Posted November 4, 2025 | by KimS | in 2025 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Gubernatorial, Judicial, Mayors, Redistricting, State Supreme Court

DemDaily: Early Vote, Election Day: The Status

November 4, 2025

As we kick off Election Day 2025, early vote numbers and final tracking polls over the last 24 hours provide the most tangible forecast of the outcome in today's consequential races in New York, Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California.

Ten months into the second term of President Donald Trump, the 2025 elections are naturally a referendum on the White House -- providing American voters their first opportunity to weigh in on what is already considered the most controversial and corrupt presidency in history.

NEW YORK
Among the hundreds of mayoral elections up in 2025, the New York City Mayor's race is unquestionably the highest-profile -- closely watched nationwide as an indicator of the direction of both the electorate and the Democratic Party in the age of Trump.

In the solidly blue city, the winner of the Democratic primary is normally the presumptive victor of the general election. The unprecedented dynamics of this election, however, have led to one of the most riveting political chapters in the city's history -- pitting two radically different Democrats -- in age, ideology, and institutional experience -- against each other, and challenging conventional campaign models and messaging.

Queens State Assemblyman and 34-year-old Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani's upset primary victory over former three-term centrist Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, 67, and nine other candidates was a major win for progressives and those within the national Party who have argued for a generational shift to younger candidates over establishment figures.

Early Voting (October 25-November 2): Roughly 735,000 New Yorkers cast early ballots -- the highest early in-person turnout ever for a nonpresidential election in New York -- more than four times as many early ballots cast in the 2021 mayoral election.

Sunday, the final day of early voting, saw a peak of 151,000 early voters, and more voters under 35 than in the first weekend combined -- from Friday to Sunday, over 145,000 voters under the age of 35 cast ballots.

Polling: An October 31-November 2 AtlasIntel poll of likely New York voters showed Mamdani leading Cuomo, 43.9%-39.4%.

Mamdani held a commanding lead among all voters age 44 or younger, while Cuomo held an eight-point advantage among respondents age 45-64 and a 25-point lead among respondents age 65+. Sliwa trailed both candidates considerably, polling at 15% among all respondents (MOE: ±2%).

VIRGINIA
In the Virginia Gubernatorial election, where former three-term Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears are battling to become the Commonwealth's first female governor, Virginians have broken records in their early race to the ballot box.

Early Vote (September 19-November 1): Over 1.43 million people registered their opinion in advance, either by mail or in person -- up 300,000 early votes from the 2021 gubernatorial election, and 22% of the total 6.3 million registered Virginia voters. Democrats are reported to have a 58% voting advantage among early ballots.

Polling: A November 2-3 InsiderAdvantage poll of likely voters shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 10 points, 50%-40%, with 5% voting for another person, and 5% undecided (MOE: ±3.46%)..

Other key elections in the Commonwealth, all consequential to state and national politics, are the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General's races and the State House, where Democrats hold a tenuous 51-49 majority.

NEW JERSEY
Over 1.33 million early and mail-in ballots were cast in the high-stakes New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (D-11) and former Republican State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli -- with the latest polling showing them in a statistical dead heat.

Early Vote (October 25-November 2): New Jersey Democrats have “won” both the vote-by-mail vote and the in-person early vote, with an estimated 675,000 registered Democrats having already voted, compared to 386,000 registered Republicans.

Democrats made up an astounding 51% -- more than half -- of the advance vote in New Jersey, while Republicans accounted for 29% and "Other" 20%. The high turnout bodes well for Sherrill and the other races on the ballot, including Lt. Governor, the New Jersey General Assembly, and municipal elections.

Polling: An October 25-30 AtlasIntel poll of likely New Jersey voters shows Sherrill and Ciattarelli in a statistical tie, at 50%-49% respectively, leading up to Election Day (MOE: ±2%). A November 2–3 Research Co. survey has Sherrill leading 48%-46%.

In The Garden State, which Kamala Harris won by 6%in 2024, 40% of likely voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 56% disapprove.

CALIFORNIA
In the vote-by-mail Golden State, more than 6.6 million ballots have been returned so far in the Proposition 50 Special Election -- a legislatively referred constitutional amendment which would temporarily shift California's congressional district map in favor of five new Democratic congressional seats.

The ballot measure, also known as the Election Rigging Response Act, is Democrats' counteroffensive to the broader political firestorm ignited in July by President Donald Trump in Texas, where he directed the legislature to conduct a rare mid-decade redrawing of the state's congressional map to advantage five new GOP seats.

So far, three other red states have followed suit in what has become an unprecedented national partisan redistricting war with profound implications for the 2026 midterms, the future of reapportionment, and the Voting Rights Act (VRA).

Early Vote: Of the mail-in vote, 33% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans have turned in their ballots. That equates to more than 3.4 million votes out of 10.3 million total ballots mailed for Democrats and 1.8 million votes out of 5.8 million total ballots mailed for Republicans.

The turnout for voters classified as independent or other is 21%, equating to 1.4 million ballots returned out of 6.8 million mailed.

Polling: an October 20–27, 2025 Berkeley IGS poll of likely voters showed 60% supported Prop 50, 38% opposed and 2% were unsure.

PENNSYLVANIA
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court boasts a 5-2 Democratic majority with three Democratic seats up for retention election this year.

The balance of the Keystone State's high court, which has played a pivotal role in voting rights fights over the last decade, has grave implications for the key swing state in the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election.

Early Vote: Pennsylvania does not have early voting, but offers a similar option called "voting in person by mail ballot," before Election Day, where voters can fill out and return their mail ballot on the spot. The last day to apply for a mail ballot was October 28.

As of Monday, more than 571,000 of the 1.1 million absentee ballots requested statewide had already been cast. About 67% of these votes came from Democrats, and about 25% were from Republicans.

Polling: A September 24–October 5, 2025 Franklin and Marshall poll of likely voters showed 39% supported retention, 29% were opposed and 32% were undecided (MOE: ± 4.0%).

DemList will keep you informed.

Related
DemDaily: 2025 Election Calendar Countdown! 10/30/25
DemDaily: Battlefield Virginia: The Landscape 10/29/25
DemDaily: Fighting Fire With Fire: Prop 50 10/16/25
DemDaily: The Keystone State’s Consequential Court 10/7/25
DemDaily: New Jersey Gubernatorial Narrowing 9/29/25

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