DemDaily: Courting The Latino Vote
October 29, 2024
In the wake of racist comments about Latinos and other minorities made at a Madison Square Garden Trump rally Sunday, the former president has been met with a furious backlash and widespread national condemnation across the political spectrum -- giving Democrats hope for a pivotal boost among the critical voting bloc just one week ahead of the election.
| “These Latinos, they love making babies, too. Just know that they do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country...There’s a lot going on. I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.” - Comedian and Podcast Host Tony Hinchcliffe, Oct 27 |
Among the most influential constituencies in the 2024 presidential election, the Latino community comprises close to 20% of the US population, or 65.2 million people, and approximately 14.7% of the voting electorate.
Often referred to as "the sleeping giant," Latinos are the second fastest-growing voting group in the United States, with an estimated 36.2 million eligible to vote this year -- up from 32.3 million in 2020 when 61% voted for President Joe Biden. According to Pew Research, they represented 50% of the total growth in all eligible voters during that period.
The Latino vote is far from monolithic, with Puerto Ricans (5.5 million), Dominicans and Guatemalans tending to vote for Democrats, while Cubans (2.6 million), Columbians and Venezuelans often vote for Republicans. Mexican Americans (38.5 million) are all over the map — not anchored in any particular ideology or voting pattern.
The bloc also stands apart for its youth vote. Some 31% of eligible Latino voters are between the ages of 18 and 29, compared with 20% of the national electorate. As many as 22% of Latinos could be first-time voters.
Both campaigns have invested heavily in courting the Latino vote in the crucial seven presidential battleground states, where there are also critical Senate, House and legislative races.
According to Statista, Latinos represent a double-digit percentage of the population in Arizona, (31.5%), Georgia (11.08%), Nevada (29.94%), North Carolina (11.42%), with notable numbers in Michigan (5.96%), Wisconsin (8.09%) and Pennsylvania (8.89%).
Hispanics will also have a heavy influence in Florida (27.41%) and Texas (39.78%), two of the largest electoral states that also have competitive US Senate races in 2024.
Top battleground state Pennsylvania, home to the country's third largest Puerto Rican population, has become ground zero for the fallout from the derogatory and misogynistic comments from the Trump rally.
There are 580,000 eligible Latino voters in Pennsylvania, more than 300,000 of whom are Puerto Rican. According to an October 2-10 CBS poll (MOE:±2.25%), 66% have said they intend to vote, with another 17% "probable" voters.
Harris, who was campaigning in The Keystone State on Sunday, immediately unveiled a plan for Puerto Rico, which was pushed out on social media by Bad Bunny, a Puerto Rican rapper and singer, to his more than 45 million Instagram followers.
Seizing on the controversy, her campaign swiftly responded with a digital attack ad targeting Latino voters that argues they “deserve better” than Trump, whose campaign has said the comments by Hinchcliffe and other speakers were "not representative" of his views.
Pennsylvania's "Latino Corridor" is a prime focus for the campaigns in the final week -- including Reading, Lancaster and Allentown, which boasts the state's largest Puerto Rican residents. and where Trump is holding an event tonight.
As anticipated, the road to the White House goes through Pennsylvania.
| Representation: Although Latinos comprise 20% of the US population, they hold only 11.28% of the membership in Congress and 2% of all elected offices nationwide. Fifty-six Hispanic or Latino Members serve in the US House, including three non-voting US Territory representatives and four House Members of split descent. 38 are Democrats and 18 are Republicans. Nineteen are women. In the US Senate, there are six members: Democrats Alex Padilla (California), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada), and Ben Ray Luján (New Mexico), and Republicans Marco Rubio (Florida) and Ted Cruz (Texas). |
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Sources: CRS, US Census, Pew Research, UCLA, AS/COA, UnidosUS/BSP Research, NBC, Latino Donor Collaborative, NALEO, Statista
