DemDaily: The 2018 Senate Outlook

February 2, 2017

Democrats can't catch a break. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2018, 25 are held by Democrats
(including the 2 Independents that caucus with the Dems) and just 8 by Republicans.

Democrats currently hold 48 seats to Republicans 52. It will take a net gain of 3 seats for Democrats to take control of the Senate in 2018. It takes 51 votes to approve a bill, and 60 votes to block a filibuster.

Democrats hope to count on the historic edge of mid-terms gains favored by the Party outside the White House, as well as the negatives of a temperamental Trump presidency (at only 45% approval) and controversial Cabinet votes, but there is still plenty of time for the political landscape to shift - either way.

2018 Toss-Up Bill Nelson (D-FL), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Claire McCaskill (D-MO)

Our initial analysis of 2018 Senate contests places 15 races in the Safe D camp and 6 in the Safe R camp, leaving 12 races hanging in the balance as Lean or Toss Up: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Maine, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which is Chaired by Senator Chris Van Hollen (MD), is the campaign arm of the national Democratic Party, whose principle mission is to elect and re-elect Member of the US Senate.

2018 Senate Races

State Incumbent
Race Status State Incumbent Race Status
Arizona Jeff Flake (R) Lean R New Jersey Bob Menendez (D)
Safe D
California Dianne Feinstein (D)
Safe D
New Mexico Martin Heinrich (D)
Safe D
Connecticut Chris Murphy (D)
Safe D
New York Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Safe D
Tom Carper (D)
Safe D
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp (D) Lean D
Florida Bill Nelson (D) Tossup Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) Lean D
Hawaii Mazie Hirono (D)
Safe D
Pennsylvania Bob Casey (D) Lean D
Indiana Joe Donnelly (D) Tossup Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Safe D
Maine Angus King (I) Lean I/D Tennessee Bob Corker (R) Safe R
Ben Cardin (D)
Safe D
Texas Ted Cruz (R)
Safe R
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren (D)
Safe D
Utah Orrin Hatch (R)
Safe R
Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D)
Safe D
Vermont Bernie Sanders (I)
Safe I/D
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar (D) Safe D Virginia Tim Kaine (D)
Safe D
Mississippi Roger Wicker (R) Safe R Washington Maria Cantwell (D) Safe D
Claire McCaskill (D) Tossup West Virginia Joe Manchin (D) Lean D
Montana Jon Tester (D) Lean D Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin (D) Lean D
Nebraska Deb Fischer (R)
Safe R
Wyoming John Barrasso (R)
Safe R
Nevada Dean Heller (R) Lean R  

Check the Dailys for updates and pass it on!

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Sources: Cook Report, Rothenberg-Gonzales, Huffington Post, Sabato

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