Posted March 24, 2025 | by KimS | in 2026 Elections, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Senate

DemDaily: Battleground New Hampshire

March 24, 2025

New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen will not be seeking a fourth term, making her the third Democrat up in 2026 who has declined to run for reelection -- behind Senators Gary Peters (MI) and Tina Smith (MN).

This will be the first open Senate election in the moderate blue swing state since 2010 and it immediately set off a high-stakes race in the battleground where politics has been called the "state sport."

Shaheen, 78, who leaves office with a 52% approval-37% disapproval rating, first served in the New Hampshire State Senate for six years before being elected Governor in 1996 -- the first woman in American history to be elected both Governor and United States Senator,

She was reelected in 1998, and 2000, and in 2002 ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate against then-Republican Congressman John Sununu. In their 2008 rematch, Shaheen unseated Sununu 51.62%-45.28% -- becoming the first Democratic Senator elected from New Hampshire in over three decades.

Shaheen was reelected in 2014 and in 2020 by 15.6 points. She is credited with reviving the Democratic Party in a state that was once overwhelmingly Republican.

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats to Democrats' 47 (including two Independents).

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats to Democrats' 47 (including two Independents).

The Landscape
While Republicans are defending the larger share of seats, 20 are considered "safe," or "likely," and just two seats are vulnerable: five-term Maine Senator Susan Collins and two-term Senator Tom Tillis of North Carolina.

Of Democrats' 13 seats, nine are viewed as safe, with the remaining four - Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire -- among 2026's top targeted seats as Republicans attempt to narrow their four-seat majority.

On the federal level, Granite Staters have voted for the Democratic candidate in the last six presidential elections, albeit by consistently small margins. Kamala Harris took New Hampshire in 2024 with 2.78% and Joe Biden won New Hampshire by just over 7% in 2020.

Democrats hold both Senate seats -- the state's junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, was reelected in 2022 by over nine points -- and both congressional seats by Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander.

While voters in what many call a "purple" state send Democrats to Washington, they tend to send Republicans to the state capital.

In 2024, former one-term US Senator Kelly Ayotte, who was unseated by then-Governor Maggie Hassan by just over 1,000 votes in 2016, was elected to succeed retiring four-term Republican Governor Chris Sununu. Ayotte defeated former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) 53.6%-44.3%. New Hampshire, along with bordering Vermont, limits their gubernatorial terms to two years. Both the New Hampshire Attorney General and Secretary of State are also Republican.

Control of the New Hampshire legislature has switched back and forth between Republicans and Democrats for the last two decades, with the GOP currently in the majority in both the State House of Representatives (221-178) and the State Senate (16-8).

The Contenders
While no candidates have declared since Shaheen's March 12 announcement, there is no shortage of contenders for the rare open seat.

Among Democrats, Pappas, now in his fourth term in Congress (CD-1), has expressed interest, as has former Congresswoman Annie Kuster (CD-2) and newly elected US Representative Maggie Goodlander, who succeeded her. Stefany Shaheen, former Portsmouth City Councelor and daughter of incumbent Jeanne Shaheen has also been mentioned..

Among Republicans, Sununu has said he has "not ruled it out completely," and Scott Brown, former US Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020) and former Massachusetts US Senator (2010–2013), is reportedly "seriously considering" a run. Brown unsuccessfully challenged Shaheen in 2014, who defeated him 51%-48%.