Posted March 20, 2025 | by KimS | in 2026 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, DNC Chair Ken Martin, Senate

DemDaily: Minnesota on The Map. US Senate 2026

March 20, 2025

The race to replace United States Senator Tina Smith is on, with a growing field of potential candidates from both parties emerging in what could be one of the key Senate contests of the 2026 midterms.

The retirement of the Minnesota Democrat, announced February 13, leaves vulnerable an open Senate seat when national Republicans are struggling to hold onto a narrow, four-seat advantage in the US Senate.

If the GOP can recruit a competitive candidate that puts the seat in play, there will be no shortage of investment in attempting to flip it red and increase their slight majority in Congress' upper chamber.

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats to Democrats' 47 (including two Independents).

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats to Democrats' 47 (including two Independents).

Smith served as Lieutenant Governor from 2015 to 2018 before being appointed by Governor Mark Dayton (D) as interim US Senator to fill the seat vacated by Democrat Al Franken.

She won the November 2018 special election to serve the balance of Franken's term by 11 points and fended off a challenge by Congressman Jason Lewis (R) 48.74%-43.5% to win her first full term in 2020.

Popular among colleagues and constituents, Smith earned a 47% approval with just a 28% disapproval rating in a February 2025 KSTP poll. The 25% of respondents who registered "no opinion" of Smith is reflective of her low profile preference. Over her career, Smith earned the nickname the “velvet hammer” for being an effective behind-the-scenes operator.

The Landscape
Battleground Minnesota is a moderately blue state at the federal and state levels. Despite the GOP's sweep of the top swing states, Kamala Harris won The North Star State by four percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Trump has a current 47% approval - 47% disapproval rating among state voters.

The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) controls both of the state's US Senate seats, the governorship and all statewide offices and four of Minnesota's eight US House seats.

Control of the legislature is an ongoing battle, with Democrats holding a razor-thin majority of 34-32 in the State Senate, and the Minnesota State Senate and the State House evenly split at 67 Democrats and 67 Republicans.

Minnesota's Junior Senator, Amy Klobuchar, remains the most popular politician in the state, with a 57% approval and 31% disapproval rating, and Governor and former Vice Presential candidate Tim Walz has a 52% approval rating, with 44% disapproval.

The DFL, which is affiliated with the national Democratic Party, was formed by a merger between the Minnesota Democratic Party and the Minnesota Farmer–Labor Party in 1944. Under the leadership of State Chair and now Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, Republicans have not won a statewide election since 2006.

The DFL, which is affiliated with the national Democratic Party, was formed by a merger between the Minnesota Democratic Party and the Minnesota Farmer–Labor Party in 1944. Under the leadership of State Chair and now Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, Republicans have not won a statewide election since 2006.

The Contenders
Within hours of Smith's retirement announcement, DFL Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, and 2024 Republican US Senate nominee and former professional basketball player Royce White, both announced their campaigns

Flanagan, the country's highest-ranking Native woman, leads a formidable field of potential Democratic contenders, including former Minnesota Senate Minority Leader Melisa López Franzen who announced her candidacy March 10.

Three-term Congresswoman Angie Craig (CD-2) has confirmed her interest, as has three-term Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (CD-5). Other names floated include Minnesota Attorney General and former Congressman Keith Ellison, Minnesota House Minority Leader Melissa Hortman, Secretary of State Steve Simon, 12-term Congresswoman Betty McCollum (CD-4), and David Wellstone, former National Alliance on Mental Illness Board of Directors member and son of late US Senator Paul Wellstone.

White, the only name Republican candidate to announce so far, lost to Klobuchar 56.20%-40.50% in 2024, and raised $1,564,542 to the Senator's $21,485,424.

State Senator Julia Coleman said she is "absolutely considering" a run. The three-term legislator is also the daughter-in-law of former GOP US Senator Norm Coleman, who lost to Al Franken in 2008.

State Representative Kristin Robbins, State Senator Karin Housley, who ran against Smith in 2018; and political consultant and former TV sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya have also publicly expressed interest.

Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, former Navy veteran Raymond Petersen and Mike Ruoho have filed.

Out: Governor Tim Walz (D), Former US Senator Al Franken (D), former US Attorney Andy Luger (D), former Governor Tim Pawlenty (R), former Congressman Dean Phillips (D), Congressman Pete Stauber (R), Congresswoman Kelly Morrison (D), and Minnesota House of Representatives Speaker Lisa Demuth (R).