DemDaily: 2024 Governors Races: Update on the Landscape!
September 18, 2024
In addition to the presidential election, US Senate and House contests, and local races, there are gubernatorial elections up in 11 states and two territories in 2024.
Of the 50 US states, Democrats hold 23 gubernatorial seats to Republicans' 27. Of the five US territories, four are held by Democrats and one by Republican-leaning Independent.
As a state's highest-ranking elected official, Governors are administrators of their state, responsible for dictating policy and overseeing the budget, agencies, National Guard and its executive branch. The scope of gubernatorial power varies from state to state, most significantly with the level of veto authority.
Politically, governors are more independent -- in practice and in the eyes of the voters. 10 states have split partisan control between legislative chambers and the governor's mansion.
| The 2024 Governors Races: Republicans are defending eight of the 11 gubernatorial elections up in 2024 including Montana, Utah, and Vermont, and open seats in Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and West Virginia. Democrats are defending three open seats in Delaware, North Carolina and Washington. Gubernatorial elections will also be held in the US territories of American Samoa and Puerto Rico. |
The Landscape
While the 2020 presidential election marked a number of historic shifts in voter performance, the status of the 11 gubernatorial elections up that year remained relatively unchanged. One state, Montana, flipped political control - increasing Republicans' share of the nation's governorships to 27.
In the two 2021 gubernatorial elections, incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy narrowly won reelection, while Democrats lost the open Virginia seat vacated by term-limited Governor Ralph Northam to Republican Glenn Youngkin.
In the 36 2022 gubernatorial elections, Democrats defended 16 seats (three open) and Republicans defended 20 (5 open). Democrats flipped Maryland, Massachusetts and Arizona, and Republicans flipped Nevada, bringing the national total to 24 Democratic and 26 Republican governors.
Of the three 2023 contests, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat in an otherwise reliably red state, was easily reelected. Democrats lost Louisiana, held for two terms by moderate John Bel Edwards (D), and in Mississippi, Republican Governor Tate Reeves was reelected.
Top Targets
The top targeted seat is New Hampshire -- which Joe Biden won by 52.71% -- where four-term Republican Governor Chris Sununu is retiring.
Along with Vermont, it is one of two Republican-held gubernatorial seats up for election this year in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.
New Hampshire and Vermont are also the only two states where Governors serve two years, as opposed to the standard four. Neither state imposes term limits. Virginia is the only state to limit its governor to one term.
Former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) prevailed in the September 10 Democratic primary with 49.1% defeating New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (41.1%) and former Newmarket Town Councilor Jonathan Kiper (9.9%).
Former one-term US Senator Kelly Ayotte swept the six-candidate GOP primary with 65.9%.
In a September 11-12 post-primary poll of likely voters by Saint Anselm College Survey Center, Ayotte and Craig were neck-n-neck at 46% to 43% respectively (MOE: ±2.1 %).
North Carolina
Democrats' most vulnerable seat is the swing state of North Carolina, which Trump won by a mere 1.3% in 2020, and where incumbent Roy Cooper (D) -- who was on Kamala Harris' short list for VP -- is term-limited.
Two-term North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R) are locked in high profile, contentious contest amplified by the Republican's antisemitic, homophobic and sexist comments.
A former furniture manufacturer who gave a viral speech in defense of gun rights at a city council meeting in 2018, Robinson skyrocketed to election as lieutenant governor in 2020.
The race has broken fundraising records, with Stein reporting a total of $32.9 million raised as of the end of June -- more than double Robinson's total $15.8 million raised for his campaign.
While the Tar Heel State voters may favor Republicans in presidential elections -- they went with the GOP in nine of the last 10 presidential elections, except for Barack Obama in 2008 -- they elected a Democratic governor for but four years this century.
| A September 4-8 Quinnipiac survey of likely North Carolina voters showed Stein leading Robinson 54%-42%. The same poll showed Harris 49%, Trump 46%, Jill Stein 1% (MOE: ± 3.2%). |
Washington
The Evergreen State, where three-term Governor Jay Inslee is retiring, is one of two states -- along with California -- that holds a top-two primary, where all candidates are listed on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation.
Inslee's decision not to seek reelection set off a frenzy of gubernatorial hopefuls in the traditionally blue state where a Republican governor has not been elected since John Spellman left office in 1985.
29 candidates vied in the August 9 primary, with Washington State Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) securing 44.88% and former seven-term Republican Congressman Dave Reichert (2005–2019), who garnered 27.48%, advancing to the general election.
As of September 7, Ferguson had raised $10,198,845 with $3,071,369 cash on hand. Reichert had raised $4,875,059, with less than $975,000 on hand.
A September 3-6 Cascade PBS/Elway survey of registered voters showed Ferguson leading Reichert 50%-39% (MOE: ± 5%).
Related
DemDaily: The Status of Early Voting in Your State 9/17/24
Check Voting Resources in Your State! IWillVote.org
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Sources: Ballotpedia, Politico, WUNC, 538, USNews, AP
