DemDaily: House Races and Ratings: Democrats
October 24, 2018
Now less than two weeks out from the midterms, expectation of a blue wave are undiminished, but at least ten Democratic seats are still in play.
The latest Rasmussen Report, out today, shows that 47% of likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate, compared to 44% who would opt for the Republican. 3% preferred some other candidate, and 6% were undecided.
The October 14-18th poll portrays the narrowest point spread yet in a generic Congressional Ballot, compared to RealClearPolitics' average of ten major polls conducted between October 1-17, showing Dems with a 7.7% lead.
The Numbers
* Democrats hold 193 seats to Republicans 236, with six vacancies in the US House.
* Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the US House in 2018.
* Democrats have 21 open seats, Republicans have 38 open seats.
* DemList counts 68 Republican Congressional seats that are considered truly vulnerable,
from Lean Republican (22) and Toss Up (29) to Lean Democrat (13), and Likely Democrat (4).
DemList counts ten vulnerable Democratic Congressional seats. Click on the state to link to the candidate's site and support!
REPUBLICANS' TOP DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT TARGETS
Key: Likely Republican (2) Democratic Toss Up (1), Lean Democrat (3), Likely Democrat (4) *=Incumbent
|
State/Rating
|
District
|
*Incumbent and 2018 Democratic Candidate
|
2018 Republican Candidate | Clinton (D) 2016 |
Trump (R) 2016
|
| 02 | *Tom O'Halleran | Wendy Rogers | Trump +1.1 | ||
| 07 | *Stephanie Murphy | Mike Miller | Clinton +7.3 | ||
| 01 | (Open/*Tim Walz, running for Governor) Dan Feehan |
Jim Hagedorn | Trump +14.9 | ||
| 07 | *Collin Peterson | Dave Hughes | Trump +30.8 | ||
| 08 | (Open/*Rick Nolan, ran for Lt. Governor, defeated in primary) Joe Radinovich |
Pete Stauber | Trump +15.6 | ||
| 01 | (Open/*Carol Shea-Porter, retiring) Chris Pappas |
Eddie Edwards | Trump +2.2 | ||
| 03 | (Open/*Jacky Rosen, running for US Senate) Susie Lee |
Danny Tarkanian | Trump +1 | ||
| 04 | (Open/*Ruben Kihuen, retiring) Steven Horsford |
Cresent Hardy | Clinton +4.9 | ||
| 08 | *Matt Cartwright (previously in old 17th CD) | John Chrin | Trump +9.6 | ||
| 14 | (Open/*Conor Lamb, running in new 17th CD) Bibiana Boerio |
Guy Reschenthaler | Trump +29 |
Related
DemList: House Races and Ratings: Republicans 10/23/18
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Kimberly Scott
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Sources: Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, DailyKos, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics
