Posted October 29, 2025 | by KimS | in 119th Congress, 2025 Elections, Attorney General, DemDaily, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Gubernatorial, State Issues, State Legislature

DemDaily: Battlefield Virginia: The Landscape

October 29, 2025

The battle to become the first female governor of Virginia is raging, with attack ads saturating the airwaves and online as analysts look to the outcome as a barometer of the mood of the electorate ahead of next year's 2026 congressional midterms.

Less than one week out from the November 4 general elections, polling shows former three-term Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leading her Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, by seven points.

Other key elections in the Commonwealth, all consequential to state and national politics, are the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General's races, as well as the State House, where Democrats hold a tenuous majority.

Virginia and New Jersey, the only two gubernatorial races up in 2025, are both considered bellwethers for the direction of voter sentiment as the first statewide tests since Donald Trump reclaimed the White House. Virginia is the only state in the union that limits its governor to one, non-consecutive term, making Virginia Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin ineligible for reelection.

Virginia and New Jersey, the only two gubernatorial races up in 2025, are both considered bellwethers for the direction of voter sentiment as the first statewide tests since Donald Trump reclaimed the White House. Virginia is the only state in the union that limits its governor to one, non-consecutive term, making Virginia Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin ineligible for reelection.

The Old Dominion
Once reliably red, the Old Dominion solidified its transition to a battleground blue state over the last decade, voting Democrat in the past four presidential elections -- awarding Kamala Harris a 5.8% victory in 2024. The last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election.

Democrats, however, experienced a devastating blow in 2021 when Republicans narrowly swept the state's top three offices – putting Youngkin, a Trump-endorsed former hedge fund CEO who defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) 50.58%-48.64%, in the governor's mansion.

Democrats control both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly by a slim majority; Virginia's US Senators are Democrats Mark Warner (elected 2008) and Tim Kaine (elected 2012), and six of its 11 congressional districts are represented by Democrats..

Governor
Spanberger, a former CIA intelligence officer, was elected to represent the expansive Fredericksburg-based 7th Congressional District in 2018, unseating incumbent Congressman Dave Brat (R) and breaking Republicans' 38-year hold on the seat. She won reelection in 2020 and 2022 before resigning from Congress in November 2023 to run for governor.

Former Marine, small businesswoman, and "unapologetic" conservative Earle-Sears served in the State House from 2002-2004 before running unsuccessfully for Congress in 2004.

She served on the Virginia Board of Education and, in 2020, was National Chair of the pro-Trump PAC Black Americans to Re-elect the President.

In 2021, Earle-Sears defeated Democrat Hala Ayala 50.7%-59.2% to become not only the first woman, but the first woman of color to hold the position of Lt. Governor in the state's history.

In an October 21-23 Christopher Newport University (CNU) poll of likely voters, Spanberger led Earle-Sears 50%-43%, with 6% undecided. Spanberger’s support is driven by Democratic voters (97%), Independents (48%-42%), Black voters (84%-6%), women (57%-37%), voters aged 18-44 (53%-37%), and voters with college degrees (58%-35%). Earle-Sears has the support of 95% of her party and leads among white voters (54%-33%), male voters (51%-43%), and voters without college degrees (52%-43%). (MOE:+/-4.1%)

In an October 21-23 Christopher Newport University (CNU) poll of likely voters, Spanberger led Earle-Sears 50%-43%, with 6% undecided. Spanberger’s support is driven by Democratic voters (97%), Independents (48%-42%), Black voters (84%-6%), women (57%-37%), voters aged 18-44 (53%-37%), and voters with college degrees (58%-35%). Earle-Sears has the support of 95% of her party and leads among white voters (54%-33%), male voters (51%-43%), and voters without college degrees (52%-43%). (MOE:+/-4.1%)

Spanberger holds a two-to-one fundraising advantage, on track to surpass McAuliffe's previous record of $55 million raised. Her campaign reported an October haul of $11.7 million, with $4 million cash on hand. Earle-Sears' campaign reported raising $9.5 million this month for a total $27 million raised and $1.3 million cash on hand.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), as of the October 27 filing, Pro-Spanberger/Anti-Earle-Sears groups had spent $26 million and Pro-Earle-Sears/Anti-Spanberger had spent $13.1 million.

The impact of the government shutdown at the ballot booth remains unclear, but it is more likely to fall at the feet of Republicans should it go far beyond the election, which would mark the 35th day of the shutdown -- and the record for Congress's longest shutdown. If Democrats win in both Virginia and New Jersey, the perceived message from the electorate to the GOP would likely bring the standoff to a more expedited conclusion.

An October 5-20 Reuters/Ipsos poll of US adults found that 50% of respondents blamed Republicans for the current shutdown, while 43% held Democrats responsible for the impasse. Among non-party-affiliated voters, 51% held Republicans responsible, while 34% blamed Democrats (MOE: +/-2%).

In Reuters/Ipsos' October 24-26 weekly tracking, 57% of respondents said they disapprove of the job President Trump is doing in office, while 40% approved.

More significant to Northern Virginians is Trump's slash and shrink of the federal workforce. Virginia has the second-most federal employees of any state in the country, outside of California, and Spanberger has assailed the president for firing and laying off hundreds of thousands of government employees in his first nine months in office. Earle-Sears, who Trump recently declared a “very good candidate," supports the president’s efforts to "trim federal bureaucracy."

Core issues: The CNU poll found that the most important issues for voters at the ballot box were: threats to democracy -- matching inflation at 18% -- followed by health care (11%) and immigration (9%). For Republicans, immigration (20%) and cost of living (19%) rank highest, followed by crime (12%). Top issues among Democrats were: threats to democracy (31%), healthcare (19%), and inflation/cost of living (17%). Most Independents cited threats to democracy (19%), inflation/cost of living (17%), and K-12 education (10%).

Core issues: The CNU poll found that the most important issues for voters at the ballot box were: threats to democracy -- matching inflation at 18% -- followed by health care (11%) and immigration (9%). For Republicans, immigration (20%) and cost of living (19%) rank highest, followed by crime (12%). Top issues among Democrats were: threats to democracy (31%), healthcare (19%), and inflation/cost of living (17%). Most Independents cited threats to democracy (19%), inflation/cost of living (17%), and K-12 education (10%).

Lieutenant Governor
State Senator Ghazala Hashmi, who represents the southern suburbs of Richmond, secured the Democratic nomination June 17, besting a competitive field of five male contenders.

Hashmi was an educator and academic administrator for 25 years before being elected in 2019 -- when she defeated incumbent Republican Glen Sturtevant, flipping the State Senate to Democratic control. If she wins in November, Hashmi will be the Commonwealth’s first South Asian and first Muslim statewide elected official.

In sharp contrast, Republican nominee John Reid is a boisterous conservative talk-radio host who previously served as Communications Director for former US Senator George Allen (R-VA), and who would be the first openly gay Republican in a statewide elected position nationwide. Reid, who was unchallenged in the primary, came under fire in April over alleged sexually explicit social media posts, prompting Youngkin to call for him to drop out of the race. Undeterred, Reid, who professed his innocence, refused.

Attorney General
The contest for Virginia's top cop, the only Attorney General (AG) race up in 2025, features a formidable challenge by former State Delegate Jay Jones to incumbent Republican State Attorney General Jason Miyares.

The race has far-reaching consequences as Democratic state AGs have become the first and last line of defense against Trump's unchecked assault on American democracy. In Virginia, the AG represents the Commonwealth in all legal matters and civil lawsuits, including enforcement of, or challenges to, election law.

Jones, a former Washington, DC Assistant Attorney General who had the early endorsements of former Democratic Governors Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe for his current bid, unsuccessfully challenged incumbent AG Mark Herring for the Democratic nomination in 2021. Herring lost the general election to Miyares, a former State Delegate and the first Hispanic elected statewide, by 0.81%.

However, in a controversial revelation that has upset the dynamics of the AG's race, and possibly others on the ballot, the National Review reported earlier this month that Jones had sent text messages in 2022 to a former colleague where he fantasized about the death of a prominent Republican and his family.

Miyares and Virginia Republicans publicly condemned the texts, as did Spanberger and Hashmi, but both stopped short of suggesting Jones, who issued a public apology, quit the race. According to the CNU poll, 75% of likely voters had heard of the texting scandal, and among those, 56% say the messages make them less likely to support Jones, including 68% of Independents. 39% of respondents said it would not impact their vote.

According to the October 21-23 Christopher Newport University (CNU) poll, in the Lieutenant Governor race, Hashmi (D) led Reid (R) 47%-45%, in a statistical dead heat, while 7% said they were undecided and 1% will vote for someone else. In the race for Attorney General, Miyares (R) and Jones (D) were essentially tied at 46%-45% respectively, 8% were undecided and 1% someone else.

According to the October 21-23 Christopher Newport University (CNU) poll, in the Lieutenant Governor race, Hashmi (D) led Reid (R) 47%-45%, in a statistical dead heat, while 7% said they were undecided and 1% will vote for someone else. In the race for Attorney General, Miyares (R) and Jones (D) were essentially tied at 46%-45% respectively, 8% were undecided and 1% someone else.

House of Delegates
All 100 House seats are on the ballot in November in what will be a hard-fought battle for control of the State House, which Democrats hold with a 51-49 seat majority.

As the House has changed partisan control in every election since 2019, Democrats are taking no chances in defending their 2023 majority. For the first time in modern history, Democrats have successfully recruited candidates in all 100 seats, including some of the reddest districts in the state. Republicans have fielded candidates in 82.

General race ratings have Democrats favored to win at least eight battleground districts that Republicans represent heading into the election, while Republicans are assured none.

In the CNU poll's Generic Ballot test for House of Delegates, the Democratic Party’s candidate leads the Republican Party’s candidate by 8 points, 51% to 43% -- a margin that has held steady for weeks.

Voter Resources and Mobilization
Virginia Democrats Voter information: Here
Virginia Democrats Voter Hotline: 844.4VA.VOTE/844.482.8683
Spanberger for Governor Phonebanks and GOTV Events: SignUp
Center for Common Ground Phonebanks to Black Voters: SignUp
NWPC-Virginia/Bay Area Coalition Phonebanks for Candidates: SignUp
Grassroots Democrats HQ /VA Democrats GOTV Phonebanks: SignUpVoter Protection Corps Resources and Election Counter Disinformation Trainings (Oct 30!): SignUp
United Steelworkers Voices: Voter Information for Every State: Here