Posted September 30, 2026 | by KimS | in 2026 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Senate

DemDaily: Converting Kansas

September 30, 2026

At 34 days out from the election, amid a historically rapid shift by the electorate toward Democrats, future control of the US Senate is far from decided.

Of the 35 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, Democrats are defending 13 seats (including four open seats) and Republicans defending 22 seats (including eight open seats). With a 53-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate.

In our updated ratings, the toss-ups have narrowed to seven -- one Democratic and six Republican-held seats -- with two more hovering in the wings, and still a few outliers that are climbing out of the purgatory of solid red in the final weeks of the 2026 midterms.

Democrats are fighting to hold on to the open seat vacated by incumbent Gary Peters in critical presidential battleground Michigan, and are struggling to keep the open seat in New Hampshire, where Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, in the lean Democrat category.

The GOP-held seats include Alaska (Sullivan), Maine (Collins), Ohio (Husted), and the open seats in Iowa (Ernst) and Texas (Cornyn). The sixth is Kansas, still leaning Republican by most analyses, but we believe it now falls squarely among the most competitive column.

"We've got to talk about the economy. We've got to talk about the cost of living. This weekend, I'm going to Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa to help raise money and campaign for our very good candidates. If you told me six months ago I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn't have believed you. Those oughta be fat guy layups for us." -- Republican Senator John Kennedy (LA) to reporters 9/17/26

"We've got to talk about the economy. We've got to talk about the cost of living. This weekend, I'm going to Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa to help raise money and campaign for our very good candidates. If you told me six months ago I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn't have believed you. Those oughta be fat guy layups for us." -- Republican Senator John Kennedy (LA) to reporters 9/17/26

The unusual, if not first-time, inclusion of historically red Midwestern states is due in no small part to frustration over Trump's handling of the economy, including record-high diesel prices, soaring fertilizer costs, and ongoing trade disputes that have threatened local agricultural and manufacturing jobs.

Trump is underwater with Kansas voters at a 40% approval rating, and nationally at an average 37% approval rating.

KANSAS
Senate: Perhaps the most unanticipated is Kansas, where Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton is in a statistically tied race with incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall -- in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the upper chamber since 1932.

Hamilton, 62, who secured 34.6% to win the crowded 11-candidate August 4 primary, is the founding Senior Pastor of Church of the Resurrection, which has nine locations in the Greater Kansas City area, and is the largest United Methodist congregation in the country.

A nationally recognized spiritual leader, Hamilton was appointed by Barack Obama to the President's Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships in 2016, and is a best-selling author of more than 30 books. He has a weekly podcast, his services are aired Sunday mornings on local TV stations and streamed live by the church, and his video-based lessons are used in Sunday school classes across the United States.

The first-time candidate and "independent-minded Democrat" says he is "dedicated to leading from the center" and building a coalition across party lines -- similar to that of his congregation, which reportedly is split about evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Much like Democratic candidate James Talarcico in Texas, who is a state legislator and Presbyterian seminarian, Hamilton's politics are rooted in his faith, but he advocates separation of church and state -- claiming that the use of Christianity in culture wars has created “a wedge that drives people away" rather than drawing it to them. Their candidacies also defy the longstanding GOP claim that their foes are hostile to people of faith.

Marshall, 66, an OB-GYN doctor by profession, practiced for nearly 25 years before being elected to represent Kansas' First Congressional District in 2016. He was elected to the US Senate in 2020, defeating Democratic State Senator Barbara Bollier 53.22%-41.79%. He succeeded Republican Senator Pat Roberts.

Marshall came under fire after a September 8 New York Times article reported that he had filed more than 700 lawsuits against patients over unpaid bills and that 81 patients were arrested in connection with those debt cases for amounts as little as $50.

When asked about the issue in a September 12 debate with Hamilton, Marshall called suing patients "common business practice" and the crowd broke into "Shame on you" chants. The issue is prominently featured in a Hamilton campaign ad.

Sunflower State Politics
Apart from brief Populist and Democratic interruptions in the 1890s and 1930s, Kansas has been reliably Republican since it achieved statehood in 1981. Kansans have voted Republican in every presidential election since 1940 except one, Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. They delivered Trump a 16.1-point victory over Kamala Harris in 2024, up from 14.7 points over Joe Biden in 2020.

Republicans hold veto-proof supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, and four of the six statewide Executive offices. The pattern breaks, however, with the governor's office, where Kansans have voted in Democrats for a majority of the past 70 years.

Although registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats almost two to one, unaffiliated voters -- who will be the key to winning in November -- are the second-largest bloc at approximately 29%. The long-running split between moderates and conservatives among state Republicans also benefits Democrats, with moderates often crossing over to Democrats in statewide races.

Incumbent Laura Kelly was first elected in 2018 by five points over now-Attorney General Kris Kobach (R), and was reelected in 2022, 49.5%-47.3%, over Derek Schmidt (R), now the Second CD Congressman.

In the same year, in the first ballot referendum to go before voters since the Supreme Court's June 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Sunflower State voters famously rejected, 59 %-41%, a constitutional amendment to ban abortion.

*Polling: A September 15-16, 2026 Emerson* poll of likely voters had Hamilton leading Marshall 45%-43%, with 4% for Libertarian David Graham and 8% undecided (MOE: ±3.6%).**

Polling: A September 15-16, 2026 Emerson poll of likely voters had Hamilton leading Marshall 45%-43%, with 4% for Libertarian David Graham and 8% undecided (MOE: ±3.6%).

All six executive offices are on the ballot this November, as well as the Senate race, US House elections and the State House.

Governor: Moderate Governor Laura Kelly, one of the few Democrats to hold the office in an otherwise red state, is term-limited -- giving Republicans a shot at retaking the seat.

Self-described anti-establishment populist State Senator Cindy Holscher, who won the August 4 Democratic primary with 48.8%, is facing Trump-backed State Senate President Ty Masterson, who clinched the GOP nomination with 43.2%, defeating six other contenders in a heated and expensive primary.

The same Emerson poll had Masterson leading Holscher 51%-43%, with 6% undecided.

Attorney General: Incumbent Kris Kobach (R) v. Chris Mann (D). A rematch of their 2022 contest, when Kobach narrowly defeated Mann 51%-49%.
Secretary of State (open): Pat Proctor (R) vs. Jennifer Day (D). Recent polling has them in a dead heat.
Treasurer: Incumbent Steven Johnson (R) vs. Juan "JC" Luengo (D)
Insurance Commissioner (open): House Speaker Dan Hawkins (R) v. Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes (D)

US House: All four incumbents are up for re-election, with three rated as safely Republican seats, and the fourth, lone Democrat Sharice Davids (CD-3), heavily favored to win a fifth term.