DemDaily: House Races and Ratings: The List
September 6, 2018
It is that time. With 60 days until the November midterm elections, these are the most targeted, or vulnerable, Republican seats in the US House of Representatives -- 63 in all.
Ratings are based on a review of major political rating reports and, ultimately, DemList's own analysis.
|
Democrats hold 193 seats to Republicans 236, with six vacanies in the US House. It will take a net gain of 23 seats for Democrats to take control of the House in 2018. |
Key: Lean Republican (23) and Republican Toss Up (30), Lean Democrat (8), Likely Democrat (2) In open seats, the outgoing incumbent is noted in parentheses.
|
State
|
District
|
Republican Incumbent and 2018 Candidate
|
2018 Democratic Candidate | Trump (R) 2016 |
Clinton (D) 2016
|
|
Arizona
|
02 | (Martha McSally/Open) Lea Marquez Peterson |
Ann Kirkpatrick | Clinton +5 | |
|
Arkansas
|
02 | French Hill | Clarke Tucker | Trump +10 | |
|
California
|
10
|
Jeff Denham |
Josh Harder
|
Clinton +3
|
|
|
California
|
25 | Steve Knight |
Katie Hill
|
Clinton +6.7 | |
|
California
|
39
|
(Ed Royce/Open) Young Kim |
Gil Cisneros
|
Clinton +8.6
|
|
|
California
|
45
|
Mimi Walters |
Katie Porter
|
Clinton +5.4
|
|
|
California
|
48 | Dana Rohrabacher |
Harley Rouda
|
Clinton +1.7
|
|
|
California
|
49 | (Darrell Issa/Open) Diane Harkey |
Mike Levin |
Clinton +7.5
|
|
| Colorado | 06 | Mike Coffman | Jason Crow |
Clinton +8.9
|
|
|
Florida
|
15 | (Dennis Ross/Open) Ross Spano |
Kristen Carlson | Trump +10 | |
|
Florida
|
16 | Vern Buchanan | David Shapiro | Trump +10.7 | |
|
Florida
|
18
|
Brian Mast
|
Lauren Baer
|
Trump +9.2
|
|
|
Florida
|
26
|
Carlos Curbelo
|
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
|
Clinton +16.3
|
|
|
Florida
|
27 |
(Ileana Ros-Lehtinen/Open)
|
Donna Shalala | Clinton +19.6 | |
|
Georgia
|
06
|
Karen Handel
|
Lucy McBath
|
Trump +1.5 | |
|
Illinois
|
06
|
Peter Roskam
|
Sean Casten
|
Clinton +6.7
|
|
|
Illinois
|
12 | Mike Bost | Brendan Kelly | Trump +14.8 | |
| Illinois | 13 | Rodney Davis | Betsey Dirksen Londrigan | Trump +5.5 | |
|
Illinois
|
14
|
Randy Hultgren
|
Lauren Underwood | Trump +3.9 | |
|
Iowa
|
01 | Rod Blum | Abby Finkenauer | Trump +3.5 | |
|
Iowa
|
03 | David Young | Cindy Axne | Trump +3.5 | |
|
Kansas
|
02
|
(Lynn Jenkins/Open)
|
Paul Davis
|
Trump +18.4 | |
|
Kansas
|
03
|
Kevin Yoder | Sharice Davids | Clinton +1.2 | |
|
Kentucky
|
06 | Andy Barr | Amy McGrath | Trump +15.3 | |
|
Maine
|
02
|
Bruce Poliquin
|
Jared Golden | Trump +10.3 | |
|
Michigan
|
08 | Mike Bishop | Elissa Slotkin |
Trump +6.7
|
|
|
Michigan
|
11 |
(Dave Trott/Open)
|
Haley Stevens |
Trump +4.4
|
|
| Minnesota | 02 | Jason Lewis | Angie Craig | Trump +1.2 | |
|
Minnesota
|
03 | Erik Paulsen | Dean Phillips | Clinton +9.4 | |
|
Montana
|
At-Large | Greg Gianforte | Kathleen Williams | Trump +20.6 | |
|
Nebraska
|
02 | Don Bacon | Kara Eastman | Trump +2.2 | |
|
New Jersey
|
02 | (Frank LoBiondo/Open) Seth Grossman |
Jeff Van Drew | Trump +4.6 | |
|
New Jersey
|
03 | Tom MacArthur | Andy Kim | Trump +6.2 | |
|
New Jersey
|
07 | Leonard Lance | Tom Malinowski | Trump +1.1 | |
|
New Jersey
|
11
|
(Rodney Frelinghuysen/Open) Jay Webber |
Mikie Sherrill | Trump +0.9 | |
|
New Mexico
|
02 | (Steve Pearce/Open) Yvette Herrell |
Xochiltl Torres Small | Trump +10.2 | |
|
New York
|
19 | John Faso | Antonio Delgado | Trump +6.8 | |
|
New York
|
22 | Claudia Tenney | Anthony Brindisi | Trump +15.5 | |
|
North Carolina
|
09 | (Robert Pittenger/Open) Mark Harris |
Dan McCready | Trump +11.6 | |
|
North Carolina
|
13 | Ted Budd | Kathy Manning | Trump +9.4 | |
|
Ohio
|
01 | Steve Chabot | Aftab Pureval | Trump +6.6 | |
|
Ohio
|
12 | Troy Balderson | Danny O'Connor | Trump +11.3 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
01 | Brian Fitzpatrick | Scott Wallace | Clinton +2.0 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
05 | (Meehan/Vacant) Pearl Kim |
Mary Gay Scanlon | Clinton +28.2 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
06 | (Ryan Costello/Open) Greg McCauley |
Chrissy Houlahan | Clinton +9.3 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
07 | (Charlie Dent/) Marty Nothstein | Susan Wild | Clinton+1.1 | |
| Pennsylvania |
10
|
Scott Perry | George Scott | Trump +8.9 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
16 | Mike Kelly | Ron DiNicola | Trump +19.9 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
17 | (Cartwright) Keith Rothfus | Conor Lamb | Trump +2.5 | |
|
South Carolina
|
01 | (Open/Mark Sanford) Katie Arrington |
Joe Cunningham | Trump +13.1 | |
|
Texas
|
07 | John Culberson | Lizzie Fletcher | Clinton +1.4 | |
|
Texas
|
23 | Will Hurd | Gina Ortiz Jones | Clinton +3.4 | |
|
Texas
|
32 | Pete Sessions | Colin Allred | Clinton +1.9 | |
|
Utah
|
04 | Mia Love | Ben McAdams | Trump +6.7 | |
|
Virginia
|
02 | Scott Taylor | Elaine Luria | Trump +3.2 | |
|
Virginia
|
05 | (Tom Garrett/Open) Denver Riggleman |
Leslie Cockburn | Trump +11.1 | |
|
Virginia
|
07 | Dave Brat | Abigail Spanberger | Trump +6.5 | |
|
Virginia
|
10 | Barbara Comstock | Jennifer Wexton | Clinton +9.9 | |
|
Washington
|
03 | Herrera Beutler | Carolyn Long | Trump +7.4 | |
|
Washington
|
05 | McMorris Rodgers | Lisa Brown | Trump +10.3 | |
|
Washington
|
08
|
David Reichert (Open) Dino Rossi |
Kim Schrier | Clinton +3.0 | |
|
Wisconsin
|
01 | (Paul Ryan/Open) Bryan Steil |
Randy Bryce | Trump +10.3 | |
|
West Virginia
|
03 | (Evan Jenkins/Open) Carol Miller |
Richard Ojeda | Trump +49.2 |
Note: Pennsylvania Districts are listed according to the new Congressional District map, as determined by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in February, 2018. The Republican incumbent who previously represented the majority of that geographic area under the old District map is indicated, as is the incumbent or candidate who is running in the newly drawn seat. Also noted are the results of the 2016 election, as reconfigured under each new District map. FIgures vary according to source (PA figures are Daily Kos #s).
*In Pennsylania's new 17th District, Republican incumbent Keith Rothfus (previously in the 12th CD) and Democrat incumbent Conor Lamb (previously in the 18th) are pitted against each other.
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Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia, InsideElections/Gonzalez, DailyKos, Sabato's Crystal Ball, DCCC
