DemDaily: 2026 Governors Races: The New Landscape!
June 18, 2026
Thirty-six states will elect governors in November. Now halfway through the primary season, general election opponents in many of 2026's Battleground contests have been decided -- with a few key primaries and runoffs still to unfold in the coming weeks.
Of the 50 US states, Democrats hold 23 gubernatorial seats to Republicans' 27. Of the five US territories, two are held by Democrats, two by Republicans, and one by an Independent.
An unprecedented number of seats are open in 2026 -- with nine Democrats and 10 Republicans term-limited or retiring -- setting the stage for a shift in the balance of power in statehouses nationwide.
| The 2026 Governors Races: Republicans and Democrats are each defending nineteen of the 36 gubernatorial seats up this year. Of those, Democrats are trying to hold onto five seats -- Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- which Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election. Republicans have only two seats -- New Hampshire and Vermont -- to protect in states Kamala Harris won. |
The Landscape
Democrats kicked off the election cycle with decisive victories in 2025's two gubernatorial races -- flipping Virginia and defending New Jersey.
The party has capitalized on that momentum, winning or overperforming in nearly 90% of the elections held since Donald Trump took office.
That is evident in the gubernatorial contests as well, with four races shifting ratings in the direction of Democrats in the last month.
Top Targets
ARIZONA
Governor Katie Hobbs, elected in 2022 with 50.3% of the vote, is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent. She is likely to face Congressman Andy Biggs (CD-5), a Trump-aligned Republican who has a substantial lead going into the July 21 GOP primary.
A May 5-7, 2026 Noble Predictive Insights poll of registered Arizona voters shows Hobbs leading Biggs 41%-37% in a hypothetical general election matchup (MOE: ± 3.1%).
GEORGIA
In the top targeted open seat to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Brian Kemp, former White House Office of Public Engagement Director and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms handily won the May 18 Democratic nomination with 56.2%, defeating six other candidates.
She will face billionaire Healthcare CEO Rick Jackson, who, in a major upset, defeated Trump-endorsed Lt. Governor Burt Jones in the June 16 Republican primary runoff 38.4%-32.5%. Jackson, a political newcomer, self-funded $100 million of his primary race.
A May 30-June 2, 2026 Concord Public Opinion Partners/ERNA poll of likely 2026 general election voters showed Lance Bottoms leading Jackson by 15% (53% to 38%) in a hypothetical general election matchup (MOE: +/- 4.3%).
IOWA
Democrats are looking to the open gubernatorial seat as a prime opportunity to make gains in the former Midwest battleground state where its agricultural economy is suffering under the president's tariff policies and the war in Iran.
The retirement of two-term Republican Governor Kim Reynolds gives Democrats hope of taking the seat for the first time in 15 years.
State Auditor Rob Sand, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will go head-to-head with Iowa businessman Zach Lahn, who, in a primary upset, edged out Trump-endorsed Congressman Randy Feenstra, 37.96%-37.19%.
The last public poll, conducted April 23-28 by Global Strategy Group (D) of likely Iowa voters, showed Sand leading Lahn 50%-41% in a hypothetical general election matchup.
| Governors serve four-year terms, except for Vermont and New Hampshire, where they serve for two years, but with no term limit. Virginia is the only state that limits its governor to one four-year term. Two-term limits are imposed in 37 states, and 13 have no term limits. |
NEVADA
First-term Governor Joe Lombardo, the GOP's most at-risk incumbent, is running for reelection in the purple-blue battleground state of Nevada.
Democrats won the state in four consecutive presidential cycles between 2008 and 2020, before Silver State voters flipped Nevada back to the Republican column in 2024, awarding Trump a 3.1% victory over Kamala Harris.
The former longtime Sheriff of Clark County, Lombardo unseated Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak in 2022 by just under 15,400 votes. He faces Democratic State Attorney General Aaron Ford, who handily won the June 9 primary with 63.8% of the vote.
A May 5-11, 2026 Global Strategy Group (D) of likely Nevada voters showed Lombardo and Ford in a statistical dead heat at 45%-42% in a hypothetical general election matchup (MoE ±3.7%).
WISCONSIN: In the critical swing state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried by less than 1%, two-term Democratic Governor Tony Evers is retiring. A crowded field of Democratic contenders is running in the August 11 primary in what is expected to be one of the country's most competitive gubernatorial general elections.
A new primary poll released today, conducted May 13-15, 2026 by Pollfish/The Great Lakes Perspective, showed former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes leading among seven candidates with 24.1%, followed by Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez at 12.3%, State Representative Francesca Hong with 8.5%, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 8%.
Of the remaining candidates, no one polled above 4%. Significantly, 38.8% were undecided (MOE:±4.2%).
In the Republican primary, Congressman Tom Tiffany (CD-7), who polled at 71.7%, is expected to easily capture the nomination. His primary opponent, medical service technician Andy Manske, secured 6.1%, and a notable 21.8% were undecided.
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Sources: Ballotpedia, Politico, WisPolitics, New York Times, CNN, BBC, DGA, TPSI, State Papers
