will be the first to use block design under a new law signed by Murphy in March, following a 2024 US District Court ruling that found the county-line system "likely unconstitutional." |
Democrats
In the infamously political powerhouse state where all politics are local, Democratic primary candidates have split endorsements from elected officials, county and party committees -- as well as labor, which has a significant presence in the state.
Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, a former US Navy helicopter pilot, attorney, and federal prosecutor, was elected to New Jersey's Morris County-based 11th Congressional District in 2018.
The acknowledged frontrunner, Sherill has the endorsements of 11 Democratic County Committees, 15 Democratic Municipal Committees, six state legislators, three dozen county officials, Congressman Frank Pallone (NJ-6), and former members Tom Malinowski (NJ-7) and Albio Sires (NJ-8). Former Governors Jon Corzine and Richard Codey are supporting her, as well as the Laborers' International Union, the National Association of Government Employees, EMILY's List and the League of Conservation Voters.
Congressman Josh Gottheimer, who has represented the Bergen County-based 5th Congressional District since 2016, is supported by 8 state legislators, a dozen county officials, three county political committees, 72 municipal Democratic committees, and over 30 mayors. The Operating Engineers Local 825 and the New Jersey State Council of Machinists have also endorsed him.
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, elected in 2013, has been endorsed by 11 state legislators, three county officials, over 30 mayors and one municipal committee. His labor support includes the Amalgamated Transit Union, AFSCME District 1199J, four Teamsters locals and SMART Local 60.
Newark Mayor DeRas Baraka, elected in 2014, is supported by New Jersey Congresswomen Bonnie Watson Coleman (CD-12) and LaMonica McIver (CD-10), former Secretaries of State DeForest Soaries and Regena Thomas, and over a dozen local officials, including nine mayors. He is endorsed by the Working Families Party, and labor locals Rutgers AAUP–AFT, SEIU 32BJ, and the Workers United LDFSJB.
| A MDW Communications poll of Likely Voters, conducted for Baraka's campaign and released April 21, shows Sherrill leading with 18%, Baraka and Steve Fulop tied at 14%, Sean Spiller at 11%, Gottheimer at 9% and Steve Sweeney at 8%. 26% of voters remain undecided. An April 6-8, 2025 Global Strategy Group survey of Likely Voters sponsored by Sherrill's campaign shows her leading with 25% of respondents, followed by Gotthmeimer with 15%, Fulop and Baraka with 13%, Sean Spiller with 12%, and Stephan Sweeney at 6%, with 16% undecided. |
Former New Jersey Senate President Stephen Sweeney (2010-2022), from Cumberland County, is endorsed by Congressmen Herb Conaway (NJ-3) and Donald Norcross (NJ-01), 25 county officials, 52 mayors, five county chairs, seven municipal committees and seven county committees.
Sweeney, who serves as General Vice President of the International Association of Iron Workers, has amassed significant labor support, including the State Building Trades Council, Southern New Jersey Central Labor Council, Eastern Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters, Teamsters Joint Council 53, five IBEW locals, Sheet Metal Workers State Council, Boilermakers Local 28, International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), New Jersey Roofers Unions, and UNITE HERE Locals 54 & 100.
Among the lesser-known candidates is former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, who is President of the powerful New Jersey Education Association. Although he has garnered little institutional support and has yet to raise the $580,000 threshold for primary matching funds, the teacher's union SuperPAC, Working New Jersey, has already invested millions in political ads to boost his name recognition and has reported it is prepared to spend as much as $35 million on behalf of Spiller.
The last public fundraising numbers were from the close of 2024, which had Fulop in the early lead with $3.17 million, Sweeney with $2.4 million, Gottheimer at $1.66 million and Sherrill at $1.4 million.
While the next campaign reporting will not come out until May, candidates and satellite groups have raised millions since January, with unconfirmed numbers showing that Spiller, Gottheimer, and Fulop have already benefited from $16 million, $14.2 million, and $10.7 million, respectively, in TV and digital spending from their campaigns and allied super PACs. Sherrill, who comes off of spending $4.8 million to boost her profile in her 2024 US House reelection campaign, has spent just $120,000 on paid communications thus far.
| This 2025 election is expected to be the most expensive in state history. New Jersey's election commission (ELEC) reported the number of contributions to gubernatorial candidates participating in the state’s public financing program increased by 374% compared to the 2021 governor’s race. As of April 3, ELEC had dispersed $29.6 million in matching funds to qualifying candidates -- more than double any primary in the past. |
Republicans
Former Hunterdon County State Assemblyman (2011-2018) and 2021 Republican nominee for governor, Jack Ciattarelli, leads the GOP field. A wealthy businessman, Ciattarelli is the founder of several publishing and marketing companies. In his 2021 bid, which he narrowly lost 48.0%- 51.2%, he raised $7.12 million to Murphy's $8 million.
Ciattarelli has secured the lion's share of endorsements, including 18 municipal Republican committees,16 county political committees, over 20 county officials, 25 mayors, and eight state legislatures, as well as former Trump Senior White House Counselor Kellyanne Conway.
Morris County State Senator and former Minority Leader of the New Jersey General Assembly (2012–2022) Jon Bramnick has the support of six municipal Republican committees, six mayors, and a handful of county officials and state legislators. Former New Jersey Attorney General Christopher Porrino has endorsed him, as has
former Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former Speaker of the US House John Boehner (Ohio) and former Trump White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci.
Conservative radio talk show host Bill Spadea has the support of 10 municipal committees, three county political parties, eight mayors, and several county officials and legislators. The National Right to Life Committee has endorsed him, as has former co-chair of the Republican National Committee Lara Trump.
Screenshot
In their December 2024 fundraising filings, Ciattarelli reported $2.93 million raised, Bramnick brought in $1.53 million, and Spadea $1.13 million.
The support of Trump, who has not endorsed in the primary, is a delicate one as the president's approval rate, now at just 40%, continues to decline.
While the Republican candidates publicly embrace the president, they still must navigate the politics of his divisive agenda. Although recent primary polling shows 46% of respondents saw Ciattarelli as the most pro-Trump candidate, the far-right Spadea has released an ad featuring Trump grumbling about Ciattarelli for not seeking his support in his 2021 gubernatorial bid, suggesting that it cost him the race, which Ciattarelli lost to Murphy 48% to 51.22%.
| An April 8–10, 2025 National Research survey of Likely Voters conducted for Ciattarelli's campaign, showed him leading with 50%, followed by Spadea with 22%, Bramnick at 9%, "Other" at 3% and Undecideds accounted for 14% (MOE: ± 4.0%). |
DemList will keep you informed.
DemList
Connecting You to The Party
Connecting You to Each Other
Kimberly Scott
Publisher
Please Support DemList
SignUp for the Daily updates on the issues, politics and the players.
Follow DemList on Bluesky, Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn
Sources: AP, New Jersey Monitor, New Jersey Globe, New Jersey ELEC, New Jersey Spotlight, NYT, Political Pulse
The DemDaily column will publish on a modified April schedule while our Publisher recovers from hand surgery.
