DemDaily: Haley Holds On After New Hampshire

January 24, 2024

Former President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary last night, defeating challenger Nikki Haley 54.4% to 44.3%, and becoming the first candidate to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential contests since they began leading the election calendar in 1976.

Haley, who was trailing Trump by close to 20 points going into Tuesday's election, declared the 10% margin a victory, assuring supporters she is in the race until "Super Tuesday" March 5, when 15 states and one territory go to the polls.

"I am a fighter and I'm scrappy," said Haley before an exuberant crowd, "and now we're the last ones standing next to Donald Trump. This race is far from over.”

Over 320,000 people voted in the New Hampshire Republican primary. shattering previous turnout records. In 2016, the last competitive GOP primary, around 287,000 people voted.

Trump, flanked by family and former primary rivals US Senator Tim Scott (SC) and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy on stage, was visibly irritated by Haley's announcement that she was staying in the race -- attacking his former UN Ambassador as an "imposter" and claiming that she could be "under investigation" without any reference to wrongdoing on her part.

In a strikingly petty moment, Trump turned to Scott, pointing out that the South Carolina US Senator -- despite having been appointed to the office in 2013 by Haley when she was governor -- still chose to endorse Trump over her. "You must really hate her," said Trump, to which Scott feebly responded, "No, I just love you."

While Haley exceeded expectations, the path after New Hampshire -- where she benefited heavily from the nearly 44% of the electorate who identified as independent -- becomes considerably harder to map.

Conversely, last night's results underscore the need for Trump to make inroads among independents and moderates who will be critical to a general election victory over Joe Biden.

The winnowing of what was originally a 13-candidate field for the GOP nomination has moved at an unusually rapid place, with Trump maintaining a significant lead over rivals since he announced in November 2022.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis -- initially thought to be Trump's most formidable rival -- came in a distant 30-point second place to the former president in the January 15 Iowa caucus, and dropped out Sunday night after polling showed him in the single digits going into the New Hampshire primary.

As the last obstacle to Trump's nomination, Haley has considerable financial backing. Her campaign announced over $4 million in ads buys in her home Palmetto State this morning, which does not take into account expenditures by super PACs supporting her candidacy.

See: DemDaily: The 2024 Presidential Primary Calendar

Despite his absence from the official ballot, Joe Biden won a resounding victory as a write-in candidate, securing the support of an estimated 66% of approximately 120,000 New Hampshire's unsanctioned Democratic primary goers.

Insurgent Congressman Dean Phillips (MN), who positioned himself as a younger alternative to Biden, garnered 19.5% and author Marianne Williamson, the only other name challenger, received 4.6%.

The Democratic presidential primary calendar kicks off February 3 in South Carolina, the state that delivered Biden a pivotal win in his 2020 election.

DemList will keep you informed.

Related
DemDaily: Tonight's New Hampshire Democratic "Primary" 1/23/23
DemDaily: DeSantis Bows Out Ahead of New Hampshire 1/22/23
DemDaily: Trump Dominates First in Nation Caucus 1/16/23
DemDaily: Haley and DeSantis: The Race for Second Place 1/12/23
DemDaily: Christie Concedes Presidential Primary 1/11/23
DemDaily: Tonight's Showdown! The Fifth Republican Debate 1/10/23
DemDaily: The 2024 Presidential Primary Calendar! 1/4/23
DemDaily: The GOP Primary: A Snapshot 12/12/23
DemDaily: Countdown to Iowa. The Fourth Debate 12/8/23
DemDaily: The Dwindling GOP Field 12/5/23
DemDaily: New Hampshire First? 11/17/23

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Kimberly Scott
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Resources: AP, CNN, FiveThirtyEight, The Hill

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