DemDaily: 2026 US Senate Race Ratings. Spotlight Michigan
July 15, 2026
With the latest addition of North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis -- who announced that he was not running for reelection last month after clashing with Trump over his mega-spending bill -- there are now seven open seats in play among the 35 US Senate races up 2026.
Republicans are defending the larger share of seats, including three open seats. 18 of their total 22 are considered "safe" at present, leaving Democrats hope of flipping the four remaining vulnerable seats -- the net number needed to take back the chamber.
Those include top-targeted North Carolina, along with vulnerable GOP incumbents Susan Collins (Maine) and Joni Ernst (Iowa). DemList is moving Ernst from "likely" to "leaning Republican" in the wake of her “We’re all going to die” gaffe defending Trump's medicaid cuts, the entrance of a viable Democratic opponent to the race, and recent polling underscoring her vulnerability.
The fourth seat, Ohio -- where former Lt. Governor and interim Senator Jon Husted is serving out the remaining term of now-Vice President JD Vance -- remains in the "likely Republican" category as we await the decision of former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown on entering the race.
Races to Watch: Also upgraded, to "likely Republican," is Nebraska, where 2024 Independent Senate nominee Dan Osborn -- who came within 6% of beating incumbent Republican Deb Fischer -- announced he was challenging Senator Pete Ricketts (R) last week.
Alaska Democrats are enthused at the prospect of former at-large Congresswoman Mary Peltola challenging GOP Senator Dan Sullivan -- which would immediately elevate the race nationally. Insiders, however, say she may instead opt for the open gubernatorial contest.
| 35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election in 2026, with Democrats defending 13 seats and Republicans defending 22 seats. With a 54-47 GOP majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to flip a net four seats to retake the Senate. |
Of Democrats' 13 seats up in 2026, nine are viewed as safe, with the remaining -- Georgia, and three of their four open seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire -- among the GOP's top targets.
The Toss Ups
Spotlight: Michigan
Two-term Democratic Senator Gary Peters announced January 28 that he would not seek reelection, setting off a scramble of candidates in one of the nation's most critical battleground states.
Peters, who succeeded retiring Democratic Senator Carl Levin, was first elected in 2008 by more than 13% of the vote and was reelected in 2020 by less than 2%. Despite close contests, Republicans have not won a Michigan US Senate race since 1994.
After two decades of voting with the Democratic presidential candidates, Michigan succumbed to Trump in 2016 by 0.23% over Hillary Clinton. While Biden reclaimed "The Wolverine State" in 2020 by 2.78%, Trump took Michigan in 2024 with 49.73% to Harris' 48.31%.
Michigan and Georgia are the two Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in 2026 in states that Trump reclaimed in 2024.
Democrats nevertheless prevailed in the 2024 US Senate race to succeed retiring four-term Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, with Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) defeating former GOP Congressman Mike Rogers 48.64%-48.30%.
The Contenders
On the Democratic side, declared candidates include Congresswoman Haley Stevens (CD-11), State Senator Mallory McMorrow, former Wayne County Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services Director Abdul El-Sayed and former State House Speaker Joe Tate.
Stevens, first elected in 2018, represents suburban Oakland County, including many of Detroit's northern suburbs. In 2022, the newly redistricted 11th CD pitted Stevens against fellow Congressman Andy Levin in the Democratic primary, where she outspent him 5-to-1 and won 60%-40%. She won the general election with 61.3% and won reelection in 2024 with 58.2%.
A veteran of the Obama administration, she has the endorsements of former Governor James Blanchard, US House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, and fellow Michigan Congresswoman Hillary Scholten (CD-3).
McMorrow, the first Democrat to announce April 2, was elected to the Michigan Senate in 2018, unseating the incumbent Republican. She has served as State Senate Majority Whip since January 2023 and represents the 8th District, which includes part of the city of Detroit and some of its suburban communities. She has the endorsement of 12 sitting state legislators.
The "working-class firebrand" garnered national attention after her 2022 State Senate floor speech -- responding to a GOP lawmaker who erroneously accused her of sexually “grooming” children -- went viral. Her name recognition exploded after her speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention.
Administrator, Columbia University social epidemiology professor, widely published author, and CNN political contributor, El-Sayed most recently served as Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services Director for Wayne County until he resigned in April 2025 to run for US Senate.
He previously served as Executive Director of the Detroit Department of Health and Wellness Promotion before running unsuccessfully for governor in 2018 -- coming in second to Gretchen Whitmer in the Democratic Primary, 52.0%-30.2%. He subsequently founded political action committee Southpaw Michigan to help elect progressive candidates in Michigan, and, in 2020, served on the Biden–Sanders Unity Task Force on health care.
El-Sayed has the endorsement of two dozen legislators and local elected officials, as well as national progressive leaders US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Congressman Ro Khanna (CA-17), and Minnesota Attorney General and former Congressman Keith Ellison.
Tate, the former Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives and a former professional football player and Marine, entered the race on May 11.
Potential contenders: State Senator Sarah Anthony and State Attorney General Dana Nessel have also publicly expressed interest.
| Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: The most recent public poll of likely Democratic primary voters, conducted July 4-7 by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), shows Stevens leading with 24% support, followed by El-Sayed at 22%, McMorrow at 11%, and Tate trailing at 1%. Undecided accounted for 42% (MOE: ± 2.95%). |
Among Republicans, Rogers, a former seven-term member of Congress and 2024 GOP nominee for US Senate, is the clear frontrunner with minor primary opposition -- so far.
The former FBI special agent has been endorsed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (SD) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Senator Tim Scott (SC).
Rogers could face formidable opposition with Republican Congressman Bill Huizenga (CD-4) -- who is reportedly announcing his candidacy this month in defiance of national Republicans' efforts to keep him out of the race and avoid a nasty primary.
A June 12-16 Normington Petts (D) poll of likely general election voters showed Rogers in a tight race in head-to-head match-ups with McMorrow and Stevens.
Rogers led McMorrow on an uninformed ballot by about 48%-44%, but when voters were told more information about each candidate, McMorrow led by 4 points, 51%-47%. Stevens led Rogers 47%-45% on the uninformed ballot, and by a single point on the informed ballot, 49%-48% (MOE: ± 3.7%).
Michigan's primary will be held on August 4, 2026.
DemList will keep you informed.
Related
DemDaily: US Senate Race Ratings. Spotlight Georgia 7/10/25
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Sources: The Hill, Politico, Newsweek, Cook, Sabato, BlogsLSE, Ballotpedia, Detroit Free Press, Michigan Advance, National Review
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