Posted September 11, 2017 | by KimS | in DemDaily, Resource

DemDaily: House Retirements, Races and Ratings

September 11, 2017

While the country continues to ride the daily rollercoaster of the Trump Administration, the Party Committees are focused on the 2018 battles for control of the House and Senate -- and helping individual candidates balance national events with their voters at home.

Democrats hold 194 seats to Republicans 241. It will take a net gain of 24 seats for Democrats to take control of the House in 2018.

Whether disatisfaction with Trump or Congress, the electorate has shifted, as have pundits' recent House seat ratings, giving Democrats increasing hope of taking back the US House of Representatives -- and recent Republican retirements bring them one step closer to their goal.

Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's FLA-27 seat considered likely Democratic Pick-Up

Retirements
In the last week three more Republicans anounced their retirements: Congressman Dave Trott (R/MI-11), where Trump wont by just 4.5% in 2016, Dave Reichert (R/WA-8), whose CD went 47.7% to 44.7% for Clinton, and Charlie Dent (R/PA-15) where voters went 51.8% to 44.2% for Trump.

That brings to eight the number of GOP retirements, including Congresspersons Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R/FLA-27), Lynn Jenkins (R/KS-2), Jim Bridenstein (R/OK-1), Jimmy Duncan Jr. (R/TN-2), and Sam Johnson (R/TX-3).

Bridenstein, Duncan and Johnson's seats are considered solid Republican, but the rest are considered in play, with Ros-Lehtinen's is favored at the outset to go to a Democrat. On the average, since 1976, 22 Members have retired each election cycle.

Another six Republicans have announced departures to run for higher office, all - at this point - rated as strong GOP holds.

House Oversight Committee Chair Darryl Issa is on the Dems' Hit List

Mid-Term Advantage
Dems already have an historical advantage - in that the party outside the White House averaging a pick up of 28 seats in mid-term elections.

Special Elections
Although the five Congressional Special Elections (4R, 1D) so far this year did not flipped any seats, the narrow victory margins in the traditionally Republican seats are an indication of voter discontent with the White House. Dems came within 7% points of winning in three states where Trump beat Clinton last November by 18+%.

Fundraising
Dems are also buoyed by their fundraising success. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee(DCCC) raised twice as much in July as the NRCC - the third month of outraising their Republican counterpart. It brings yearly totals to $66.2 million for the DCCC to the NRCC's $63.9 million.

Of all 435 Congressional seats up in 2018, Cook rates 175 as solid Democrat and 186 as solid Republican. 16 Democratic and 46 Republicans seats fall in the Likely/Lean category, and 3 Democratic and 9 Republican seats are rated as Toss Up or Worse.

For a look at the most vulnerable Republican seats, to follow are the Cook Political Report's September 2017 ratings.

Key: Likely Republican (22), Lean Republican (23) and Republican Toss Up (9), Lean Democrat (1)

Democrats' Top Republican Congressional District Targets

State	District	Incumbent R	State	District	Incumbent R
Arizona	02	Martha McSally	Minnesota	03	Erik Paulsen
California	10	Jeff Denham	Montana	00	Greg Gianforte
California	21	David Valadao	Nebraska	02	Don Bacon
California	25	Steve Knight	New Jersey	03	Tom MacArthur
California	39	Ed Royce	New Jersey	07	Leonard Lance
California	45	Mimi Walters	New Jersey	11	Rodney Frelinghuysen
California	48	Dana Rohrabacher	New Mexico	02	Steve Pearce (OPEN)
California	49	Darrell Issa	New York	01	Lee Zeldin
Colorado	06	Mike Coffman	New York	19	John Faso
Florida	18	Brian Mast	New York	22	Claudia Tenney
Florida	26	Carlos Curbelo	New York	24	John Katko
Florida	27	Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (OPEN)	North Carolina	02	George Holding
Georgia	06	Karen Handel	North Carolina	09	Robert Pittenger
Georgia	07	Rob Woodall	North Carolina	13	Ted Budd
Illinois	06	Peter Roskam	Ohio	01	Steve Chabot
Illinois	12	Mike Bost	Ohio	16	Jim Renacci (OPEN)
Illinois	13	Rodney Davis	Pennsylvania	06	Ryan Costello
Illinois	14	Randy Hultgren	Pennsylvania	07	Pat Meehan
Iowa	01	Rod Blum	Pennsylvania	08	Brian Fitzpatrick
Iowa	03	David Young	Pennsylvania	15	Charlie Dent (OPEN)
Kansas	02	Lynn Jenkins (OPEN)	Pennsylvania	16	Lloyd Smucker
Kansas	03	Kevin Yoder	Texas	07	John Culberson
Maine	02	Bruce Poliquin	Texas	23	Will Hurd
Michigan	07	Tim Walberg	Texas	32	Pete Sessions
Michigan	08	Mike Bishop	Virginia	02	Scott Taylor
Michigan	11	Dave Trott (OPEN)	Virginia	05	Tom Garrett
Minnesota	02	Jason Lewis	Virginia	10	Barbara Comstock
			Washington	08	David Reichert (OPEN)