DemDaily: House Retirements, Races and Ratings
September 11, 2017
While the country continues to ride the daily rollercoaster of the Trump Administration, the Party Committees are focused on the 2018 battles for control of the House and Senate -- and helping individual candidates balance national events with their voters at home.
| Democrats hold 194 seats to Republicans 241. It will take a net gain of 24 seats for Democrats to take control of the House in 2018. |
Whether disatisfaction with Trump or Congress, the electorate has shifted, as have pundits' recent House seat ratings, giving Democrats increasing hope of taking back the US House of Representatives -- and recent Republican retirements bring them one step closer to their goal.
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's FLA-27 seat considered likely Democratic Pick-Up
In the last week three more Republicans anounced their retirements: Congressman Dave Trott (R/MI-11), where Trump wont by just 4.5% in 2016, Dave Reichert (R/WA-8), whose CD went 47.7% to 44.7% for Clinton, and Charlie Dent (R/PA-15) where voters went 51.8% to 44.2% for Trump.
That brings to eight the number of GOP retirements, including Congresspersons Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R/FLA-27), Lynn Jenkins (R/KS-2), Jim Bridenstein (R/OK-1), Jimmy Duncan Jr. (R/TN-2), and Sam Johnson (R/TX-3).
Bridenstein, Duncan and Johnson's seats are considered solid Republican, but the rest are considered in play, with Ros-Lehtinen's is favored at the outset to go to a Democrat. On the average, since 1976, 22 Members have retired each election cycle.
Another six Republicans have announced departures to run for higher office, all - at this point - rated as strong GOP holds.
House Oversight Committee Chair Darryl Issa is on the Dems' Hit List
Dems already have an historical advantage - in that the party outside the White House averaging a pick up of 28 seats in mid-term elections.
Special Elections
Although the five Congressional Special Elections (4R, 1D) so far this year did not flipped any seats, the narrow victory margins in the traditionally Republican seats are an indication of voter discontent with the White House. Dems came within 7% points of winning in three states where Trump beat Clinton last November by 18+%.
Fundraising
Dems are also buoyed by their fundraising success. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee(DCCC) raised twice as much in July as the NRCC - the third month of outraising their Republican counterpart. It brings yearly totals to $66.2 million for the DCCC to the NRCC's $63.9 million.
| Of all 435 Congressional seats up in 2018, Cook rates 175 as solid Democrat and 186 as solid Republican. 16 Democratic and 46 Republicans seats fall in the Likely/Lean category, and 3 Democratic and 9 Republican seats are rated as Toss Up or Worse. |
For a look at the most vulnerable Republican seats, to follow are the Cook Political Report's September 2017 ratings.
Key: Likely Republican (22), Lean Republican (23) and Republican Toss Up (9), Lean Democrat (1)
Democrats' Top Republican Congressional District Targets
|
State
|
District
|
Incumbent R
|
State
|
District
|
Incumbent R
|
|
|
Arizona
|
02 | Martha McSally | Minnesota |
03
|
Erik Paulsen
|
|
| California |
10
|
Jeff Denham |
|
Montana
|
00 | Greg Gianforte |
|
California
|
21
|
David Valadao
|
Nebraska
|
02
|
Don Bacon
|
|
|
California
|
25 | Steve Knight |
|
New Jersey | 03 | Tom MacArthur |
| California |
39
|
Ed Royce |
|
New Jersey |
07
|
Leonard Lance
|
| California |
45
|
Mimi Walters |
|
New Jersey
|
11
|
Rodney Frelinghuysen
|
|
California
|
48 | Dana Rohrabacher |
|
New Mexico
|
02
|
Steve Pearce (OPEN)
|
| California | 49 | Darrell Issa |
New York
|
01
|
Lee Zeldin
|
|
| Colorado | 06 | Mike Coffman |
New York
|
19
|
John Faso
|
|
|
Florida
|
18
|
Brian Mast
|
|
New York
|
22
|
Claudia Tenney
|
|
Florida
|
26
|
Carlos Curbelo
|
|
New York
|
24
|
John Katko
|
|
Florida
|
27 |
Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (OPEN)
|
North Carolina
|
02
|
George Holding
|
|
|
Georgia
|
06
|
Karen Handel
|
|
North Carolina
|
09
|
Robert Pittenger
|
|
Georgia
|
07 | Rob Woodall |
|
North Carolina
|
13
|
Ted Budd
|
|
Illinois
|
06
|
Peter Roskam
|
|
Ohio
|
01
|
Steve Chabot
|
| Illinois | 12 | Mike Bost | Ohio |
16
|
Jim Renacci (OPEN)
|
|
|
Illinois
|
13
|
Rodney Davis
|
Pennsylvania |
06
|
Ryan Costello
|
|
|
Illinois
|
14
|
Randy Hultgren
|
|
Pennsylvania |
07
|
Pat Meehan |
| Iowa |
01
|
Rod Blum
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
08
|
Brian Fitzpatrick |
| Iowa | 03 | David Young | Pennsylvania |
15
|
Charlie Dent (OPEN)
|
|
| Kansas |
02
|
Lynn Jenkins (OPEN)
|
|
Pennsylvania |
16
|
Lloyd Smucker
|
| Kansas |
03
|
Kevin Yoder | Texas |
07
|
John Culberson
|
|
| Maine |
02
|
Bruce Poliquin
|
Texas |
23
|
Will Hurd
|
|
|
Michigan
|
07 | Tim Walberg |
|
Texas |
32
|
Pete Sessions
|
| Michigan | 08 | Mike Bishop | Virginia |
02
|
Scott Taylor
|
|
|
Michigan
|
11 |
Dave Trott (OPEN)
|
Virginia |
05
|
Tom Garrett
|
|
| Minnesota | 02 | Jason Lewis | Virginia | 10 | Barbara Comstock | |
| Washington | 08 | David Reichert (OPEN) |
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Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia, Politico, The Hill, Detroit Press, Wiki
